Port Adelaide’s run to September’s AFL finals is decided with Showdown and MCG clash against Collingwood
PORT Adelaide’s once sound pathway to September’s top-eight AFL finals is now less certain - and needing ruckman Patrick Ryder to resume soon.
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PORT Adelaide should win two of its remaining five home-and-away games to at least have a 13-win season - and qualify for September’s top-eight finals.
And the difference between staying in the top eight and packing the boots at Alberton could all hinge on the recovery of All-Australian ruckman Patrick Ryder (left hip flexor strain) ... or coach Ken Hinkley’s ability to reconstruct his line-up as the dominoes fall from Ryder’s absence.
So far, Ryder - who is on weekly watch at Alberton - has missed one game with an injury that could keep him on the sidelines for a month.
The most-notable consequence of covering Ryder is already noted in the “rob Peter to pay Paul” shift of key forward Charlie Dixon from the goalsquare to the centre square. The Power cannot endure a scoring drought (just 50 and 58 points in the past fortnight) for much longer.
Port Adelaide has four current finals contenders in its run home. The last of the confirmed also-rans is at Ballarat on Sunday with the clash with the Western Bulldogs - with a win advancing the Power’s win-loss count to 12-8, one victory short of a confirmed finals berth for the second consecutive season.
Showdown 45 now favours 12th-ranked Adelaide regardless of the notion that derbies are a 50-50 contest. If Crows lead ruckman Sam Jacobs - a proven derby winner - is allowed to set the agenda from the stoppages, Port Adelaide will be vulnerable to its sixth loss in seven Showdowns.
West Coast returns to Adelaide Oval in Round 21 - chasing its fifth consecutive win against the Power in the so-called “Portress”. This game will highlight how Port Adelaide’s players cope with their ball-handling skills - and decision making - under pressure, as was highlighted in last year’s two clashes (including an extra-time elimination final) between these teams at Adelaide Oval.
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At this stage, Port Adelaide could be 12-8 - and sitting in eighth spot with an eager Melbourne (ninth) and Adelaide (10th) ready to pounce.
The Power’s second visit to the MCG this season delivers a finals-bound Collingwood - with an assertive ruckman in Brodie Grundy - as the opponent. This is the must-win game if Port Adelaide is to avert a season of promising finishing with regret.
Port Adelaide’s home-and-away closer is at Adelaide Oval against Essendon when the Bombers should be eliminated from the finals race. This could play into the Power’s favour if Essendon coach John Worsfold wants to take advantage of measuring his list before a critical off-season.
Realistically, Port Adelaide is looking at finishing between fourth (with a 14-8 count) and eighth (at 13-9 and a sound percentage) - and the forecast on the Power’s run home hinges heavily on the progress with Ryder’s recovery and Hinkley having his players become fast learners at all the skills sessions at Alberton in the next month.
The most-critical games are Showdown 45 on August 4 and the MCG test with the Magpies on Saturday, August 18.
THE POWER’S RUN HOME
SUNDAY
v W BULLDOGS, Ballarat
LAST TIME: Won by 57 points (132-75) at Adelaide Oval, June 14
PAST FIVE: Won 3, lost 2
PORT Adelaide needed to win this corresponding game at Ballarat last year to be sure of playing finals for the first time since 2014. The Power needs to win this match against an also-ran to give credibility to its hopes of clawing out a top-four finish. Critical questions loom at selection with ruckmen and forwards.
FORECAST: POWER (12-6)
ROUND 20
v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
LAST TIME: Won by five points (95-90) at Adelaide Oval, May 12.
PAST FIVE: Won 1, lost 4.
IF All-Australian ruckman Patrick Ryder (left hip flexor strain) is back, there is a 50-50 contest that the Power could easily tip in Adelaide’s favour with its failing skills under pressure. If Ryder misses, the Crows are favourites. Expected return to Tom Jonas (knee) to the Power defence is critical but not as decisive as the Ryder factor.
FORECAST: CROWS (12-7)
ROUND 21
v WEST COAST, Adelaide Oval
LAST TIME: Lost by 42 points (60-102) at Perth Stadium, May 5.
PAST FIVE: Won 1, lost 4.
WHO is the Eagles’ bunny? Port Adelaide has lost all four clashes with West Coast at Adelaide Oval, including last year’s wasteful elimination final in extra time. Eagles still hold the advantage with their key forwards Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy. Ryder is the key, more so with Nic Naitanui (knee) missing. Power’s patterns to attack cannot play into West Coast defender Jeremy McGovern’s hands.
FORECAST: EAGLES (12-8)
ROUND 22
v COLLINGWOOD, MCG
LAST TIME: Won by 27 points (98-71) at Adelaide Oval, August 13 last year.
PAST FIVE: Won 4, lost 1.
PORT Adelaide has won the past two clashes with Collingwood at the MCG by 31 and 67 points. This is the must-win game to lock the Power to consecutive finals appearances. There is a massive ruck challenge posed by Collingwoood ground-playing ruckman Brodie Grundy, so the need for Ryder to be in action is critical.
FORECAST: POWER (13-8)
ROUND 23
v ESSENDON, Adelaide Oval
LAST TIME: Lost by 22 points (84-106) at Etihad Stadium, April 15
PAST FIVE: Won 2, lost 3.
PORT Adelaide could be on the last roll of the dice for a top-four finish - and looking at an away qualifying final against Richmond or West Coast. Essendon could be in holiday mode. Playing at Adelaide Oval - where it is 1-1 - allows the Power to work against the Bombers’ inconsistent defence.
FORECAST: POWER (14-8)
PROJECTION: Fourth, qualifying final v Richmond at MCG
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au
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