The Run Home: Gilbert Gardiner predicts every club’s finish to the AFL season

IN THE closest season in history, every win — and loss — counts. We take a close look at every contender’s run home and predict where your team will finish.

Can the Bulldogs shake off the premiership hangover and charge to the finals? Picture: Phil Hillyard

FULL steam ahead for September action — who will make it and who will miss out.

Gilbert Gardiner runs the rule over your team’s draw for the next nine rounds to separate the AFL contenders from the AFLX pretenders.

The evenness of the competition has delivered upsets and close games, but importantly, it has gone some way towards eliminating ‘dead-rubbers’ down the stretch.

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AFL number cruncher Champion Data still gives 17 of the 18 teams a ‘chance’ of playing finals.

1. GWS GIANTS 40pts, 120.5%

R15: Geelong (SPO) W

R16: Hawthorn (US) W

R17: Sydney (SPO) W

R18: Richmond (MCG) W

R19: Fremantle (SPO) W

R20: Melbourne (UNSW) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (ES) L

R22: West Coast (SPO) W

R23: Geelong (SS) L

GILBERT SAYS: Scary how good this lot will be if they can get their ‘best 22’ on the field at any one time. No Kelly, Coniglio, Smith, Hopper, Taranto ... we could go on. Richmond used to sweat on Brett Deledio’s fitness, for the Giants the goalkicking midfielder is the cherry on top. The next four weeks could determine the minor premiership and give us an insight into how good this lot can be.

2. ADELAIDE 36pts, 136.8%

R15: Carlton (MCG) W

R16: Western Bulldogs (AO) W

R17: Melbourne (TIO) L

R18: Geelong (AO) L

R19: Collingwood (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R21: Essendon (ES) W

R22: Sydney (AO) W

R23: West Coast (S) L

GILBERT SAYS: Hit a few hurdles through the middle part of the season but Don Pyke should ship them into shape in time for September action. Tricky month ahead and desperately need Rory Sloane to find his mojo again.

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3. GEELONG 36pts, 114%

R15: GWS Giants (SPO) L

R16: Brisbane (G) W

R17: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Carlton (ES) W

R20: Sydney (SS) W

R21: Richmond (SS) W

R22: Collingwood (MCG) W

R23: GWS Giants (SS) W

GILBERT SAYS: The race for the minor premiership starts on Saturday night. Playing the Giants twice in the last nine weeks is not ideal, but to be the best you’ve got to beat the best. Reasonably healthy list allows Chris Scott to consider resting a gun or two down the stretch. Adelaide (R18) and Sydney (R20) are the testing material.

The Cats look set to make top four. Picture: Michael Klein

4. PORT ADELAIDE 32pts, 135.4%

R15: Richmond (AO) W

R16: West Coast (S) L

R17: North Melbourne (AO) W

R18: Melbourne (MCG) L

R19: St Kilda (AO) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Collingwood (AO) W

R22: Western Bulldogs (EU) L

R23: Gold Coast (AO) W

GILBERT SAYS: The smoky. Six of the last nine games at home including the Showdown, which traditionally is a lottery. Tough midfield and dangerous forwards, with Robbie Gray just as good buzzing around Charlie Dixon’s feet as he is creating goals of his own.

5. MELBOURNE 32pts, 114.7%

R15: Sydney (MCG) L

R16: Carlton (MCG) W

R17: Adelaide (TIO) W

R18: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R19: North Melbourne (BA) W

R20: GWS Giants (UNSW) L

R21: St Kilda (MCG) W

R22: Brisbane (MCG) W

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

GILBERT SAYS: Is Friday night a mini Grand Final preview? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility because the Swans — like Melbourne — believe they’re good enough to go deep in September. With finals all but assured, the Dees are a sneaky 37 per cent chance for the top four, according to Champion Data. Need to beat North Melbourne in Hobart and St Kilda at the MCG to stay in the hunt for a double chance.

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6. RICHMOND 32pts, 111.7%

R15: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R16: St Kilda (ES) W

R17: Brisbane (ES) W

R18: GWS Giants (MCG) L

R19: Gold Coast (MS) W

R20: Hawthorn (MCG) L

R21: Geelong (SS) L

R22: Fremantle (S) W

R23: St Kilda (MCG) W

GILBERT SAYS: Can’t help but feel David Mundy’s matchwinner could come back to haunt the Tigers later in the year. Not without a chance (20 per cent) of jumping into the top four but will need to eradicate the ‘Richmondy’ losses. Tough month with games against Port Adelaide (AO), St Kilda (ES) and GWS (MCG), can win all three if all goes to plan.

