Showdown 45 - the “return” derby - would have had to wait until next season had the AFL adopted its “17-5” fixture proposal

Some AFL proposals to rework the fixture - including the 17-5 model - run the risk of denying SA football fans at least two Showdowns each season.

LADBROKES opened Showdown 45 betting with Port Adelaide as the $1.80 favourite and with considerable respect for the Crows at $2.05.

It was not so tight in the betting market for the more-anticipated Showdown 44 on May 12 - Adelaide at $1.53 as the favourite to win six consecutive derbies with the Power at $2.55. And the upset result paid up on Steven Motlop’s most-important goal as a Port Adelaide player with 21 seconds to play in his first derby.

The current Showdown market suggests - true to the derby’s well-established reputation - that Saturday’s Crows-Power clash is a highly anticipated and meaningful AFL contest. And if those who want to change the AFL fixture (on the grounds of much-wanted fairness, evenness and integrity) had their way, Showdown 45 would have to wait for next season not Saturday evening at Adelaide Oval.

One of the fixture proposals challenges the guarantee of at least two Showdowns each AFL season. The 17-plus-five model that splits the competition into three six-team divisions - 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18 - would have put off Showdown 45 until next winter.

Fourth-ranked Port Adelaide (12-6) and 12th-placed Adelaide (9-9) would be in different divisions playing out the home-and-away season without a second Showdown.

Yet the big gap - eight positions in an 18-team league - is most misleading.

Nothing changes with Adelaide’s 12th ranking, win or lose the derby. The Crows stay 12th either way. But much regaining the new Showdown Shield - to lead the derby counter 23-22 - would change the reaction to a mediocre season of unexpected fall from AFL pacesetter to also-ran.

But Port Adelaide is on edge with its finals objective in this derby.

If Port wins - and Sydney beats Collingwood - the Power rises to third. This is the best-case scenario for Ken Hinkley’s crew from Showdown 45.

But if the Power loses the derby, Port Adelaide would in the worst-case scenario fall to ninth (just as Sydney did at the weekend when it tumbled for fourth to ninth). This requires Geelong to beat AFL premier Richmond; Sydney to beat Collingwood; Hawthorn to dent Essendon’s momentum; and Melbourne to avoid a major upset from Gold Coast.

This would have Melbourne, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and Port Adelaide all on 12 wins - and percentage deciding rankings from fourth to ninth.

The 17-plus-5 model - advocated by some powerful influences in the game such as AFL Players Association president and Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield - does not look so attractive when it denies SA fans a second Showdown this week to put on an Adelaide (12th)-Essendon (11th) game at Adelaide Oval.

Critical to the SA-based clubs’ season ticket sales is the guarantee of entry to one Showdown for each supporter base each season. The commercial benefit of this is most significant - as is the need for season ticketholders to renew each summer.

Two derbies in each home-and-away season also enhances the meritorious work the intown rivals put into promote their Showdown charity, Variety.

The reasons for reducing the fixture to potentially just one Showdown a season are not stacking up.

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