Run home: The final five games for every club, final AFL ladder prediction
There is five weeks remaining in the season and the race for the final four spots in the eight has never been tighter. Who will come out on top?
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The field is only just beginning to narrow as a couple of challengers ruled themselves out of the race for finals this weekend.
The seesawing fight for the final spots in the eight continued in round 19 and the grandstand finish will only get more exciting in the next five weeks.
All eyes are on those final two spots for the finals and here is a breakdown of how every game will shake out in the next five weeks and where that will leave each team.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 16, Lost: 2, Points: 64, Percentage: 136.5
Jamie Elliott’s set shot inevitably splitting the middle to sink Port Adelaide likely sealed Collingwood’s ninth minor premiership and first since 2011. It’s hard to see the Magpies dropping the two games needed to cough up top spot to the Power. Should they get there, 21 wins will be the Magpies most in one single home-and-away season and only in 1929 has Collingwood lost less than two matches before finals.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 14, Lost: 4, Points: 56, Percentage: 113.7
The gauntlet run continues for the Power after Saturday night’s heartbreaking loss to the Magpies, with a Showdown looming this week and a trip to Geelong following that. Top spot is likely gone and the challenge next is to shore up a home qualifying final and Brisbane’s outstanding percentage puts that in jeopardy. A Showdown slip could be costly.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 13, Lost: 5, Points: 52, Percentage: 130
The Lions are still right in the hunt to land a Gabba qualifying final. Brisbane will have to win at least four of the last five to get past Port Adelaide. By beating Geelong, Brisbane is all but locked in to the double chance and round 23’s game against Collingwood sticks out as the toughest assignment on the run home. Only twice – 2001 and 2002 – in club history have the Lions won 17 games in a home-and-away season.
4. MELBOURNE
Won: 12, Lost: 6, Points: 48, Percentage: 123.7
Would Melbourne rather finish third and travel to face Port Adelaide to open the finals or fourth and play at home against Collingwood? It’s a genuine question and if the Demons hold their form, they would be caught with the Lions on percentage for third. The Dees have quietly won three on the trot to enter the push to September.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 10, Lost: 8, Points: 40, Percentage: 106.4
The Dogs took a big step towards September with Friday’s thumping of Essendon. Assuming they take care of games against Hawthorn and West Coast, Luke Beveridge’s team just needs one more victory to guarantee a top-eight spot. A tough fortnight is ahead with rivals GWS and a hot Richmond but with both games at Marvel, the Dogs should find that one extra win they need. Otherwise it will all be on the line with a trip down to Geelong in round 24.
6. ST KILDA
Won: 10, Lost: 8, Points: 40, Percentage: 104.7
Somehow the Saints remain in sixth, after trailing the Roos for much of Sunday. St Kilda should win again next week against Hawthorn and from there will need two more to make finals. It’s hard to see the Saints starting favourite in any of the final four games but they have proven remarkably difficult to dislodge from the eight.
7. GWS GIANTS
Won: 10, Lost: 8, Points: 40, Percentage: 102.2
The Giants and the Dogs have had some huge clashes over the years and Saturday in Ballarat is another monster game. Thanks to a poor percentage, GWS needs to get to 13 wins to play finals and a win on Saturday makes that far more likely. Aside from a trip to Port Adelaide in round 22, all five remaining games are very winnable. Having now won five in a row, why can’t the Giants make it six?
8. GEELONG
Won: 9, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1 Points: 38, Percentage: 121
The slim top-four hopes all-but died thanks to a pitiful midfield effort at the Gabba on Saturday. The next question is the top eight. In truth, a win over Brisbane would have been a bonus and now Geelong needs to win three of its final five to secure a finals spot. A tough test awaits in round 21 against Port Adelaide. A win there just about locks the Cats in but it’s a difficult final month just to qualify.
