Fantasy Freako’s Round 2 SuperCoach formguide

Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako digs into the reasons behind Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy’s disappointing start. Plus this week’s trade tips and should we bench Sam Walsh?

Max Gawn of the Demons.

SuperCoach players across the country are questioning their ruck choices after the most popular — and expensive — choices flopped in Round 1.

Some have asked if ruck scores are taking a hit from the new 6-6-6 rule. The sample size is small at this stage to make a judgment on this, so we can only go on the numbers from the opening round. If we look at stoppages alone, there were an average of 82 per game in Round 1 – a slight drop from 91 per game in the corresponding round in 2018. Secondary stoppages remained the same – with an average of 11 per match across the opening round in both years.

DR SUPERCOACH: EXPERT VERDICT ON MID-PRICE GUNS

THE PHANTOM: TOP ROUND 2 CAPTAIN PICKS

HIT LIST: ROUND 2 SUPERCOACH TRADE TARGETS

WHO’S IN? ROUND 2 SELECTION GOSSIP

Notwithstanding these numbers, for the 48,161 SuperCoaches that paid top dollar for the set-and-forget ruck combination of Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn it was an underwhelming performance from the duo to start the year, with neither reaching the 100-point benchmark. Still, scores in the 80s aren’t disastrous, especially if we look at why both players struggled to impose themselves.

Gawn lowered his colours to Paddy Ryder and Scott Lycett – recording just 21 hitouts, his fewest in any game since Round 21, 2017. His eight hitouts-to-advantage were also the third-fewest in his past 28 matches.

He finished with 87 points and it has since been revealed that his preparation for the game wasn’t ideal due to a skin infection, and he even spent one day in hospital. In the aftermath, this paints a much clearer picture.

Max Gawn at Melbourne training this week.

Grundy struggled against Rhys Stanley, managing just 81 points, however his performance was riddled with negative SuperCoach acts. He lost a total of 27 points from his score mostly due to giving away five free kicks. These negative acts also included hitouts sharked and disposal clangers. Without these he could have scored 108 points, a figure that would have satisfied most SuperCoaches.

Surprisingly, plenty of impatient SuperCoaches have acted swiftly and removed one of the pairing – a move which goes against the SuperCoach mantra most of us abide by. If we look ahead to Round 2 and crunch the numbers, both should bounce back. Gawn has scored 139, 93 and 107 points respectively in his past three games against Geelong, whereas Richmond is Grundy’s third-most fruitful opponent. He averages 109 points against the Tigers which includes posting 115, 159 and 146 in his past three games.

Below are the top 15 scorers from Round 1 – looking at ruckmen only. The players have been sorted by hitout-to-advantage rate – with Paddy Ryder’s 43.8 per cent the highest of the group. He played second-fiddle to Scott Lycett, though, as the premiership Eagle attended 42 ruck contests. Gawn’s hitout-to-advantage rate of 38.1 per cent is encouraging, but the same can’t be said for Grundy (20.6 per cent).

Custom table

Player	Club	SC	Disposals	Ruck contests	Hitouts	Hitout Win %	Hitout To Adv %
Paddy Ryder	Port	68	8	29	16	55.2%	43.8%
Andrew Phillips	Carl	98	9	66	27	40.9%	40.7%
Max Gawn	Melb	87	13	45	21	46.7%	38.1%
Sam Jacobs	Adel	86	12	69	31	44.9%	35.5%
Dawson Simpson	GWS	85	8	71	32	45.1%	34.4%
Callum Sinclair	Syd	99	11	62	44	71.0%	29.5%
Toby Nankervis	Rich	127	17	67	34	50.7%	29.4%
Stefan Martin	Bris	82	13	47	18	38.3%	27.8%
Jarrod Witts	GC	87	13	89	44	49.4%	27.3%
Todd Goldstein	NM	102	12	72	34	47.2%	26.5%
Ben McEvoy	Haw	102	18	51	23	45.1%	26.1%
Jonathon Ceglar	Haw	81	8	29	16	55.2%	25.0%
Rhys Stanley	Geel	108	18	61	23	37.7%	21.7%
Brodie Grundy	Coll	81	18	73	34	46.6%	20.6%
Rory Lobb	Frem	82	11	25	6	24.0%	16.7%

ROOKIE RADAR

We often enter uncharted waters with our rookies in the season opener. That is, we’re not entirely sure which rookies to play on field and who to leave on the bench. It’s often a hit-and-miss approach and that definitely was the case in Round 1.

