AFL SuperCoach Round 10 trade ratings: Should you target Shannon Hurn, Lachie Whitfield or Jake Lloyd first?
How do you choose between the top-three SuperCoach defenders this year — Shannon Hurn, Lachie Whitfield and Jake Lloyd? ROUND 10 TRADE RATINGS
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Prioritising which premiums to add first is always tough.
With so little splitting top defensive picks Shannon Hurn, Lachie Whitfield and Jake Lloyd this year, price and bye structure should ultimately determine which you target.
If you’ve already got the top defensive trio, you’re well ahead of the pack.
If you need Whitfield and Lloyd, in particular, the next two weeks represent a prime opportunity to jump on before their prices start to head north.
You’ll find success hard to come by in the second half of the campaign without Hurn, but with his Round 13 bye on the horizon you might need to wait before paying top dollar for the Eagles captain.
WE RATE YOUR TOP ROUND 10 TRADES*
Matt Parker to Robbie Young (4941 trades)
Tim: I had a feeling this would be the No. 1 trade this week. Parker scored 87 and 89 in his first two games but has only managed better than 60 twice since. His price dropped by $11,400 after scoring 30 against Collingwood and he has a break even of 90. Young only had eight disposals but kicked two goals and scored 69 on debut. The Saints play Carlton this week and Parker could score well, but in all likelihood you aren’t losing much by moving him on.
Al: Parker is clearly crying out to be traded. He lost $11,400 last week and is set to plunge further, so grabbing Young a week early would avoid that loss. However, risks of going a week early on a rookie have been well-documented and Young’s output won’t be much greater considering his 69 last week came from eight disposals, four tackles and two goals.
Willem Drew to Robbie Young (3692 trades)
Tim: Watch the teams this week. Drew had 32 disposals in the SANFL after being dropped by Port Adelaide, mounting a strong case for a senior re-call. You’ll want to hold him for bye cover if he’s back in the Power team. He could also be valuable in Round 10 if Patrick Dangerfield misses due to injury. You can always grab Young next week before his price rise.
Al: Drew is a different case to Parker — his break even of 64 is gettable if he returns to the side this week. But he’s also worth almost $100k more which could open the door for a trade to Travis Boak or another gun forward. If that’s the play I don’t have an issue with it.
Zac Williams to Lachie Whitfield (1607 trades)
Tim: Not the first time we’ve seen this feature in the top-10 trades of the week. I urged caution last time as there was a strong case for Williams being a finishing D6 or D7. But Whitfield is shaping as the No. 1 defender by average of the year, vying with Shannon Hurn and Jake Lloyd. If you’re chasing rankings glory then you need to be aggressive. With Williams to miss due to a hamstring injury, you can afford to make this move. But if league success is your priority, find another way to get Whitfield.
Al: Torn on this one. Williams is travelling well enough to hang on to as a sixth defender in a finished team, but injuries at the Giants always ring the alarm bells — it’s not unusual for a one-weeker to stretch way beyond that. If you don’t have Whitfield (or Jake Lloyd) it’s hard to argue against using an extra trade.
Xavier Duursma to Lachie Whitfield (1596 trades)
Tim: Like this trade a lot. Duursma (avg 68.5) has been serviceable as either a defensive on-field option or midfield cover, but with only two rounds left before Port Adelaide’s bye you can safely upgrade him. Whitfield still has a break even of 117 so you could wait another week, but the sooner you add one of the top defensive scorers of the year (avg 116.8) the better. GWS has the Round 14 bye so you’ll get four games from Whitfield before he has another rest. You’ll need $233,500 in the bank to facilitate this trade.
Al: This makes sense. I’m still OK with fielding Duursma as I’ve got bigger issues but he’s not going to make much more than his current $192k profit and Whitfield is a must-have.