9. CARLTON
Won: 9, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 116.1
One month ago, Carlton was 15th on the ladder and Blues fans began booking September holidays. By Saturday, Carlton was in the eight. After a relatively simple month – the Blues became the first team since Geelong in 2008 to win five games on the trot by more than 50 points, picking up some extremely valuable percentage – the screws tighten now. Friday night is a monster game against old rival Collingwood and a loss there will mean Carlton will need to win three of its last four to make it with round 21’s clash against St Kilda a pivot point. Maybe hold fire for now on September holidays, Blues fans.
10. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 99.9
Liam Baker’s left-foot bender put Richmond past Hawthorn and into the eight for 24 hours over the weekend. At three-quarter time, Richmond’s finals chances were almost kaput but the stirring comeback gives Andrew McQualter’s men a serious sniff. A poor percentage means the Tigers must win more than the Blues to get past them, so will likely need to win four of the last five, which is a tough task.
11. ESSENDON
Won: 9, Lost: 9, Points: 36, Percentage: 98.4
If the Bombers make it a woeful three weeks on the trot and fall to Sydney on Saturday night, the top eight charge could be cactus. But the fixture opens up in the next three games for the Dons, and four wins gets them there. All signs point to Essendon being this year’s Carlton – facing a do or die final-round MCG blockbuster against Collingwood.
12. SYDNEY
Won: 8, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 111.8
Sydney is now just one game back from the eight but would have to run the table from here to squeeze into September. It’s a tough run home but not insurmountable after topping Fremantle on Saturday night. Win over Essendon and the dream lives.
13. ADELAIDE
Won: 8, Lost: 10, Points: 32, Percentage: 113.5
So close. The Crows were one kick off being right in the thick of the race to the finals. Despite a strong percentage, the Crows are going to end up short, needing to win every game from here to reach 13 wins. Win the Showdown this week and the door is still open, as the Crows should win every other game bar an away clash in Brisbane. Melbourne’s late surge to win on Sunday appears to be a hammer blow for Adelaide’s season.
14. GOLD COAST
Won: 8, Lost: 10, Points: 32, Percentage: 92.3
The Suns have dropped out of the running for the eight now, with only a perfect five-from-five able to get them in the picture. The remaining question is whether they can equal or better 2020 and 2014 (10 wins) for the best season in club history. Away games against Adelaide and Sydney may be Gold Coast’s best chance.
15. FREMANTLE
Won: 7, Lost: 11, Points: 28, Percentage: 88.1
Perhaps the most perplexing part of a problematic season for the Dockers has been their performances at home, having gone 4-5, with only a one-point loss to North Melbourne in round 2 really that close. Thankfully, cross-town rivals West Coast are battling even more, with one of the flattest derbies in memory to come in round 22. A bottom-four finish beckons.
16. HAWTHORN
Won: 5, Lost: 13, Points: 20, Percentage: 78.5
Outside of 2020s shortened season, Hawthorn hasn’t won five games or less in a season since 2005. At three-quarter time on Saturday, the Hawks had a sixth win sewn up before Richmond hit back. This weekend presents a winnable game against the Saints and a final round game against Fremantle is a 50-50 clash. By now, 16th spot is virtually locked in for Sam Mitchell’s team, the club’s lowest-ever finish.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 16, Points: 8, Percentage: 66.6
Can Brett Ratten get a win in his last game? It’s not exactly a Race for Reid this weekend, with West Coast’s percentage hurting any chance of overtaking North Melbourne but bottom spot is still up for grabs, if that’s the right phrasing. A final round game against Gold Coast presents another winnable chance, with Alastair Clarkson to return to the box against Melbourne in round 21. Just four teams have ever lost 21 games in a single VFL/AFL season.
18. WEST COAST
Won: 1, Lost: 17, Points: 4, Percentage: 48.9
West Coast has gotten so twisted, a 71-point loss to Carlton last week was actually not a bad result. A home game on Sunday appears the last chance for the Eagles to find their second win of the year, unless West Coast lifts for a derby in round 22. Even a win over the Roos wouldn’t stave off the wooden spoon, given West Coast's pathetic percentage.
Originally published as Run home: The final five games for every club, final AFL ladder prediction
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