Mick McGuane identifies the key matchups that will decide the Port Adelaide v Geelong clash
Jason Horne-Francis has been a dominant force lately, so which Cats could get the job for the first final of 2024? MICK MCGUANE previews the crunch clash in Adelaide.
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AFL Finals kick off on Thursday night, with Port Adelaide hosting Geelong in a hotly-anticipated clash.
The Power triumphed by only six points last time these two sides met in round 9.
Can Ken Hinkley’s side do that again and become the first side through to a preliminary final, or will the Cats turn the tables?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane puts his coaching hat on for both sides and identifies how he would steer them to victory.
IF I WAS PORT ADELAIDE ….
FOCUS ON OUR STRENGTH
It starts and stops in the midfield for the Power — perhaps more so than any other side.
Port’s onball brigade — headlined by Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis, Ollie Wines and Willem Drew — is incredibly damaging and you have to back that group in to get the job done.
The Power boast the best clearance to score percentage in the competition and are averaging 35.3 points from stoppages — numbers which will hold them in good stead for a brutal final.
MOVE THE FOOTY AT SPEED
Quick and direct ball movement through the corridor will open up scoring opportunities for Port Adelaide.
The Power have a host of dangerous forwards and the quicker they get it into their forward 50, the more unpredictable they become to the Cats’ defenders.
Players like Willie Rioli, Darcy Byrne-Jones and Jason Horne-Francis can get out the back of opposition defences and hit the scoreboard.
Rioli is Port’s second-highest goalkicker this season and I would look to manufacture a forward line which ensures Max Holmes gets the match-up on him.
Holmes is an aggressive running back, but he must ensure that he uses the ball well when he receives it and takes off. If he doesn’t get that decision-making right, Rioli will hurt him if a turnover is created.
If it’s not Holmes, it could be Jed Bews who gets the job.
Rioli has outstanding footy IQ.
He reacts quicker than most when his teammates intercept the ball and he positions himself in attacking areas so that when he is given the ball he can do serious damage from a scoring perspective.
He booted four goals last time these two sides met.
DON’T FRET OVER MISSING PIECES
Dan Houston (suspension) and Kane Farrell (hamstring) won’t play again this year.
But their losses have been overstated in some circles.
As good as Houston has been, Port has plenty of players in that part of the ground to pick up the slack.
Aliir Aliir is back to his best, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher has had an understated year, Miles Bergman has been rock solid since returning to the backline, Lachie Jones can play small or tall, Logan Evans has displayed rapid improvement, Byrne-Jones can feature forward or back and Ryan Burton returned to replace Houston against Fremantle in the final round.
The Power has conceded just 58.7 points a game over the last six rounds — ranked No. 1 in the competition.
They also rank fourth for defending turnover, conceding 38.3 points a game, and sit third for restricting opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside-50.
They’ll be just fine.
DEFEND STOPPAGES STRONGLY
Port Adelaide might be stoppage stars offensively — but their challenge will be how they defend when they lose stoppages.
Geelong is a team which is more than capable of scoring from stoppages, especially when Patrick Dangerfield is in the midfield.
Port players must quickly snap into a defensive mindset and get after their opposition if they lose first possession.
This is particularly important at forward 50 stoppages for the Cats, who have a plethora of players who are capable of manufacturing freakish goals if their opponents go to sleep.
Beware the beast that is Dangerfield in these situations.
He has to be closely watched, because he can create chaos with his aggression and movement at forward-50 stoppages.
COOL THE CATS’ STARS
If Dangerfield starts getting off the chain through the middle, Wines or Willem Drew can be used to try and limit his influence.
As he did in round 9, Jed McEntee should use Tom Stewart as his reference point in a defensive forward role.
Expect Stewart to go to centre bounces — where he can go head-to-head with one of Port Adelaide’s midfielders — before McEntee picks him up in general play.
At times Stewart will fold back into defence, allowing Mitch Duncan or Holmes to assume the midfielder’s role.
When Stewart plays as a backman, McEntee must play him from behind — back shoulder — and allow Stewart to take him to the footy.
When the time presents, he must charge back into Port’s forward 50 as he is already goalside of his opponent.
Bergman gets the important job on Jeremy Cameron given he has the athleticism to push up the ground with him, allowing Aliir to stay deeper on Shannon Neale and Zerk-Thatcher to get Ollie Henry.
IF I WAS GEELONG …
WE NEED YOU, DANGER
It’s pretty simple for the Cats.
If they don’t match Port Adelaide’s strength at stoppage, they’ll have issues.
The Power are a team which will create scoring opportunities through a potent forward line if they can generate territory on the back of stoppage wins.
Therefore, winning, diluting or breaking even at stoppages is key.
Dangerfield — who missed the last match between these sides in round 9 — must be called upon to set the scene for Geelong, particularly at centre bounce.
His competitiveness and power are made for September, but he will need support from teammates like Tanner Bruhn, Tom Atkins, Stewart and Mark Blicavs.
If Port Adelaide wins the stoppage battle convincingly, the Cats could have trouble scoring because the Power were also the third-best team at stifling opposition ball movement across the final six rounds.
BRING MULTIPLE MODES
The Cats like to play slingshot footy from the back half and will want to throw some early punches by playing their way.
The Power run with an aggressive defensive press and Bergman, Burton, Evans and Jones will all look to roll up the ground and cover all exits.
But that structure creates opportunities for Geelong which it has to cash in on.
Tyson Stengle, Brad Close, Gryan Miers, Ollie Dempsey and Jeremy Cameron must all push up the ground and then get behind their opponents on turnover by using their speed and slick ball use.
The Cats rank second in the competition for forward 50 marks, in part because of this ability to get over the back of opposition defences.
However, sometimes they will have to take a different approach and go into a kick-mark game to control the tempo and defend with the footy.
Port Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney are the two best pressure sides left in the premiership race, but you can take away some of that pressure by finding uncontested marks, something that Geelong will need to employ.
USE CAMERON WISELY
Cameron is the most damaging key forward in the competition and will present a huge challenge for Port Adelaide.
The Cats can make the job even harder for their opposition by testing handovers that are certain to occur.
I suspect Bergman goes all the way with Cameron when he gets on his bike up the field, but when the Geelong goalkicker is playing as a deeper forward he might instead be manned by Aliir.
The Cats have to funnel the footy through Cameron whenever he finds himself in space — whether it is during a handover or if his opponent drops off him.
Cameron can break games open with his ball use through the middle of the ground and will kick important goals when forward.
BEWARE OF JHF
Horne-Francis is a next-generation Dustin Martin.
He’s splitting his time between midfield and forward roles and is having a profound impact, averaging eight score involvements and 1.8 goals across his past four games.
Horne-Francis has got the craft, power and strength to win the ball in multiple ways and do some damage on the scoreboard without logging 35 disposals.
When he’s around the ball, Atkins could be deployed to help cool the jets.
Jake Kolodjashnij is the obvious opponent when Horne-Francis is playing close to goal as a forward.
LET TOM DICTATE
Don’t change what’s worked when it comes to Stewart.
Since round 16, the All-Australian defender has spent 85 per cent of his time as a midfielder and the Cats would be silly to reverse that this week.
Geelong looks stronger at centre bounce when Stewart is in there and he can cause some confusion when he floats back into defence.
He either becomes a seventh defender or frees up Holmes or Duncan to push into the midfield.
Start Stewart in the middle and allow him to dictate what he does from there.
MICK’S TIP
Port Adelaide by 14pts
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