Pre-season forecasts on Port Adelaide and Adelaide Crows are being tested after longest wait for opening Showdown
SHOWDOWN 44 will reshape views on where Port Adelaide and the Adelaide Crows stand in the race to September’s AFL top-eight finals
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
PORT Adelaide by 15 points: Former Power captain Dom Cassisi is backing the underdog in Showdown 44 - and an end to Port Adelaide’s three-year, five-derby losing streak to Adelaide.
“It’s not every day the coach calls your work ‘soft’,” said Cassisi of Power Ken Hinkley’s review of the 42-point loss to West Coast in Perth on Saturday. “And if the players do not respond, they might as well take the rest of the year off.”
Some might suggest a sixth consecutive Showdown loss – to put Port Adelaide at 4-4 and still out of the top eight after being the AFL’s only unbeaten team five weeks ago – would put the Power’s season on an edge.
Port Adelaide at 4-4 and Adelaide consolidating its top-four position with a 6-2 would put a massive dent in the pre-season optimism for the Power and Crows both commanding top-four rankings for the first time since 2002.
Showdown 44 – the ninth at Adelaide Oval – is played after the longest wait for the opening derby in an AFL premiership season. This offers a significant sample of seven games from which to measure how the Power and Crows are tracking on the bigger picture of delivering an AFL premiership to SA for the first time since 2004.
ADELAIDE: On the scoreboard, the Crows are scoring less - the average has fallen by 10 points. But this is not a red flag considering the Crows smashed the 100-point barrier in each of their first six games last season - and the injuries Adelaide has endured to key midfielders who set up attacking plays and pivotal forwards who finish them.
Most encouraging for coach Don Pyke is how the Crows defence has improved - even without injured half-back Brodie Smith (knee) and intercept defender Jake Lever (Melbourne) - to concede a 78-point average this season compared with 80 in last year’s grand final run.
The statistical review of Adelaide’s first seven games - compared with the benchmarks set last season - underline just how solid the Crows have been while dealing with constant change prompted by a high count of soft-tissue injuries.
At 5-2 (compared with 6-1 last season), Adelaide is perfectly placed to find more growth in its game - and benefits from the notes Pyke has gathered in the past seven weeks.
PORT ADELAIDE. It has been so much about the loss of All-Australian ruckman Patrick Ryder for five weeks with a left Achilles strain. But after seven games, Port Adelaide’s clearance numbers are improved on last season.
The big issue is away from set-piece stoppages. The Power has lost its appetite for contested ball ... to show a trend for “softer” football that has delivered less on the scoreboard.
If Cassisi’s prediction is to hold, Port Adelaide will need to be tough ... “Crows tough”, so to speak.
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au
PORT ADELAIDE POWER IN 2018
SNAPSHOT
PORT Adelaide enters Showdown 44 marked by the frustration of continuing inconsistency.
Many will put this down to Ken Hinkley having to reshape his line-up while playing five of its seven games so far without All-Australian ruckman Patrick Ryder (Achilles tendinitis). But the erratic performances - that have left the Power not living up to top-four expectations - go well beyond being exposed in ruck without Ryder.
Standing out in Port Adelaide’s seven game this season is the extreme between the best and worst of the Power’s playmakers in the midfield, in particular at the hot contests - as noted with losing 10 of the past 12 quarters on the contested-ball count.
RANKS
11th
DOWN from 7th after seven rounds last season
WIN-LOSS
4-3
4-3 last season
AT HOME
2-1
2-2 last season
AWAY
2-2
2-1 last season
TOP-8 WINS
2 (N Melbourne, Sydney)
SCORING
597 points (ranks ninth)
85-point average
DOWN 13 points on last season
SCORING ACCURACY
87.75 (53.7 per cent)
DOWN on 56.47 last season
DEFENDING
584 points (ranks ninth)
83-point average
UP seven points on last season
DISPOSALS
2728 (ranks third)
UP from 11th last season
KICKS-HANDBALL
221-168
218-159 last season
CONTESTED
996 (ranks 11th)
DOWN from No. 3 last season
CONTESTED MARKS
47 (ranks 17th)
DOWN from No. 1 last season
HIT-OUTS
228 (ranks 13th)
DOWN from No. 3 last season
HO TO ADVANTAGE
62 (ranks 14th)
DOWN from No. 2 last season
CLEARANCES
282 (ranks second)
UP from No. 3 last season
DISPOSALS PER GOAL
31.4 (ranks 10th)
UP from 26.5 last season
DOWN from No. 2
NEW PLAYERS
JACK WATTS
HAS played all seven AFL games - and scored 9.6 - while being kept as a permanent feature of the Port Adelaide attack. His disposal average (14.86) is less than chalked up at Melbourne from 2014-17. The most striking figure on Watts’ statistics this season is - just one contested mark.
