AFL finals 2020: We analyse the key match-ups, ins and outs for each big match
The finals kick off on Thursday night and with no key players on the injury list, Joel Selwood is confident Geelong couldn’t be in a better position to make a deep run for the premiership.
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Careful management and a bit of luck has Geelong ready to hit the finals series in the best shape it has been in for several years, according to Joel Selwood.
Just Nathan Kreuger (knee), Nakia Cockatoo (wrist) and Charlie Constable (tongue) sit on Geelong’s injury list, giving the club a remarkable bill of health heading into its Qualifying Final against Port Adelaide on Thursday.
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The Cats have been cautious with a range of players, including Selwood, to make sure the team is firing at the right time and a strong session on Saturday night showed the plan had worked.
“It was as quick and as fast as I have seen us run around for a long while, so that is a great sign,” Selwood said of that session.
“We are as healthy as we have ever been, which is really exciting for our group.
“We have limped into some finals at times, but right now there is a buzz around in these corridors.
“We’re really looking forward to what we can put out there.”
The Cats will enter Thursday night’s final against the Power with no excuses, but with plenty of recent baggage.
Geelong has won in the first week of the finals just once since 2011 from seven attempts, but Selwood said the playing group this year was unlike those that had come before.
“We’re different, we are different to what we have been before,” he said.
“Mentally, I think the group has really grown.
“Those games where we have been behind this year and there is limited time on the clock but we have managed to find a way and grind away.
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“We have had a great year to date and matured along the way and it’s been a fair journey up to now.
“We’re really looking forward to starting a new season right now.
“What we do is prepare as we normally would and treat it as Round 19 but understand that there is plenty at stake.”
The Cats flew to Adelaide on Wednesday and held a final light session during the afternoon in preparation.
Alongside the pressure on Geelong winning its first final is the past history of falling out of contention in preliminary finals but when asked what a pass mark would be for this campaign, Selwood refused to entertain the future.
“The pass mark is literally just looking at Thursday night and making sure we get the job done,” he said.
TRELOAR: MAGPIES READY FOR MIDFIELD REDEMPTION
– Glenn McFarlane
Collingwood is confident a week-long strategy aimed at overcoming its goalkicking woes ahead of Saturday night’s elimination final against West Coast can fuel its charge back into the premiership race, according to star midfielder Adam Treloar.
While the Magpies will go into the Eagles’ clash at a hostile Perth Stadium as rank outsiders, Treloar insisted they can turn what looks like mission impossible in the eyes of many into a platform for one of its most memorable finals victories.
Part of that comes from a “fire in the belly” of the Magpie midfielders who were “smashed” by their Eagles counterparts after quarter-time in the Round 8 clash where the home side dominated clearances and possession, leading to a 66-point whitewash.
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Treloar’s confidence also stems from the work he and his team have put into that all-important last kick inside 50m, which has caused the Magpies so much grief this season.
Collingwood hasn’t kicked 12 or more goals since Round 3 and has struggled to kick winning scores against the best opposition in recent months.
“It’s definitely a mindset of (’them against us’) going in,” Treloar told News Corp.
“We know it is an almighty challenge for us and a huge task considering they (West Coast) are a team that is fully fit, minus a couple of players, in front of a very, very hostile crowd … (but) what better way to silence the crowd and get the job done.
“It fires you a little bit. We pride ourselves on playing well in big games and performing on the big stage, and there aren’t too many bigger stages than this.”
Treloar revealed the Collingwood players – particularly the midfielders – are still smarting about what happened the last time they played at the venue.
After a strong start, the Eagles took control of the game through their dominance in the middle and inflicted the Magpies’ worst defeat of the year on them.
“They really smashed us there and they dominated clearance and possession,” he said. “It is something we know is going to be a big factor in the result of this game, and I know we are up for the challenge.
“They (West Coast) are a quality midfield group – probably the best midfield group with the All-Australian ruckman (Nic Naitanui).
“(But) there is a fire in the bellies of our players. I know we can rise to the occasion.
“We know we let ourselves down (last time) … ultimately they went and got easy ball inside 50m, which sort of left our backs out to dry.
“We don’t want our season to end. We want to win the flag, that’s what we want to do.”
He said the group had worked hard at training on moving the ball more effectively into the forward half, something he believes can bring about a swift scoring turnaround and assist key forward targets Jordan De Goey, Mason Cox and Brody Mihocek.
“We need to give ourselves a greater opportunity (going inside forward 50m), whether it is missing the kick or choosing the wrong option,” he said.
“We have spent a lot of time with that connection work in the last week and on how we want to move the footy.”
The Magpies have been in strict quarantine since arriving in Perth, but Treloar said the players were confident its past record on performing well of the road can produce a big upset against their old rivals West Coast.
SUPER PREVIEW: EVERY FINALS MATCH ANALYSED
– Sam Landsberger
The fixture for the first week of the 2020 AFL finals has been revealed, with dates, times and venues confirmed.
