Gilbert Gardiner names his top 40 SuperCoach players based on price and scoring potential for 2019
It’s Dusty v Danger for the title of No.1 SuperCoach pick in 2019, and Gilbert Gardiner says on price and scoring power, there’s one obvious choice. Who else makes his list?
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In Dusty we trust.
You just can’t go past the Richmond ace priced to be the best SuperCoach selection in 2019.
SuperCoach “arbitrage” is a term coined by our own well-heeled fantasy investor Dan Begala that, for punters not in the loop, effectively means buying high-powered stocks at bargain-basement prices.
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The secret to AFL SuperCoach, Australia’s biggest and best fantasy game with a $50,000 cash prize for the overall winner, is finding the balance between price and potential.
Martin epitomises that balance.
His price, based on last year’s performance - somewhat marred by niggling injuries and hunger issues - just doesn’t do justice the quality the scoring capabilities of the 2017 Brownlow Medallist and premiership hero.
Picking the top 40 players in SuperCoach was a difficult task, but the top five basically picked themselves, in order.
The top 40 was devised on the following SuperCoach principles: price, potential, balance, expectation and consistency.
Patrick Dangerfield is a nose behind Martin because he costs almost $100,000 more but has the added bonus of dual-position status, while Josh Kelly is ready to explode.
Brodie Grundy is just too expensive given the evenness of ruck stocks but must be included based on his massive scoring potential, while Rory Laird would be the first-picked defender in almost every team.
I took a few liberties, let’s call them wildcards, and hope to strike gold on that front.
Sam Walsh spearheads the draftees but 18-year-olds are few and far between in the top 40, with selectors (me) siding with mature-aged recruits.
Is Brett Bewley the next Tim Kelly or will pint-sized Bulldog Ben Cavarra boot bags of goals? I’m backing them in.
Adam Treloar and Marcus Bontempelli map nicely for strong 2019 seasons while Jack Macrae slid down the rankings based purely on price. If Macrae is able to replicate his 2018 season then the slick Bulldogs midfielder will be firmly in Gilbert Guidance’s mid-season sights.
Toby Greene edged out draftee Nick Blakey inside the top 20 while a couple of familiar faces snuck into the lower half of the draw.
With AFLX and JLT Series matches to come, there could be other players who emerge as worthy candidates ahead of Round 1. Stay tuned.
GILBERT GARDINER’S SUPERCOACH TOP 40
1. Dustin Martin ($563,800, Mid) Richmond
Pound for pound the most damaging player in the competition, able to accumulate possessions freely across the field and no stranger to bobbing up in the big moments with an important goal. Just ticks every box.
2. Patrick Dangerfield ($660,500, Mid-Fwd) Geelong
Will be the most popular player in SuperCoach bar none given scoring power and dual-position status. Only a few players in this competition are capable of punching out regular 150-point games and Dangerfield is one of them.
3. Josh Kelly ($617,800, Mid) GWS Giants
Forget last season when hampered by a groin injury, the Giants star and most tantalising out-of-contract player in the business is primed to rediscover the form which delivered him an All-Australian blazer in 2017.
4. Brodie Grundy ($708,200, Ruck) Collingwood)
Not beyond the realms for Grundy — the most expensive player in the game — to replicate last season and be the leading scorer, but hard to stomach the lofty price tag for a ruckman.
5. Rory Laird ($587,600, Def) Adelaide
A proven scorer and worthy of being the first-picked defender in any serious SuperCoach outfit.
6. Lachie Neale ($607,300, Mid) Brisbane
Flew under the radar at Fremantle and expect more of the same in Brisbane with Dayne Zorko still the primary tag target. Neale’s averaged 109 and 111 the past two years in an inferior midfield, loads more upside here.
7. Lachie Whitfield ($542,100, Def) GWS Giants
The Don Bradman of SuperCoach? Averaged 99.9 last season after 97.6 the year before. Get on now or forever hold your peace.
8. Jordan De Goey ($476,400, Fwd) Collingwood
Wildcard selection? Absolutely. Too high? Probably. But De Goey’s knack of kicking goals in bunches and then punching into the midfield makes the Dusty clone an irresistible cut-priced forward option after averaging a tick under 90 points last year. Expect him to settle around the ton.
