Sam Landsberger predicts the first 20 picks at the AFL draft
DRAFT expert Sam Landsberger has revealed his top 20 selections with Fremantle and Carlton’s early picks the key dominos to fall. Which young stars would you pick?
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IT’S almost here, the 2017 AFL Draft.
Herald Sun footy expert Sam Landsberger has had his finger on the pulse and now reveals his phantom draft of the top 20 picks.
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YOUNG GUNS: GARY BUCKENARA’S TOP 50 PROSPECTS
LIONS’ MAN: RAYNER RESPONDS TO NO.1 PICK HYPE
FATHER-SON: TIGER SIGNS ARE POSITIVE FOR NAISH
While Cameron Rayner to Brisbane with the No.1 pick is no surprise, there are some shocks in store when the AFL’s annual talent show.
Join us from 3pm on Friday afternoon as we bring you live coverage of every pick on draft night as well as expert analysis from around the country.
1. BRISBANE LIONS: CAMERON RAYNER (Western Jets)
187cm half-forward
Explosive half-forward in the mould of Christian Petracca and Dustin Martin will dazzle Gabba crowds. Can swing a match in minutes but must work on his poor endurance.
THE TWIST: There is none. The Lions settled on Rayner ahead of Andrew Brayshaw in a photo-finish in a list meeting on Wednesday.
2. FREMANTLE: ADAM CERRA (Eastern Ranges)
186cm midfielder
Major shock. Cerra gives the Dockers’ engine room some oomph as a poised, tough and classy right-footer. Would’ve been talked about as a No.1 if not for injuries the past two years.
THE TWIST: ‘LDU’ has long been linked to the Dockers and could still be their man. Holding picks two and five makes it a poker game for list boss Brad Lloyd, similar to Hawthorn in 2004 when it landed Roughead and Franklin.
3. CARLTON: PADDY DOW (Bendigo Pioneers)
184cm midfielder
Acceleration from stoppages will complement bull Patrick Cripps. Dow a contested midfielder who can get in and out of traffic. Blues desperately need goalkicking midfielders like this Swan Hill kid.
THE TWIST: The Blues have spent all week sleuthing to uncover Fremantle’s plans. SOS really likes Adam Cerra, while ‘LDU’ would be tempting if available.
4. NORTH MELBOURNE: LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE (Dandenong Stingrays)
187cm midfielder
Powerful midfielder runs out of the centre like Chris Judd and a tough opponent forward. If ‘LDU’ stays strong mentally some say he’s this group’s most likely Brownlow Medallist.
THE TWIST: The coach is understood to be a fan of powerful forward Darcy Fogarty. Could he become North’s Matthew Pavlich? Tough call, but surely if ‘LDU’ slips he becomes too irresistible.
5. FREMANTLE: ANDREW BRAYSHAW (Sandringham Dragons)
183cm midfielder
The future captain has family in Western Australia and is the complete midfield package. A safe bet for 200 games. Slows down when kicking for goal like Gary Ablett Jnr.
THE TWIST: Is the Dockers’ plan to get Cerra and ‘LDU’ by taking Cerra at No.2 and hoping North still opts for Fogarty? However the cards fall, Freo draft winners by snaring two of the midfield cream.
6. COLLINGWOOD: DARCY FOGARTY (Glenelg)
192cm key forward
Big, powerful man with a beautiful kick should land at either the Kangas or Magpies. Mega talent was touted as No.1 at the start of the year before injuries hit. Collingwood needs goalkicking targets.
THE TWIST: If the Kangas plump for Fogarty, one of the premium midfielders will slip to Collingwood. That would almost certainly be the mature Brayshaw, who coach Nathan Buckley and captain Scott Pendlebury would equally love.
7. ST KILDA: HUNTER CLARK (Dandenong Stingrays)
186cm halfback/midfielder
Evolved from an offensive half-back into an inside midfielder this year and looks a safe bet as the Saints hunt midfielders. Great kick on both feet and won the Stingrays best-and-fairest from just 12 games.
THE TWIST: The Saints love Jaidyn Stephenson but are likely to pass because of his heart complications, despite doing a power of medical and legal research.
8. ST KILDA: NICK COFFIELD (Northern Knights)
190cm utility
Looks best suited to half-back, where Coffield boasts acceleration and can play tall or small. Another blue-chip early pick after injury troubles have hit 2014 premium selections Paddy McCartin and Hugh Goddard.
THE TWIST: The Saints need a key defender and have done homework on Aaron Naughton. But the coach wants midfielders here and there should be a tall backman available later on.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS: AARON NAUGHTON (Peel Thunder)
194cm key defender
The intercept star in the draft played seven senior WAFL games this year and used to live in Victoria. A top-10 pick on a key defender spreads the talent after taking midfielders Bontempelli and Macrae and trading in key forwards Tom Boyd and Josh Schache.
THE TWIST: Collingwood and St Kilda have both shown interest in Naughton. Dogs coach Luke Beveridge has also met with Jack Higgins at least twice. Will also consider Lachlan Fogarty and Lochie O’Brien.
10. CARLTON: ED RICHARDS (Oakleigh Chargers)
184cm halfback
The grandson of Collingwood great Ron Richards a bit of a bolter. Red-headed defender didn’t play for Vic Metro but clubs like his attacking instincts and speed.
THE TWIST: It’s a waiting game for SOS, who is left at No.10? They want Hunter Clark or Nick Coffield to fall and could reach for Lochie O’Brien. Unlikely to go tall after recent influx.
