The run home: Every AFL club’s remaining games and finals chances rated
With five rounds to go, Essendon has soared into the top-eight for the first time this season. Can they hold on? See every club’s run home.
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The race to September is on, with only five rounds remaining this season.
Who has your club still got to play — and what do they have to play for?
We take a look at every club’s run home.
1. MELBOURNE
Record: 13-1-3, 127.8%
R19: Western Bulldogs
R20: Gold Coast Suns
R21: West Coast
R22: Adelaide
R23: Geelong
WE SAY
Still atop of the ladder, but things are a little shaky for the Demons who only escaped with a draw against the 17th placed Hawthorn on Saturday night. That made for two wins, two losses and a draw from their past four games. Strangely, Melbourne’s three losses and its draw this season have all come against sides currently outside the top-eight. A mixed final five weeks to come, but expect them to do enough to finish top-two.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $5, Top-4: $1.06, Top-8: N/A
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Record: 13-4, 140.4%
R19: Melbourne
R20: Adelaide
R21: Essendon
R22: Hawthorn
R23: Port Adelaide
WE SAY
Did enough to topple Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium on Saturday but were not too convincing in an 11-point win. Still, Luke Beveridge’s side is the equal premiership favourite with Geelong, as it stands. The Bulldogs have a nice percentage gap on the Cats, which will help their prospects of a top-two finish. The clash with ladder-leader Melbourne shapes as the big challenge after the Bulldogs suffered a 28-point loss when the two teams last met in Round 11.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $4.50, Top-4: $1.05, Top-8: N/A
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3. GEELONG
Record: 13-4, 130.3%
R19: Richmond
R20: North Melbourne
R21: GWS Giants
R22: St Kilda
R23: Melbourne
WE SAY
The Cats are equal premiership favourites with the Western Bulldogs but probably deserve to be outright favourites after another powerful win over Fremantle last Thursday night. A 69-point win provided a nice percentage boost and the Cats did that without two of their main forwards in Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan. They will be favourites for each of their next four games before a blockbuster clash with Melbourne in the final round.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $4.50, Top-4: $1.05, Top-8: N/A
4. PORT ADELAIDE
Record: 12-5, 119.8%
R19: Collingwood
R20: GWS Giants
R21: Adelaide
R22: Carlton
R23: Western Bulldogs
WE SAY
Back in the top-four, for now, after overcoming a slow start to take care of St Kilda by 13 points in Round 18. The top-four spot now looks like being the Power’s to lose. They should win their next four games, which will be enough to hold onto it, even if they can’t knock off the Western Bulldogs in Round 23.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $8, Top-4: $1.70, Top-8: N/A
5. BRISBANE LIONS
Record: 11-6, 124.9%
R19: Gold Coast Suns
R20: Hawthorn
R21: Fremantle
R22: Collingwood
R23: West Coast Eagles
WE SAY
The Lions have now lost their past two matches to St Kilda and Richmond — and it’s been costly. With five rounds to go, they now sit a game out of the top-four and might struggle to get back in. Given Port Adelaide’s draw, the Lions look like potentially needing to win all of their last five games to earn the double-chance. They’re capable, but it won’t be easy.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $6.50, Top-4: $2.25, Top-8: N/A
6. SYDNEY
Record: 11-6, 116.5%
R19: Fremantle
R20: Essendon
R21: St Kilda
R22: North Melbourne
R23: Gold Coast
WE SAY
The Swans were 35 points down against the Giants early in the second quarter on Sunday night but responded well to score a 26-point win, making it three victories on the trot. A favourable run home could see them gain some real momentum heading into finals. As it stands, you’d tip Sydney to win all of their final five games.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $10, Top-4: $3, Top-8: N/A
7. WEST COAST
Record: 9-8, 98%
R19: St Kilda
R20: Collingwood
R21: Melbourne
R22: Fremantle
R23: Brisbane
WE SAY
It’s hard to know what to make of the Eagles, who bounced back from three-straight losses to take care of Adelaide by 42 points at Adelaide Oval on Sunday. They look like needing only three more wins to play finals and are supposed to have three more home games at Optus Stadium. But given their lack of consistency this year and a couple of tough games against Melbourne and Brisbane, who knows if they make it or not.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $34, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $1.50
