Fantasy Freako examines the likely SuperCoach winners from changes to kick-in rules
Of the nine AFL rule changes this year, changes to kick-ins have the most potential to up-end SuperCoach scoring. Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako reveals who to watch.
Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako will write exclusively for heraldsun.com.au in 2019. In his first column he examines the winners and losers from changes to the kick-in rules.
The new kick in rule has been one of the most discussed topics by SuperCoaches this pre-season. As one of a number of changes made by the AFL for the 2019 season, the kick-in has received a makeover, with the traditional kick-in to self no longer a part of the game.
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With the man on the mark now positioned 10m from the top of the goalsquare, the designated kick-in player isn’t required to kick the ball to himself before leaving the square after a behind, instead, he can play on if he chooses to. Champion Data has reacted to the change and has altered its kick-in definition. Below is a brief outline from the AFL’s official statistician of how the rule will play out in 2019:
“As per previous seasons, there will be no disposal given when a player kicks in while clearly still in the square. Once the player steps completely out of the square before kicking in, then this will count as a disposal, similar to past seasons after a kick-in to self. All handballs will be counted as disposals regardless of where the player is standing.”
In terms of SuperCoach scoring from a kick-in, nothing will change. If the player chooses to kick from within the square, all effective kick-ins will earn one point, as in previous seasons. Ineffective kick-ins will continue to be worth zero points, while a kick-in clanger will result in a four-point deduction. If the player chooses to play on and leave the square, then all kicks will be considered general play kicks and will be judged accordingly — that is, either effective, ineffective or a clanger.
As a result of the aforementioned change, SuperCoach scores could significantly increase for players who decide to take advantage of the extra space. We could also see a major shift in the protype of the kick-in player, with quick, line-breaking players such as Adam Saad and Conor McKenna likely to be used in this role, instead of key-position types such as Michael Hurley and Scott Thompson.
TOP KICK-IN PLAYERS IN 2018
If we look at the top 50 kick in players from 2018, Jake Lloyd (151) that led the competition, taking 22 more than second-placed Shannon Hurn. Alex Witherden took 126, while Luke Ryan (107) and Nathan Wilson (105) rounded out the top-five.
Lloyd enters this season as the most expensive defender in SuperCoach after piling on 259 more points than any other defender in 2018, averaging a career-high 112 points. He took his ball-winning to another level, reaching 30 disposals in eight games.
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The new rule shouldn’t hurt his scoring, instead, it provides him with an opportunity to improve his numbers should he choose to play on more often. Historically, the Swans are very difficult convert shots at goal against, conceding a scoring accuracy of 53.8 per cent over the past three seasons, the lowest percentage of any side in the league.
Should that trend continue, Lloyd should once again have plenty of opportunities to bring the ball back into play after a behind.
If we analyse the top 50 kick in players based on their kick in self-percentages, Christian Salem was the most attacking-minded in 2018, playing on from 65.9 per cent of kick ins, well ahead of Heath Shaw (57.1 per cent). Bailey Williams (56.1 per cent), Tom Stewart (56 per cent) and Kade Simpson (50 per cent) were the only other players to reach the 50 per cent benchmark.
These players look like attractive options based on the new rule, but the biggest potential improvement in SuperCoach scoring is likely to come from players who didn’t play on often from kick ins.
This brings the likes of Luke Ryan, Blake Hardwick, Ryan Burton and Jayden Short into the equation. Ryan has the most upside of this group, as he ranked equal-eighth in the league for points per game by defenders (90). As he prepares for his third season in the AFL, he could potentially nudge the 100-point mark with natural progression. If that is to eventuate, then a change in mindset is a must, as he has played on from just three of the 140 kick-ins he has taken as a Docker.
Another player poised for a potential spike in scoring is Jayden Short. He took a major step forward last season and improved his scores by 27 points per game, ranking No.1 in the AFL for metres per game of all general defenders. He ranked equal-eighth in the league for total kick-ins and, with the exception of Kade Simpson (50), no defender kicked long more often than Short (43) from all kick-ins taken.
FINAL WORD
One player that doesn’t feature in either of the above-mentioned tables is Zac Williams. He missed the entire home-and-away season through injury, but returned for the finals series and led the Giants for kick-ins with 13, eight more than Lachie Whitfield.
However, it’s worth noting that Heath Shaw was out injured, so Williams may not be the designated kick-in player in 2019.
Regardless, Williams is the prototype defender we are looking for, a player who boasts both speed and a penetrating kick. Priced at $407,800, he’s close to a must-have to start with if you’re looking for a player with significant upside.
Last season’s nemesis Michael Hibberd, could once again be a viable SuperCoach option if veteran Jordan Lewis relinquishes kick-in duties. In 2018, Lewis led the Demons for kick-ins with 72, with Hibberd managing a measly 14 — well down from the 56 he took in 2017, his All-Australian season.
In that year, Hibberd played on from 61 per cent of kick ins, the highest percentage of the top-50 kick in players. Hibberd is no doubt on plenty of “never again” lists after his mediocre SuperCoach returns of last season, but if there is any sign that he’s once again handed the important kick-in role, at $398,700 he’s too cheap to ignore.
Take note, kick-in duties should be just one of several factors to consider when picking SuperCoach defenders. Ball-winning ability and intercept play are just as important, so finding a player that ticks all three boxes could hold the key to SuperCoach success in 2019.
Good luck!
Follow @FantasyFreako on Twitter and get more of his SuperCoach analysis in Champion Data’s 2019 AFL Prospectus — order your copy here.
Originally published as Fantasy Freako examines the likely SuperCoach winners from changes to kick-in rules