Jack Petruccelle to Robbie Young (1222 trades)
Tim: If you can wait another week before adding Young, hold fire. Petruccelle has an average of 56.6, more than his Round 10 break even of 52. There’s no issue holding the West Coast flyer for another game before making this move ahead of Round 11. However, if you need the $159,000 profit to grab a premium scorer, you might need to trade Petruccelle this week and take the risk on Young.
Al: No urgency here. Jack is plugging along with 50-60 scores and won’t lose much value, giving us another week to look at Young. If you make the move and Young scores 20 this week, how will you feel about it?
Xavier Duursma to Jake Lloyd (1019 trades)
Tim: Hopefully you already have one of Lloyd and Lachie Whitfield so you don’t have to prioritise between the two. It would be a coin toss if you could only have one, but Whitfield has the more favourable Round 14 bye. At $556,700 and with a break even of 108, it’s the perfect time to jump on Lloyd.
Al: See above answer re: Whitfield. Lloyd is likely to be one of the top-three defenders this year so you want him at some point, but beware he has the nasty Round 13 bye (same applies to Shannon Hurn).
Liam Baker to Robbie Young (909 trades)
Tim: Baker hadn’t scored less than 72 before his 54 at the weekend, a strong record from a player who started the year with a slightly elevated rookie price tag. I’d be inclined to hold Baker for another week before trading for Young. As a worst-case scenario, Baker might lose $10k if he scores another 50 against Essendon.
Al: Watch the Tiger teams this week — Daniel Rioli is a likely inclusion for Dreamtime at the G and Baker might be the unlucky player who makes way. If that happens I don’t mind the trade, but well done to the 44,000 coaches (not including me) who made almost $170k off the small forward.
Reilly O’Brien to Darcy Fort (893 trades)
Tim: Chris Scott flagged the likelihood Esava Ratugolea and Rhys Stanley will be recalled, so have a back-up plan to downgrade O’Brien. Although Fort was outstanding on debut, Scott has shown with Charlie Constable he’s not afraid to make ruthless calls. If you have Patrick Bines sitting on your forward bench, you can swing him to R3 and turn O’Brien into a forward premium or rookie. I’m eyeing off O’Brien to Travis Boak.
Al: I tipped this! Fort was in the team I picked in December, when I was hoping he would be Geelong’s No. 1 ruckman. That didn’t quite work out but I was pleased to see him ton up on debut. Having said that, I’m in no rush to trade him into my side, but then I don’t have O’Brien and his $398k sitting on my ruck bench. A trade would free up $281k and given the problems we’re having getting cash out of other rookies, that’s too good to pass up.
Michael Gibbons to Joe Atley (797 trades)
Tim: Atley managed 66 points from 19 disposals in his first appearance of the year for Port Adelaide. His job security is a worry with Willem Drew lurking and Ollie Wines expected back after the Power’s Round 12 bye. Contested-ball winners are SuperCoach gold and that’s what Atley bases his game on. But if you can afford to hold off another week to see if he’s worth the punt, do so. It will mean he only plays one game before his bye but you will have a better indication of whether he’s a long-term prospect.
Al: If I was going to go early on a rookie this week, Atley would be my pick. He had 19 disposals on debut last weekend (66 SuperCoach points) and should hold his spot for a few weeks. Gibbons’ time has come.
Xavier Duursma to Shannon Hurn (765 trades)
Tim: Hard to argue with grabbing the top defender of the year to date. Hurn is the sixth-best scorer of the year overall and has been the biggest beneficiary of the new kick-in rules. His $585,300 price tag might put some coaches off but he’s worth it if you’ve been building a war chest for this type of move. Just check your bye structure first as he’s off in Round 13.
Al: See above verdict on the Duursma to Whitfield and Lloyd trades. I had Hurn in my team for a lot of the pre-season and wish he was still there, but I’m waiting until after Round 13 — when the Eagles share a bye with Collingwood, Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney and Brisbane — to pick him up.
*Trades as of 3pm Wednesday
Originally published as AFL SuperCoach Round 10 trade ratings: Should you target Shannon Hurn, Lachie Whitfield or Jake Lloyd first?
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