Herald Sun footy expert Sam Landsberger has previewed all the clashes below.
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
West Coast v Collingwood (8.10pm on Saturday, October 3 at Perth Stadium)
Steele Sidebottom is staying home and a queue of Eagles are coming back. Norm Smith Medallist Luke Shuey (hamstring) trained on Monday and was joined by Jeremy McGovern (hamstring), who is firming to make a shock return. Jamie Cripps will slot back in after leaving the Queensland hub early for the birth of his baby boy, Reif, although the Eagles on Tuesday shut down Elliot Yeo’s (groin) hopes of a return this season. Josh Kennedy (ankle), Mark Hutchings (hamstring), Jack Redden (thumb) Lewis Jetta (calf) are all likely to be available, too. Perhaps Adam Simpson should send Gill a “thankyou” card for retaining the pre-finals bye.
COLLINGWOOD will fly to Perth and spend seven days in hotel quarantine at Joondalup Resort before the elimination final, while West Coast started its 14 days of home quarantine on Friday. The Eagles are only allowed to travel between their homes and the club for training and are subject to police checks. They are set to request permission to have a session at Perth Stadium while in quarantine, although will need approval from WA health authorities. The Magpies can train in Joondalup but they cannot leave. How the AFL received a government exemption for the visiting club to only quarantine for seven days remains a mystery to everybody. Will that time spent cooped up suck the life out of either side? Or steel them?
MASON Cox ranks equal-third in the AFL for contested marks since Round 13, behind only Jack Darling (West Coast) and Rory Lobb (Fremantle) and level with Harry McKay (Carlton). That’s the good Mason. The bad Mason was the one Trent McKenzie made look like a statue at times on Monday night as he ran around him, and if McGovern returns then West Coast’s intercepting weaponry will seriously alarm the Magpies.
Jordan De Goey changes the forward line’s complexion although Jaidyn Stephenson continues to tease and teeter on the edge. Brad Sheppard should go to De Goey and if the out-of-contract Magpie turns it on and kicks Collingwood into a semi-final then list boss Ned Guy should hand him a blank cheque after the game.
LAST TIME THEY MET: West Coast 18.3 (111) defeated Collingwood 6.9 (45) at Perth Stadium in Round 8
THE VERDICT: West Coast by 12 points, with the Magpies’ sound defensive system keeping them alive for most of the game at a venue they rolled the Eagles at last year.
ODDS: West Coast $1.40, Collingwood $2.90
SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs (4.40pm on Saturday, October 3 at the Gabba)
BRETT Ratten took his players to Sunshine Beach at dawn on Monday for a bonding session. As they gazed over the sunrise and reset for the finals the message was clear – let’s not get swept up in simply reaching the finals, let’s go out and land some punches.
SPEEDSTER Zak Jones has one week to prove he has overcome a hamstring strain. Jack Lonie – playing against a team that wants him next season – secured his place in the best 22 last week, although pulled up a little bit sore and will also need to heal in time. So who goes out if Jones and Lonie are fit? Is it Jake Carlisle, who could need to tend to the birth of his child soon, or is it Dean Kent? Carlisle came into the team for the Round 2 clash and played on both Josh Bruce (35 minutes, 0 goals) and Aaron Naughton (23 minutes, 0 goals). Naughton (fractured cheekbone) had his facial surgery on Tuesday and should be good to go.
TIM English probably sees Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall in his nightmares after the touch-up they gave the young ruckman in Round 2. The Saints won hit-outs to advantage 20-5 that night, which was the most recorded by any club this year. English has since progressed profoundly, but if there’s one venue you don’t want to get exploited out of the centre at, it is the lightning-fast Gabba, and the Saints have got their wish by playing in Brisbane after the AFL flirted with Adelaide Oval. The sight of Jack Steele and Dan Hannebery bursting out of the middle would be devastating for the Dogs, even if 202cm full-forward Max King – who kicked two goals on Ryan Gardner in Round 2 – has tapered off recently.
THE Bulldogs entered last year’s finals series as the AFL’s most lethal team and were bowled over, and bullied, by the eventual runners-up in GWS. This year they enter, again, as the AFL’s most lethal line-up. In the past five weeks they rank No. 1 for ground balls and looseballs, No. 2 for time in forward half and No. 1 for goals. The magic hands of Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Lachie Hunter flick the ball around and they look to play at blistering speed, although that style melted under the Giants’ heat last year. I wonder if St Kilda will channel Olivia Newton-John and get physical?
LAST TIME THEY MET: St Kilda 14.4 (88) defeated Western Bulldogs 7.7 (49) at Marvel Stadium
THE VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 11 points, delivering the emerging Dogs their first finals victory since the 2016 Grand Final, and leaving the Saints without one since their 2010 preliminary final triumph against the Bulldogs
ODDS: St Kilda $2.05, Western Bulldogs $1.77
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
Port Adelaide v Geelong (7.40pm on Thursday, October 1 at Adelaide Oval)
JACK Steven – the four-time best-and-fairest winner from St Kilda – has played just one final in his career, way back in 2011. It is every chance to remain that way, with Steven right on the edge. The Cats play a high-possession game where they take a lot of marks and that requires precise ball use. Does Steven tick that box? Or would the harassing and tackling of Tom Atkins serve as a smarter selection?