STEVEN MOTLOP
ALSO has played all seven games since making the free-agency move from Geelong after creating quite an auction in the October trade market. Has kicked 6.3, dished out another four goals - and shown the speed that can make him an invaulable part of the Power midfield and attack.
TOM ROCKLIFF
STRUCK by bad luck in the pre-season with a right-knee strain and more misfortune recently with a calf strain that zapped all speed from his legs. The former Brisbane captain has played four AFL games with the Power - and missed the past three. Best disposal count was 19 against his former Lions team-mates in round three.
ADELAIDE CROWS IN 2018
SNAPSHOT
ADELAIDE enters Showdown 44 having taken heavy hits with an unprecedented soft-tissue injury count that has put key players - in particular midfielders such as vice-captain Rory Sloane - in the medical rooms.
But the Crows have maintained their top-four credentials - with a 5-2 count compared with 6-1 after seven rounds last season - by standing firm to its trademark of contested football and by proving the strength of its development program with new finds such as defender Tom Doedee easing the pain of losing Jake Lever.
Adelaide defensive game - built on the stopping of full back Daniel Talia and the rebound of Rory Laird - is stronger and compensating for the inevitable fall in productivity from a patched-up midfield.
RANKS
Third
DOWN from first after seven rounds last season
WIN-LOSS
5-2
6-1 last season
AT HOME
3-1
4-0 last season
AWAY
2-1
2-1 last season
TOP-8 WINS
2 (Richmond, Sydney)
SCORING
687 (ranks third)
98-point average
DOWN 10 points on last season
SCORING ACCURACY
101.81 (55.5 per cent)
DOWN on 57.6 last season
DEFENDING
549 points (ranks sixth)
78-point average
DOWN two points on last season
DISPOSALS
2819 (ranks second)
UP from fifth last season
KICK-HANDBALL
230-172
218-179 last season
CONTESTED
1087 (ranks second)
DOWN from No. 1 last season
CONTESTED MARKS
83 (ranks fourth)
DOWN from No. 2 last season
HIT-OUTS
286 (ranks seventh)
DOWN from No. 1 last season
HO TO ADVANTAGE
74 (ranks eighth)
DOWN from No. 4 last season
CLEARANCES
254 (ranks 13th)
DOWN from No. 2 last season
DISPOSALS PER GOAL
27.9 (ranks fifth)
DOWN from No. 1 last season
NEW PLAYERS
BRYCE GIBBS
ADELAIDE’s big buy from the October trade market has been the model of consistency - and durability while other Crows midfielders have fallen to soft-tissue injuries. Has played all seven games - and lifted his disposal average (to 27 touches a match) on last year’s figures at Carlton. Has career-best figures at clearances.
TOM DOEDEE
HAD to wait longer than anyone else from the top-20 picks in the 2015 AFL national draft, but that delayed entry to the big league has prepared him superbly to stand up in demanding circumstances in the Adelaide defence. Has played all seven games this season - and ensured the Crows are not left to rue to loss of intercept defender Jake Lever to Melbourne.
JORDAN GALLUCCI
STOPPED in his impressive tracks last season in August when he broke a jaw while playing in the SANFL, the 2016 first-round draftee has made his mark the past three AFL games showing strong touch - and the ability to hit the scoreboard.
Track watch: Smith SuperCoach warning, three key Cats ruled out
Bailey Smith is the second most popular player in SuperCoach, and Geelong’s midfield coach has outlined his role. Plus, three important Cats face delayed starts to the season.
Father-son gun Hamill eager to show his dash for Dolphins
Steve Hamill was a much respected player and leader at Frankston. He wore No. 9 – and 30 years later his son, coming off a six-year stint at Adelaide, will wear the jumper.