Run Home: Every club’s last six games, predicting where your team will finish
All eyes were on September for Bombers fans before they headed down the highway to Geelong, now anything is possible, so can they do enough to make finals? Our predicted ladder tells all.
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We are in for a grandstand finish.
There are still plenty of spots up for grabs in the eight with fifth placed Geelong just two wins ahead of the fourteenth placed Sydney with just six games to go.
Here is your team’s run home – and where we think they will finish.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 17, Won: 15, Lost: 2, Points: 60, Percentage: 139
The Pies have been the dominant side of the competition, but this will be tested when they travel to South Australia to take on Port Adelaide in a blockbuster clash on Saturday night. The Magpies are putting together one of the most impressive seasons in recent years with their swashbuckling style of play and looked to be primed for September.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 17, Won: 14, Lost: 3, Points: 56, Percentage: 114.7
The Power’s 13-game winning run came to an end after it was humbled by Carlton on Saturday night. Now comes a huge run of games for Ken Hinkley’s side with Collingwood at Adelaide Oval followed by the Showdown and then a trip to Geelong where the Power haven’t won since 2007. Despite that, Port Adelaide have a decent finish to the year and should wrap up a top-two spot.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 17, Won: 12, Lost: 5, Points: 48, Percentage: 130.4
The Lions still have some tough games to come but their Gabba fortress should get them enough wins for a top-three or top-four spot. But are there any demons from their loss against Melbourne in which they threw away the four points from a winning position? Round 23 against Collingwood could be an opportunity to show there are no lingering effects.
4. MELBOURNE
Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Points: 44, Percentage: 125.1
The Demons pulled a rabbit out of the hat against the Lions as they somehow came away with an improbable win at the MCG. This sets up a kind run home that could have Simon Goodwin’s side snaring third-spot on the ladder if things go their way.
5. GEELONG
Played: 17, Won: 9, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 122.9
The reigning premiers sent a statement to the rest of the competition with a huge 77-point win over Essendon on Saturday night. The Cats have had a challenging flag defence but look like they are about to peak at the right time and could be a team that does some serious damage in September. It is a tough run home, but they do have three games at home and one of their away matches is against the struggling Saints at Marvel.
6. ST KILDA
Played: 17, Won: 9, Lost: 8, Points: 36, Percentage: 104.3
Saints coach Ross Lyon was brutally honest after his side went down to Gold Coast on Saturday, saying they would struggle to challenge the 17th placed North Melbourne in their next game. He also declared that they don’t deserve and won’t play finals if they continue to dish up what they did against the Suns. Well the bad news for Saints fans is that Lyon might be right, with St Kilda in real trouble of falling out of the eight now. Yes they should win their next two matches but need to beat one of Carlton, Geelong and Brisbane to secure a finals spot.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 17, Won: 9, Lost: 8, Points: 36, Percentage: 103.5
The Bulldogs can probably kiss goodbye to any hopes of a top-four finish after a loss to Sydney that has Luke Beveridge’s side at risk of a wasted season. Since round 10, the Dogs have gone 2-5, with wins only against North Melbourne and Fremantle. Whether they can hold on to a top-eight spot could go right down to the wire if they don’t get the job done against either Richmond or Hawthorn, the latter in Launceston where the Hawks play oh so well.
8. ESSENDON
Played: 17, Won: 9, Lost: 8, Points: 36, Percentage: 101.2
The Bombers were blown away by a rampant Geelong side, just when Brad Scott’s side was getting some love. This result saw their percentage reduced by nearly a full six per cent, which could be the difference between them getting a home final. Bulldogs this week looms as a must win game for Scott’s side who need to quickly show the Cats loss won’t derail their finals bid.
9. GWS GIANTS
Played: 17, Won: 9, Lost: 8, Points: 36, Percentage: 99.4
Oh there’s a big, big sound coming out of the west of the town and it’s all about the Giants finals credentials. After their fine win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval, Adam Kingsley’s side is right in the mix for a top-eight spot – something few would have seen coming at the start of the season. But can the Giants keep this going? They have a tough run home with trips to Ballarat and the Adelaide Oval, while Carlton at Marvel Stadium could be a game in which the winner plays finals.
10. CARLTON
Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage; 111.4
The lids are off at Lygon Street. After their big win over the Power, the Blues are right on the cusp of the top eight. And with West Coast next week Carlton’s win streak should go to five. There are some tough games to come up with Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG but the Blues could sneak into the eight. Imagine if their final game against GWS at Marvel Stadium was a match in which the winner plays finals!
11. RICHMOND
Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 99.8
As expected the Tigers got the job done against West Coast to keep themselves in the mix for finals. But they will need to beat at least two of Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide to be a chance of making the top eight. It is doable for the Tigers, but it doesn’t look all that likely right now.
12. ADELAIDE
Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 9, Points: 32, Percentage: 114.8
The alarm bells will be ringing at West Lakes. While they haven’t been able to get it done on the road, the Crows have been able to win at Adelaide Oval. But going down to the Giants on their home deck on Saturday night has Matthew Nicks’ sides finals chances teetering on the edge. To secure a spot in the top eight they will likely have to win two of Melbourne at the MCG, Port in the Showdown and Brisbane at the Gabba.
13. GOLD COAST
Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 9, Points: 32, Percentage: 94.6
The Suns got the new coach bounce as they defeated the Saints at home in the first game since Stuart Dew’s sacking. But there’s a good chance that is the only win under Steven King for a while, if they actually get one with the most winnable game against North Melbourne in Hobart. However the Suns do have the chance to be a player in the finals race with games against teams right around them.
14. SYDNEY
Played: 17, Won: 7, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 110.3
The Swans kept their faint finals hopes alive with their win over the Bulldogs but it is going to be a tough task for them to get into the eight. After making the grand final it has been a disappointing year for Sydney, with injuries to key players compounding some poor form on the field. They might do well to win two more games this year.
15. FREMANTLE
Played: 17, Won: 7, Lost: 10, Points: 28, Percentage: 89.3
What a disappointment the Dockers have been this season. They have now lost three matches in a row and are all but done when it comes to the finals race. Fremantle have been a hard watch and this could continue with some tough games still in store. It is now about next year for the Dockers as they look to get back to the side that finished fifth last year.
16. HAWTHORN
Played 17, Won: 5, Lost: 12, Points: 20, Percentage: 77.3
The Hawks got the job done against North Melbourne to get their fifth win of the season. Sam Mitchell’s side could be a chance against St Kilda at Marvel and should defeat Fremantle at the MCG. Whether they continue their strong form in Launceston could be huge for the Bulldogs’ chances of playing finals.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 17, Won: 2, Lost: 15, Points: 8, Percentage: 65.8
The wait for the Roos’ third win of the season continues after they went down to Hawthorn. This could continue even against the cellar-dwelling West Coast in round 20, with the Eagles showing they can play well at home. Maybe Alastair Clarkson’s return can inspire a win but outside of the Eagles in Perth and the Suns in Hobart it could be a long end to the season for the Roos.
18. WEST COAST
Played 17: Won: 1, Lost: 16, Points: 4, Percentage
The Eagles were competitive against Richmond but their losing streak continued. Even if they draw level with North Melbourne they will still win the wooden spoon given their woeful percentage. The Kangaroos at Optus Stadium in round 20 is the one the Eagles will be looking to win to avoid becoming the first side in history to lose 22 games in a season.
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