JUST quietly, the Cats are only just going. In the past five weeks they rank 15th for conceding scores from inside 50ms, ahead of only Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Essendon. They are dead last for allowing teams to move the ball from one end of the ground to the other with plenty of red lights going off for Chris Scott. The drop started after the Cats smacked Port Adelaide in Round 12.
Port Adelaide’s game plan is as simple as it is effective. Win the clearance, win field position and play the game in the front half. Led by stoppage bulls Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Tom Rockliff and Sam Powell-Pepper, Port is the AFL’s No. 1 clearance team. But Geelong is No. 2, and there is daylight to third – Port (+5.6), Cats (+4.8) and then West Coast (+2.8). Port Adelaide has lost contested ball in each of its three losses this year. Can the Port beasts quell the crash-and-bash of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood?
DOES anybody respect Port Adelaide? It seems a silly question to ask, but coach Ken Hinkley’s team has sat on top of the ladder after every round and yet the minor premier hasn’t opened as favourite in the first week of the finals for the first time in history. In VFL-AFL history only seven clubs have topped the ladder for the entire season, with Port the first since Essendon’s mighty 2000 team. The finals fixture has been kind to these two clubs. The loser will have an extra 48 hours to prepare for the semi-final, possibly against a Collingwood outfit fresh from quarantine and a flight from Perth. Perhaps Port deserves a break.
LAST TIME THEY MET: Geelong 14.7 (91) defeated Port Adelaide 4.7 (31) at the Gabba in Round 12
THE VERDICT: Port Adelaide by three points, putting Geelong on the exact same path it travelled in 2019 – a semi-final against West Coast before a potential preliminary final against Richmond.
ODDS: Port Adelaide $1.90, Geelong $1.90
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
Brisbane Lions v Richmond (7.50pm on Friday, October 2 at the Gabba)
REMEMBER when Mitch Robinson called Tom Lynch a “wanker” while playing video games last month? Remember when Lynch shoved Alex Witherden’s head towards the ground in Round 10? Remember when Dylan Grimes was accused of flopping after a free kick paid to Charlie Cameron was reversed in last year’s qualifying final? Yep, there’s a bit of feeling in this one.
THE last time Richmond lost to Brisbane, Simon Black had 24 disposals and Jonathan Brown kicked a bag. It is 15-0 since and if it’s a sweet 16th for the Tigers then Brisbane will be left facing a second-consecutive straight-sets exit at home. Interestingly, Richmond’s past two wins have come convincingly on the scoreboard, but nowhere else. The Tigers won by 41 points in Round 10 and 47 points in last year’s final, but Champion Data’s expected scores had those games as three-point and 10-point margins. Accuracy is king, and Brisbane has sabotaged itself with returns of 8.17 (65) and 4.17 (41). Does coach Chris Fagan panic and search for a rejig or back his forwards to apply the cream to a cake that seemingly has all the other ingredients?
DAMIEN Hardwick has a problem. Actually, he has three problems. Shai Bolton is certain to return while Dion Prestia will probably play and Tom Lynch will possibly play. So who on earth does Hardwick omit? Jack Ross and …? Will Grand Final hero Marlion Pickett come under pressure? What about Josh Caddy? Workhorse Kamdyn McIntosh? Jason Castagna has played every game – surely it couldn’t be him? Since last year’s finals series the Tigers’ preferred structure has been to play four talls, and so you would think Mabior Chol survives, even if Lynch returns. Boy, there are going to be some unlucky Tigers.
HARRIS Andrews is this year’s “racing the clock” finals story. Will his hamstring recover in time for the qualifying final? The Lions’ medical team has a great record recently and Fagan would feel a lot more confident in Andrews, and not Jack Payne, standing Lynch, even if they aren’t the Harris Andrews FC. Mind you, Andrews had five goals kicked on him in Round 10 – three by Lynch and two by Jack Riewoldt. It was his most expensive night since Tom Hawkins booted seven before Brisbane’s rise. With Noah Balta set for Eric Hipwood, David Astbury for Daniel McStay and Grimes for Cameron there are brilliant battles everywhere. Charlie’s motorbike has been stuck at the mechanic lately, can he find the pedals?
LAST TIME THEY MET: Richmond 12.10 (82) defeated Brisbane Lions 4.17 (41) at Metricon Stadium in Round 10
THE VERDICT: Richmond by 22 points, with the Tigers clearly the No. 1 seed based on most metrics. They are the AFL’s best territory team and move the ball better than anybody else. It is starting to look like 2019 all over again.
ODDS: Brisbane $2.30, Richmond $1.62
Originally published as AFL finals 2020: We analyse the key match-ups, ins and outs for each big match