Podcast: Champion Data reveals who the winners were in the trade period
St Kilda’s trade successes come with a warning, Geelong is ahead despite losing Tim Kelly and Essendon has again failed to address its No.1 weakness. Champion Data experts rate every club’s trade period.
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St Kilda’s triumphant trade period is set to leave the club with a dearth of teenage talent arriving in the next two national drafts.
A Champion Data analysis of every club’s off-season has underlined that Saints recruits Zak Jones and Dougal Howard could be among the shrewdest additions, but there won’t be much else walking through the Moorabbin doors.
The Saints hold just one top-50 selection in the 2019 and 2020 drafts — their first pick next year — meaning the current crop must drive the club into the finals for the first time since 2011.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE CHAMPION DATA’S TAKE ON EVERY CLUB
Conversely, Geelong – which is already in flag mode – has cleverly stockpiled five picks in the top 25 in the next two drafts.
While the Cats lost Tim Kelly, there is a good chance Jack Steven, Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins and Jordan Clark plus some of those draftees walk into the team that led Richmond by 21 points at halftime of the preliminary final.
Remarkably, Howard, 23, was the No.1 ranked key defender in the AFL at Round 8 this year. While the athletic big man was spared the best forwards – Howard’s opponents included Oscar McInerney, Ben Reid and Nick Larkey – he was also the third-best spoiler in the league.
But in a spontaneous coaching move by Ken Hinkey, Howard was pushed forward in the second half of the Showdown loss to Adelaide and eventually out the door.
Howard booted two last-quarter goals and so Hinkley persisted with the experiment before dropping Howard to the SANFL.
Saints list manager James Gallagher jotted that omission in his notepad and then courted Howard, offering him the full-back a place in Brett Ratten’s team for Round 1 next season.
Champion Data rated Jones the No.4 wingman in the AFL from Round 14 onwards, only behind Brisbane duo Mitch Robinson and Hugh McCluggage and West Coast’s Andrew Gaff.
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Meanwhile, Essendon held on to its aces – Orazio Fantasia and Joe Daniher – but failed to address its No.1 weakness.
From Rounds 15-23 the Bombers lost contested possessions by a whopping 147, which was 59 more than the next worse club.
Captain Dyson Heppell (averaged 12), Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett (11) led the way, but they were well behind league leaders Nat Fyfe (18) and Patrick Cripps (17).
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The Bombers had a nibble at Sam Powell-Pepper although were only a chance to secure the Power bull if Fantasia asked for a trade to Alberton.
Wingman Tom Cutler’s arrival from Brisbane could allow Andy McGrath to be unleashed as an inside midfielder next year.
PODCAST SPECIAL: SAM LANDSBERGER AND CHAMPION DATA’S DANIEL HOYNE ASSESS EVERY CLUB’S TRADE PERIOD. LISTEN BELOW:
While the Eagles paid a high price for Kelly, recent examples of similar acquisitions have correlated with sharp spikes up the ladder.
The Eagles ranked 17th for contested possessions this year, which Kelly should improve.
In 2015 Geelong ranked 13th for contested possessions while in 2018 the Lions ranked 14th.
The Cats and Lions then secured Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Neale respectively, rising to second and third in contested ball and both finishing second on the ladder.
CHAMPION DATA’S TAKE ON YOUR CLUB’S TRADES
ADELAIDE
The Crows were the second-oldest side in 2019 but the age profile has been slashed with the departure of Eddie Betts (32), Sam Jacobs (31), Josh Jenkins (30), Alex Keath (27), Hugh Greenwood (27) and Cam Ellis-Yolmen (26).
BRISBANE LIONS
Boosted their list but missing out on Jamie Elliott hurts. He could have taken reliance off Charlie Cameron.
CARLTON
Eddie Betts averaged one goal per game against finalists this year, but that ballooned to 2.4 goals against bottom 10 teams. Ex-Hawk Mark Pittonet averaged 17 disposals and 114 rankings points a game in the VFL last season.
COLLINGWOOD
Forward line in 2020 could be a land of the giants with recruit Darcy Cameron joining Mason Cox and Brody Mihocek. Cameron played as a forward and ruckman in Sydney’s NEAFL team and averaged 100 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals and kicked eight goals from 11 games.
ESSENDON
From Round 15-23 last year the Bombers were -143 for contested possessions, ranked 18th and almost double the second-worst side. Didn’t attract a contested ball winner but Tom Cutler’s arrival could free Andrew McGrath to move from the wing into the centre square.
FREMANTLE
The Dockers’ biggest issue this year was ball use. Departures Bradley Hill and Ed Langdon both rated in the negative for kick rating.
GEELONG
Compiling four Round 1 draft picks over the next two years is a huge tick. Can add Jack Steven, Josh Jenkins, Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins and potentially high draftees to the team that led Richmond by 21 points at halftime of the preliminary final.
GOLD COAST
Ex-Crow Hugh Greenwood was rated as an elite mid-forward in 2019.
GWS GIANTS
Academy gun Tom Green will be the Giants’ No.1 target on draft night. He averaged 33 disposals in four NAB League games this year and 23.5 disposals in the under-18 championships.
HAWTHORN
Sam Frost’s turnovers stand out but he rates as an average kick for a key defender.
MELBOURNE
Ed Langdon is rated elite for disposals and metres gained in 2019, averaging 27.9 disposals (third in the AFL for wingmen) and 492 metres gained (second for wingmen).
NORTH MELBOURNE
Deal with Melbourne sets up two top-30 draft picks this year and potentially two top-10 picks next year. Big tick.
PORT ADELAIDE
Drafted three quality kids in Connor Rozee, Zavier Duursma and Zak Butters last year and should get two more with picks 12 and 18 this year.
RICHMOND
Didn’t do much but didn’t have to. Josh Caddy played purely as a wingman after returning to the team in Round 20 and rated elite for his position.
ST KILDA
From Round 14 last season Zak Jones was rated the fourth-best-rated wingman at the competition. Dougal Howard was rated the No.1 key defender in the competition until he was moved forward in Round 8 last year.
SYDNEY
Retaining Tom Papley is a big win, he is clearly Sydney’s best forward half ground-ball player.
WEST COAST
Tim Kelly will help fix West Coast’s contested possession issues. In each of their four losses against top-four teams the Eagles loss the contested ball count by at least 20.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Defender Alex Keath ranked No.4 in the AFL for intercept possessions, but isn’t the lockdown defender the club craves. The Dogs conceded 93 goals to opposition key forwards in 2019, which was the second-most behind wooden-spooner Gold Coast.
Originally published as Podcast: Champion Data reveals who the winners were in the trade period