Trent Cotchin should lead the Tigers into the finals again with a strong finish to the season. Picture: Getty

7. WEST COAST EAGLES 28pts, 102.1%

R15: Western Bulldogs (ES) L

R16: Port Adelaide (S) W

R17: Fremantle (S) W

R18: Collingwood (ES) L

R19: Brisbane (S) W

R20: St Kilda (ES) L

R21: Carlton (S) W

R22: GWS Giants (SPO) L

R23: Adelaide (S) W

GILBERT SAYS: If you’re outside the eight you’re looking at the Eagles and rubbing your hands in glee. A 55 per cent chance to play finals, according to Champion Data after battling through the middle part of the season. Happy to pencil in three of the next five at Subiaco, but Port Adelaide and Adelaide should take a world of beating at the venue. Desperate for Josh Kennedy to play again, and if Nic Nat gets back it’s a bonus.

8. ST KILDA 28pts, 97.9%

R15: Fremantle (S) L

R16: Richmond (ES) L

R17: Essendon (ES) W

R18: Sydney (SCG) L

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R20: West Coast (ES) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: North Melbourne (ES) W

R23: Richmond (MCG) L

GILBERT SAYS: Squeaky bum time? The Saints’ finals hopes sit on a knife’s edge (25 per cent chance) ahead of a host of crunch games. Sydney (SCG) and Port Adelaide (AO) back to back does not help their cause, while Melbourne and Richmond at the MCG pose major headaches. Will need to stun a couple for the Saints to go marching in.

Can the Bulldogs shake off the premiership hangover and charge to the finals? Picture: Phil Hillyard

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS 28pts, 97%

R15: West Coast (ES) W

R16: Adelaide (AO) L

R17: Cartlon (MCG) W

R18: Gold Coast (CS) W

R19: Essendon (ES) W

R20: Brisbane (G) W

R21: GWS Giants (ES) W

R22: Port Adelaide (EU) W

R23: Hawthorn (ES) W

GILBERT SAYS: Drink. Drank. Drunk. Pass the Bloody Mary, please. Premiership hangover or not, the Dogs look set to mount their change. Marcus Bontempelli roared back into form last week and must go on with the job. Bob Murphy, Tom Boyd and possibly Travis Cloke still to come back into the team. Adelaide in Adelaide the only concern, while GWS (ES) will be close whatever happens.

10. SYDNEY SWANS 24pts, 105.2%

R15: Melbourne (MCG) W

R16: Gold Coast (SCG) W

R17: GWS Giants (SPO) L

R18: St Kilda (SCG) W

R19: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R20: Geelong (SS) L

R21: Fremantle (SCG) W

R22: Adelaide (AO) L

R23: Carlton (SCG) W

GILBERT SAYS: No wriggle room after that 0-6 start, but the Swans have won lots of admirers since. Incredible to think the Hawks got them not long ago. Must win on Friday night to keep the dream alive or face the prospect of having to make it up against a GWS (SPO), Geelong (SS) or Adelaide (AO) on the road. If anyone is going to complete a historic finals run it’s the ‘Bloods’.

The Swans might have left their run too late.

11. ESSENDON 24pts, 102.6%

R15: Brisbane (ES) W

R16: Collingwood (MCG) W

R17: St Kilda (ES) L

R18: North Melbourne (ES) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (ES) L

R20: Carlton (MCG) W

R21: Adelaide (ES) L

R22: Gold Coast (MS) W

R23: Fremantle (ES) W

GILBERT SAYS: Geez their best is electric but is it sustainable? Will give a few teams some headaches in the run to the line but a 22 per cent chance of making the eight looks a bridge too far unless a couple of those wins are by big margins. If it does go pear-shaped, this has been a tremendous launching pad for an exciting 2018 campaign.

12. FREMANTLE 24pts, 79.6%

R15: St Kilda (S) W

R16: North Melbourne (ES) L

R17: West Coast (S) L

R18: Hawthorn (S) W

R19: GWS (SPO) L

R20: Gold Coast (S) W

R21: Sydney (SCG) L

R22: Richmond (S) L

R23: Essendon (ES) L

GILBERT SAYS: With Fyfe forward and Sandi questionable, the Dockers are no certainties to beat anyone in the next nine rounds. Ross Lyon can put a very big dint in former club St Kilda’s hopes this weekend. Tough run with six of the nine games against genuine finals aspirants.

13. COLLINGWOOD 20pts, 98.9%

R15: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R16: Essendon (MCG) L

R17: Gold Coast (MS) W

R18: West Coast (ES) W

R19: Adelaide (MCG) L

R20: North Melbourne (ES) W

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R22: Geelong (MCG) L

R23: Melbourne (MCG) L

GILBERT SAYS: Haven’t been able to play consistent football yet, so can’t expect them to turn it around in the next nine weeks. Nathan Buckley has them doing so much right, but forward of centre is a problem without Jamie Elliott. Skipper Scott Pendlebury is bullish about next year, and we tend to agree.