11. GWS GIANTS: JACK HIGGINS (Oakleigh Chargers)
178cm small forward
Average of 145 SuperCoach points in 33 junior games is a new Champion Data record. Mix of Dayne Zorko and Toby Greene. Dedicated kid with a passionate father, an instant Devon Smith replacement.
THE TWIST: The Giants have long been linked with Higgins. But would they take him ahead of Aiden Bonar or Ed Richards?
12. ADELAIDE: AIDEN BONAR (Dandenong Stingrays)
190cm Utility
Powerful and dynamic player fresh from two knee reconstructions. But Crows took Jake Lever after an ACL and Bonar could become another spring-heeled weapon in this penetrating side.
THE TWIST: Coach Don Pyke liked Bonar when they met but the Crows would love Hunter Clark to skip to No.12. They would take South Australian Darcy Fogarty but have conceded he won’t make it this far.
13. WEST COAST: JAIDYN STEPHENSON (Eastern Ranges)
189cm midfield/forward
Freakish line-breaking talent is a top-five talent being ruled out on medical grounds. Are the Eagles as worried as others about Stephenson’s heart condition? It appears maybe not.
THE TWIST: Stephenson will be the steal of the draft if the Eagles docs have got it right. Will target mature-age midfielders in second round and consider local boy Oscar Allen here if Stephenson is already a Saint.
14. SYDNEY: LACHLAN FOGARTY (Western Jets)
179cm small forward
Averaged 9.7 tackles and strong pressure numbers in a season fitting Richmond’s premiership mould. The highest-ranked TAC Cup player, averaging 145 SuperCoach points and will become an inside midfielder.
THE TWIST: Coach John Longmire interviewed Fogarty and Jack Higgins at their homes on Tuesday as they target a small forward. Are they considering Jaidyn Stephenson too?
15. BRISBANE LIONS: OSCAR ALLEN (Western Australia)
191cm key forward
Likely to start as a third tall and won the Larke Medal as the best player at the under-18 national championships. Allen a good speaker and has the endurance to lead up to a wing, Jack Gunston-style.
THE TWIST: Certain to be Lachlan Fogarty if he is available. A close mate of Rayner’s, the Lions would love to draft both and hope the friendship factor helps the boys settle into Brisbane life together.
16. WESTERN BULLDOGS: NATHAN MURPHY (Sandringham Dragons)
188cm halfback
Hybrid utility would be a handy addition after Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd retired. Former cricket all-rounder with raw athleticism just a natural sporting talent.
THE TWIST: The Dogs got this pick after trading Jake Stringer – but what’s left? Draft already starting to thin out. Outside wingman Lochie O’Brien could be talked about here.
17. RICHMOND: JARROD BRANDER (Bendigo Pioneers)
194cm swingman
The Tigers started the year looking at Josh Schache and should instead get Brander, who began the year a No.1 prospect and is still heavily rated at Punt Rd. Richmond targeting talls and Brander the ideal result.
THE TWIST: Have the Tigers’ medical team cleared Jaidyn Stephenson? If so he would be irresistible, although they probably still take Brander.
18. BRISBANE LIONS: LOCHIE O’BRIEN (Bendigo Pioneers)
184cm wingman
Endurance machine from a cross-country and athletics background is an Andrew Gaff-type wingman who wins most of his ball on the outside. Knee injuries restricted form but O’Brien enjoyed a super 2016.
THE TWIST: Tricky to predict this late but the Lions will also look at Zac Bailey and are likely to grab Jarrod Brander if Richmond doesn’t the selection earlier.
19. GOLD COAST SUNS: WILL POWELL (Claremont)
185cm midfielder
This would be a huge shock given most rate the lightly-framed outside midfielder a very late pick. But some suggestions Powell could fall in this range.
THE TWIST: Tricky draft for Scott Clayton, and probably his last at the Suns, entering at No.19 after trading pick two for Lachie Weller.
20. RICHMOND: CHARLIE BALLARD (Sturt)
195cm midfielder
Late developer who has grown 20m in the past year and played as a rangy wingman. Bolter who has come from nowhere as 195cm midfielders are hard to find.
THE TWIST: Has a bid come for Patrick Naish? Landing a second top-20 talent before securing their classy father-son would be a splendid result for the premiers.
BURNING QUESTIONS
IS THIS A DEEP DRAFT?
No. In fact, the depth is closer to a puddle than an ocean with the high-end talent falling away very early. There are only a handful of premium midfielders available and most of the star prospects come with a question mark. Recruiters suggested there were only about 43 prospects they would be comfortable drafting. Clubs with multiple early picks; Fremantle (No.2 and 5), Carlton (No.3 and 10) and St Kilda (No.7 and 8) will still cash in.
WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR?
Yes. There are probably five or six 2018 prospects who would go No.1 this year if they were eligible. Champion Data’s numbers show next year’s crop is on track to be the next super draft and recruiters agree. It is stacked with dominant key-position stars with clubs like Essendon and Hawthorn happy to trade out of 2017 and return to the business end in 2018. Famous father-sons Rhylee West and Mason Fletcher should join Western Bulldogs and Essendon respectively and are similar types to their fathers, Scott and Dustin
WHAT ARE THE FAMILIAR NAMES?
Patrick Naish will join Richmond as a father-son and Tyler Brown should join brother Callum at Collingwood, where dad Gavin played. Tom McCartin is most likely to join Geelong or Sydney three years after older brother Paddy was chosen at No.1 by St Kilda. Cassidy Parish is a chance to land at Essendon alongside brother Darcy, but he is more likely to be taken as a rookie. Jackson Edwards, the son of former great Tyson, is likely to join Adelaide as a rookie on Monday.
Originally published as Sam Landsberger predicts the first 20 picks at the AFL draft
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