9. Will Setterfield ($144,900, Mid-Fwd) Carlton
Hard to go past the 20-year-old former No.5 draft pick desperate to get his AFL career going after two seasons ravaged by injury at GWS Giants. Take on trust.
10. Brett Bewley ($117,300, Mid) Fremantle
Making every post a winner in the west is the mature-aged recruit, who earned an AFL lifeline after five seasons at VFL club Williamstown. The Dockers midfield is screaming out for hard and mature bodies a la Michael Barlow at his prime.
11. Max Gawn ($692,100, Ruck) Melbourne
Slipped 10 spots on last year only because of the price point. Like Grundy, head and shoulders above the next best ruckman.
12. Adam Treloar ($594,200, Mid) Collingwood
The apprenticeship is over for Treloar, who has averaged low 100s the past five seasons. With Dayne Beams at the club and Scott Pendlebury closer to the end than the beginning, the explosive midfielder looks primed to take the Pies’ No.1 midfield crown.
13. Marcus Bontempelli ($564,600, Mid) W.Bulldogs
Put a line through the last two years when Bontempelli, like the Bulldogs, laboured in the home-and-away season. Much like Treloar, the premiership-winning Bulldog boasts the class and experience to average 115-120 points.
14. Zach Merrett ($544,800, Mid) Essendon
Slight hiccup at training recently but ball magnet Merrett will be OK for Round 1 barring any further setbacks. Dylan Shiel’s arrival eases the burden on Merrett, who fell back to the pack a bit last year after an early concussion. Trampoline time.
15. Isaac Heeney ($529,200, Mid-Fwd) Sydney
We have been patient, we have been hopeful, and while Heeney’s back-to-back 97-point seasons is nothing to be sneezed at the Swans X-factor needs to find another gear. Backing him in but watching closely.
16. Dylan Shiel ($487,000, Mid) Essendon
Fell back to the pack last year - averaging high 80s - after nudging 100s the seasons prior. A new club and outlook, with luck from injury, bodes well for the explosive and evasive runner.
17. Isaac Quaynor ($153,300, Def) Collingwood
Built like a brick outhouse, the dashing Magpie has made all the right noises towards a possible Round 1 debut. Like all the draftees and recruits, watch closely in the JLT Series.
18. Jack Macrae ($689,700, Mid) W.Bulldogs
Broke out last year rivalling the likes of Grundy and Mitchell for top-billing before injury struck late in the season. Sheer weight of numbers works in Macrae’s favour but the price tag just too much this early in the piece. Certainly an upgrade target.
19. Sam Walsh ($207,300, Mid) Carlton
This KID will be the next GOAT if talk out of Princes Park sticks. The No.1 draft pick has not put a foot wrong this pre-season and left onlookers with mouths agape. Expensive yes but this might well be the cheapest we ever see Walsh.
20. Toby Greene ($354,600, Fwd) GWS Giants
Has all the tools and tricks to be a triple-figure scorer but injury and style makes Greene a dangerous selection for any serious SuperCoach. That said, at $354,600 it is impossible to ignore the Giants’ X-factor should he be cleared to play Round 1.
21. Nick Blakey ($166,800, Fwd) Sydney
One of the most talked about draftees for quite some time but with good reason. The son of a North Melbourne and Fitzroy gun has the size and temperament to figure early in the season.
22. Nic Newman ($394,100, Def) Carlton
Will get every chance to cement a role in the Blues’ 22 with Sam Docherty sidelined again. Scored well enough in Sydney to suggest should appreciate greater responsibility in Navy Blue.
23. Connor Rozee ($189,300, Def-Fwd) Port Adelaide
Bit pricey but looks a safe bet should he do enough in the JLT to press for selection. The South Australian can play across half-forward and press up onto the wing vacated by Jared Polec.
24. Aaron Hall ($389,200, Mid) North Melbourne
Wildcard III. Tempting price point and upside enormous but it has been quite some time since Hall last played consistently well enough to warrant selection. Injury cruelled the Tasmania-born speedster at Gold Coast last year also. With a clean run at it could be one of the SuperCoach recruits of the year.