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14. GOLD COAST SUNS 20pts, 86.7%

R15: North Melbourne (MS) W

R16: Sydney (SCG) L

R17: Collingwood (MS) L

R18: Western Bulldogs (CS) L

R19: Richmond (MS) L

R20: Fremantle (S) L

R21: Brisbane (G) W

R22: Essendon (MS) L

R23: Port Adelaide (AO) L

GILBERT SAYS: Should get over the line for Gazza’s 300th, but laughs will be few and far between planning for end-of-season trip and the next nine games.

15. CARLTON 20pts, 81.7%

R15: Adelaide (MCG) L

R16: Melbourne (MCG) L

R17: Western Bulldogs (MCG) L

R18: Brisbane (G) W

R19: Geelong (ES) L

R20: Essendon (MCG) L

R21: West Coast (S) L

R22: Hawthorn (ES) W

R23: Sydney (SCG) L

GILBERT SAYS: So you’re saying there’s a chance? One per cent, actually, to make the eight, according to Champion Data. That, too, could be extinguished this week when Adelaide gets the chocolates. Have been gallant the Blues and lots to like for the seasons ahead with a host of rising stars under Bolton’s watch.

16. HAWTHORN 20pts, 79.4%

R15: Collingwood (MCG) L

R16: GWS Giants (US) L

R17: Geelong (MCG) L

R18: Fremantle (DS) L

R19: Sydney (MCG) L

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (US) L

R22: Carlton (ES) L

R23: Western Bulldogs (ES) L

GILBERT SAYS: They got up last week against the odds, could this be another Debbie Downer Game? It’s all about the future and getting as many games into the kids as possible. We’ve seen the Hawks ‘get up’ for certain games and think Richmond (MCG) and Western Bulldogs (ES) could be those efforts, especially with premiership heroes Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson set to hang up the boots.

This is likely to be the first time since 2009 that Hawthorn hasn’t played finals. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

17. NORTH MELBOURNE 16pts, 93.4%

R15: Gold Coast (MS) L

R16: Fremantle (ES) W

R17: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R18: Essendon (ES) L

R19: Melbourne (BA) L

R20: Collingwood (ES) L

R21: Hawthorn (US) W

R22: St Kilda (ES) L

R23: Brisbane (G) W

GILBERT SAYS: Coulda, shoulda, woulda ... but haven’t. A bit of a tease this season but unearthed a couple of likely types in Jy Simpkin, Declan Mountford and Ed Vickers-Willis. If money talks, the Roos can rise with a bullet in 2018 with Josh Kelly in the royal blue and white stripes.

18. BRISBANE LIONS 8pts, 68.9%

R15: Essendon (ES) L

R16: Geelong (G) L

R17: Richmond (ES) L

R18: Carlton (G) L

R19: West Coast (S) L

R20: Western Bulldogs (G) L

R21: Gold Coast (G) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: North Melbourne (G) L

GILBERT SAYS: Nothing to see here, I’m afraid. The bean counters have spoken and the Lions are the only team in the competition with a zero per cent chance of finals. I’m told the US and Europe is nice in September, though.

GILBERT GARDINER’S PREDICTED LADDER

1. GWS Giants 17-5

2. Geelong 17-5

3. Melbourne 15-7

4. Western Bulldogs 15-7

5. Adelaide 14-8

6. Port Adelaide 14-8

7. Richmond 13-9

8. Sydney 12-10

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9. Essendon 12-10

10. West Coast 12-10

11. St Kilda 10-12

12. Collingwood 9-13

13. Fremantle 9-13

14. North Melbourne 7-15

15. Gold Coast 7-15

16. Carlton 7-15

17. Hawthorn 6-16

18. Brisbane 2-20

WHICH WOULD MEAN: FINALS, WEEK ONE

First qualifying final: GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs, Spotless Stadium

Second qualifying final: Geelong v Melbourne, MCG

First elimination final: Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval

Second elimination final: Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval

	FINALS CHANCES
LADDER	CLUB	TOP 8	TOP 4	TOP 2
1	GWS Giants	100%	93%	74%
2	Adelaide	99%	84%	54%
3	Port Adelaide	96%	67%	29%
4	Geelong	94%	58%	22%
5	Melbourne	87%	37%	10%
6	Richmond	73%	20%	4%
7	Western Bulldogs	70%	18%	3%
8	Sydney	59%	10%	1%
9	West Coast	55%	9%	1%
10	St Kilda	25%	2%	0%
11	Essendon	22%	1%	0%
12	Collingwood	11%	1%	0%
13	Gold Coast	5%	0%	0%
14	Fremantle	3%	0%	0%
15	Hawthorn	2%	0%	0%
16	Carlton	1%	0%	0%
17	North Melbourne	1%	0%	0%
18	Brisbane	0%	0%	0%

Originally published as The Run Home: Gilbert Gardiner predicts every club’s finish to the AFL season