SuperCoaches who fielded Sam Collins (27), Chris Burgess (28) and Jack Petruccelle (44) would have been tearing their hair out, while those playing Darragh Joyce (67), Matt Parker (87) and Willem Drew (103) would have been smiling like a Cheshire cat.

Drew and NAB Rising Star nominee Bailey Scott were the poster boys for the cash cows, with both scoring 103 points. If you don’t own either, then you need to address this almost immediately. In saying that, I wouldn’t be making a move for them this week. Wait the extra week and see how they fare in Round 2. Their prices won’t change for another week anyway.

As we look ahead to Round 2, Collins is under an injury cloud with concussion. He managed only five disposals in the season opener, with a defensive role on Tim Membrey keeping him occupied. Should he be ruled out, it gives SuperCoaches the perfect opportunity to “double dip” via the bench loophole. That would mean nominating a defender such as Marty Hore as your emergency and hoping that he scores something upwards of 60 points. Should he reach that benchmark, that would enable you to leave Collins on the field to take advantage of Hore’s score. The fact that Gold Coast’s game against Fremantle is the final one of the round strengthens this approach.

In terms of fielding rookies, I would be looking to play Jack Scrimshaw and Jordan Clark in defence and both Charlie Constable and Scott in the midfield. That could potentially result in the benching Sam Walsh. In attack, Will Setterfield, Parker and Drew should all feature in your starting team.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Richmond v Collingwood

Jack Riewoldt was the only Tiger to average more than 100 points in the three matches between these sides in 2018. Brodie Grundy dominated for the Magpies, averaging a team-high 140 points.

Sydney v Adelaide

No Swan scored more points in wins at the SCG last season than Lance Franklin, averaging 119 points from five games. On the road last season, it was Rory Laird who led the way in Adelaide wins with a return of 116 points per game.

Essendon v St Kilda

Zach Merrett’s dismal 16 disposals and 67 points in the season opener were his lowest Round 1 returns in both measure since his debut season in 2014. Matthew Parker led the Saints for scoreboard impact on his AFL debut – scoring 87 points.

Port Adelaide v Carlton

Tom Rockliff had a round-high 44 disposals and 31 uncontested possessions in Round 1, piling on 138 points against Melbourne. Nic Newman starred on his Carlton debut with 26 disposals, 17 uncontested possessions and 134 points.

Geelong Cats v Melbourne

Tim Kelly averaged 22 disposals, six score involvements and 94 points at GMHBA Stadium last season. Angus Brayshaw had 23 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 87 points in the Round 18 loss to the Cats at the same venue.

Geelong’s Tim Kelly has made a great start to the season.

West Coast v GWS Giants

Dom Sheed is on track for a breakout season after starting with 38 disposals and 144 points against the Lions. Tim Taranto is another breakout contender, having 30 disposals, 10 tackles and 112 points against the Bombers.

North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Bailey Scott is the NAB Rising Star nominee for Round 1 after starring against the Dockers, finishing with two goals and 103 points. Alex Witherden was solid in defence against the Eagles, scoring 97 points.

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

James Worpel led the Hawthorn charge in Round 1 against the Crows, finishing with team-highs of 27 disposals and 110 points. Jack Macrae was workmanlike as always in the Dogs’ win over the Swans, scoring 132 points.

Gold Coast v Fremantle

Brayden Fiorini was the top-ranked Gold Coast player in Round 1 with 118 points from 30 disposals and six tackles. Darcy Tucker’s strong pre-season form continued against North Melbourne, finishing with 119 points.

Originally published as Fantasy Freako’s Round 2 SuperCoach formguide