25. Ben Cavarra ($117,300, Fwd) W.Bulldogs
Ticks a few boxes (price, job security, hunger, position) does the ex-Williamstown small forward thrown an AFL lifeline by the Bulldogs. The 20 year-old livewire booted 34 goals in the VFL last year. Will get his chance.
26. Andrew McGrath ($384,300, Def) Essendon
A late entry and straight into the top-30 the dashing former No.1 draft pick might be just about ready to blossom in his third campaign. McGrath averaged 70 last season and no reason why that number won’t surge towards three digits should he get some midfield minutes.
27. Chad Wingard ($481,100, Mid-Fwd) Hawthorn
Want to see Wingard in brown and gold before I decide to shell out that sort of money for the two-time All-Australian. A genuine rollercoaster player able to score 100s just as effortlessly as he banks 60-70 points.
28. Jarrod Berry ($434,300, Mid)
Tough midfield likely to get greater opportunity with Dayne Beams moving on. Need to see him perform on the big stage and get enough possessions regularly enough to warrant selection.
29. Chris Burgess ($123,900, Def-Fwd) Gold Coast
One of three state-league players picked up by the Suns and as we know, someone’s got to score points this season. The 22-year-old qualified teacher has the body to press for selection early.
30. Oliver Florent ($359,300, Mid) Sydney
Loads of talent and toughness, with the Swans perilously parked at the intersection of rebuild and slide the talented midfielder might just get his chance. Averaged 66 last year, capable of adding 20-odd points to that.
31. Luke Valente ($117,300, Mid) Fremantle
Draft slider sure to get his chance at Fremantle. Watch the JLT Series closely.
32. Marty Hore ($117,300, Def) Melbourne
A winner of back-to-back best-and-fairests for Collingwood’s VFL team, the dashing defender rates highly to pinch a spot in Simon Goodwin’s best 22.
33. Matthew Parker ($117,300, Fwd) St Kilda
Wildcard IV. Looks to have all the tools and just what St Kilda needs in the forward half: speed, hunger and x-factor, Parker just needs to put it all together and cement a spot in the line-up. If he can kick a goal or three a week and put on pressure inside 50m the Saints recruit could be a handy cash cow option.
34. Jack Scrimshaw ($149,800, Def) Hawthorn
One-time No.7 draft pick made just four appearances in two seasons at Gold Coast. Gets his chance to earn a spot in Alastair Clarkson’s team.
35. Ben McKay ($123,900, Def)
With Majak Daw sidelined emerging defender McKay might well slot into the Kangaroos back half as the third tall and intercept marking weapon. The Kangaroos have been patient with the powerful swingman.
36. Jackson Hately ($148,800, Mid) GWS Giants
Hard to break to into the Giants star-studded line-up but watch JLT Series closely for Hately looks ready-made for the rigours of AFL. Played 12 SANFL games last year and dominated in AFL Academy game against North Melbourne’s VFL team.
37. Taylor Walker ($343,500, Fwd) Adelaide
Dropped a stack of weight in the off-season and will be furious having watched the Crows plummet from a Grand Final to outside the eight last year. If the Crows rebound a lot of that will be off Walker’s boot.
38. Liam Stocker ($126,300, Mid) Carlton
Hard-working midfielder will get a chance to shine. Whether it is early or not that is yet to be determined, but profiles to not be out of place at the level. If he gets picked suspect Stocker will make it hard for Bolton to drop him.
39. Paul Ahern ($375,100, Mid) North Melbourne
Delivered for us last year as a late-season cash cow and therefore comes at a premium price for what is effectively a second-year player. Ahern oozes class and with added confidence could find a few more gears this season. Nice off-Broadway mid-priced option.
40. Tom Liberatore ($300,400, Mid) W.Bulldogs
Wildcard V. Hard to ignore at the price but coming back from second knee reconstruction just makes Libba that little bit of an awkward buy. Is a 95-point average acceptable/attainable? If so, get on.
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Originally published as Gilbert Gardiner names his top 40 SuperCoach players based on price and scoring potential for 2019
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