Champion Data Round 3 KFC SuperCoach formguide
Which trade moves should you make this week? Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako reveals the key numbers you need to know plus his new rule for picking a captain in 2020.
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Data is king in KFC SuperCoach and even though two rounds isn’t an enormous sample size, it’s definitely useful when looking at scoring trends.
If we break down the top 10 scorers in the competition by position, the list comprises of four midfielders, four ruckmen, one defender, and one forward.
This is in stark contrast to the opening two rounds of last season, when the top 10 was made up of nine midfielders and one defender. No rucks in sight!
So how do we use this data to our advantage?
One of the most crucial decisions we face weekly is our captain and, based on the early data, the numbers suggest that we should be loopholing and captaining ruckmen only.
Let’s use last round as a case in point.
After Brodie Grundy scored a respectable 115 points on Thursday night, plenty of SuperCoaches decided to look elsewhere for a captain. Personally, I was caught up in the romance of captaining Patrick Dangerfield in his 250th AFL match at GMHBA Stadium – a venue where he has posted unbelievable numbers as a Cat.
As it turns out, he just ticked over 100 points and, in the end, I lost out on 28 points had I kept Grundy’s VC score.
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The smart choice would have been to captain Max Gawn, as he was coming up against an inexperienced ruckman in Marc Pittonet. Gawn didn’t disappoint and piled on a round-high 184 points. Multiply that by two and you have 368 points as your captain – considerably more than the 202 from Dangerfield.
The term “ceiling” is often used in fantasy to refer to a player’s top-end scoring potential, and in hindsight Gawn’s ceiling was a lot higher than Dangerfield’s. I won’t be making the same mistake again.
If we look at the top 10 individual scores over the two rounds, ruckman make up four of that group, as highlighted below:
TOP 10 SCORES OF 2020
Jack Viney (Melb) — 186
Ben Cunnington (NM) — 184
Max Gawn (Melb) — 184
Brodie Grundy (Coll) — 179
Lachie Neale (Bris) — 171
Matt Rowell (GC) — 171
Todd Goldstein (NM) — 164
Dylan Shiel (Ess) — 163
Reilly O’Brien (Adel) — 162
Zach Merrett (Ess) — 159
If we look at points conceded to ruckmen over the two rounds, the numbers suggest that the Giants are the most vulnerable – conceding an average of 128 points, the most of any side. Adelaide (120) and Western Bulldogs (111) are next worst.
Interestingly, the Giants and Bulldogs play each other this round, while the Crows come up against Gold Coast and Jarrod Witts.
As for the stingiest, Brisbane has given up the fewest (71) – followed by Hawthorn (72) and Sydney (73). The Lions face the Eagles on Saturday night, which will give more ammunition to coaches looking to trade Nic Naitanui.
ROOKIE WATCH
If you didn’t own Matthew Rowell last round, then you would have had a couple of restless nights. His price boomed by $77,600 after scoring a massive 171 points in the Suns’ shock win over West Coast.
Rowell now enters the next round with the lowest break-even (-91) of any player in the league, so another prise rise is on the horizon.
With the shortened season, player prices now change after a player’s second match and this round we have a host of bubble boys to choose from.
There were debuts for Trent Rivers, Tom Berry, Ned McHenry and Laitham Vandermeer in Round 2. Also, Marc Pittonet, Harley Bennell and Darcy Cameron all made their club debuts – so there is no shortage of options.
Depending on your team, if funds allow then Pittonet looks an outstanding option, especially if you held on to the injured Sam Naismith.
If you already have two gun rucks, then there is an argument to pick Pittonet as R3 and let his price grow – similar to Reilly O’Brien from last season.
It could also save you a trade later on in the season should one of your rucks miss a game.
Cameron showed plenty on his Collingwood debut, but Mason Cox’s pending return could throw a spanner in the works. Cameron clunked three contested marks and provided an option in attack.
Bennell got through unscathed in the Demons’ narrow win, scoring 59 points from just 50 per cent game time. His minutes are likely to increase over the coming rounds as he builds his fitness base. Teammate Rivers looked right at home in defence, hitting the
target with 10 of 12 disposals. As a dual-position player, Rivers looks to be a shrewd acquisition.
Without the luxury of five trades at our disposal – make sure you use your two trades wisely ahead of Round 3.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tigers vs Hawks
Bachar Houli returned with a bang last round, scoring 111 points from 26 disposals and 19 uncontested possessions. Isaac Smith finished with 16 disposals, one tackle and 88 points against the Cats.
Bulldogs vs Giants
After spending half of last round’s game on a wing, Jack Macrae could manage only 93 points against the Saints. Josh Kelly was also below his best, managing 89 points against the Kangaroos.
Kangaroos vs Swans
Todd Goldstein played 100 per cent game time in Round 2 and was the top-ranked player on the ground with 164 points. Dane Rampe was rock solid in defence against the Bombers, scoring 149 points.
Magpies vs Saints
Scott Pendlebury could manage only 79 points against the Saints when these side last met in Round 9 last season. Jack Billings finished with 29 disposals and 100 points that day.
Cats vs Blues
Joel Selwood led the way last week against the Hawks with 151 points – his highest score at GMHBA Stadium since Round 11, 2017. Ed Curnow scored 126 points from 29 disposals when he last played there in Round 23, 2019.
Lions vs Eagles
Dayne Zorko averages 111 points in wins at the Gabba since the start of last season – ranked second at the Lions. Andrew Gaff is one of six Eagles to average three figures in wins interstate since last season with 102 points.
Suns vs Crows
Matthew Rowell’s score of 171 in his second career match ranks as the second-best among 18-year-olds on record. Chayce Jones suffered a minor price drop of $400 after scoring 52 points in the Showdown.
Bombers vs Demons
Darcy Parish was the only Essendon player to average three figures at the MCG last season (101). Clayton Oliver was one of two Demons to average 100-plus points at the venue (101) – ranking second overall.
Dockers vs Power
Michael Walters ranks second in the AFL among forwards for points scored, posting 148 last week. Connor Rozee leads all forward scorers on the back of scoring 125 and 145 points respectively.
MORE SUPERCOACH TIPS:
KFC SuperCoach Round 3 trade ratings: Which players should you bring into your team?
Rookie ratings: KFC SuperCoach rookies you must buy ahead of Round 3
Doctor’s Orders: Four KFC SuperCoach mid-pricers under the microscope for Round 3
Originally published as Champion Data Round 3 KFC SuperCoach formguide