8. ESSENDON
Record: 8-9, 104.5%
R19: GWS Giants
R20: Sydney Swans
R21: Western Bulldogs
R22: Gold Coast Suns
R23: Collingwood
WE SAY
An 18-point win over North Melbourne on Sunday wasn’t particularly convincing, but it has seen Essendon soar from 11th to 8th on the ladder. It is the first time this season the Bombers have finished a round inside the top-eight, with their finals fate now in their own hands. Given a healthy percentage, four wins should be enough to make the cut. With games against Sydney and the Western Bulldogs to come, that won’t be easy. But Essendon is certainly capable.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $51, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $2.10
9. RICHMOND
Record: 8-9, 100.8%
R19: Geelong
R20: Fremantle
R21: North Melbourne
R22: GWS
R23: Hawthorn
WE SAY
The Tigers briefly returned to the top-eight after an upset 20-point win over Brisbane on Friday night which ended a four-game losing streak. But their stay in the top-eight was short-lived as they were bumped back out by Sunday. Four more wins should be enough for the reigning premiers to play finals once again, but given their injury list, and the loss of superstar Dustin Martin to a kidney injury for the rest of the season, that looks like being an uphill battle.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $15, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $1.90
10. FREMANTLE
Record: 8-9, 92.5%
R19: Sydney Swans
R20: Richmond
R21: Brisbane Lions
R22: West Coast Eagles
R23: St Kilda
WE SAY
The Dockers slipped from seventh on the ladder to 10th on the back of a horror 69-point loss to Geelong and it’s hard to see them having any chance of playing finals football now. Every game for the remainder of the season looks tough, and the hefty loss to the Cats means the Dockers’ percentage took a belting as well, which won’t help.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $101, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $6
11. ST KILDA
Record: 8-9, 86.6%
R19: West Coast
R20: Carlton
R21: Sydney
R22: Geelong
R23: Fremantle
WE SAY
The Saints really needed to topple Port Adelaide in Round 17 to keep themselves in the finals race, but they lost that match by 13 points. Given a lowly percentage, and a few difficult games to come, they can kiss goodbye to featuring in September this year.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $101, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $7
12. GWS GIANTS
Record: 7-1-9, 95.5
R19: Essendon
R20: Port Adelaide
R21: Geelong
R22: Richmond
R23: Carlton
WE SAY
The Giants won’t be playing finals football this year after suffering consecutive losses to Gold Coast and Sydney. Compounding the pain was the loss of star Toby Greene, who has been forced into quarantine. A tough run home also awaits.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $81, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $11
13. CARLTON
Record: 7-10, 93.9%
R19: North Melbourne
R20: St Kilda
R21: Gold Coast Suns
R22: Port Adelaide
R23: GWS Giants
WE SAY
After trailing for much of the game, the Blues found something in the last quarter against Collingwood to return to the winners’ list on Sunday. That made for three wins from Carlton’s past four matches, a positive run after a poor first half of the season. It also keeps the door to finals slightly ajar. Yes, Blues fans, you are a fighting chance. If Carlton wins all of its last five games, it should feature in September. If the Blues beat North Melbourne this weekend, Essendon beats Greater Western Sydney and West Coast defeats St Kilda, Carlton would sit in 10th spot on the ladder just one game and percentage outside the top-eight with four rounds to go. Blues fans can only hope they keep on winning — and keep their fingers crossed that Essendon and Richmond each drop at least two more games in the run home. We’re not saying a finals berth is likely, but for now it’s still a plausible mathematical chance.
TAB ODDS
Premiership: $101, Top-4: N/A, Top-8: $9
14. GOLD COAST
Record: 6-11, 88.7%
R19: Brisbane Lions
R20: Melbourne
R21: Carlton
R22: Essendon
R23: Sydney Swans
WE SAY
Known for dropping away in the second half of the season in recent years, the Suns have done the opposite and found something in recent weeks. They couldn’t beat the second-placed Western Bulldogs on Saturday, but certainly weren’t disgraced in an 11-point loss.
15. COLLINGWOOD
Record: 5-12, 89.8%
R19: Port Adelaide
R20: West Coast Eagles
R21: Hawthorn
R22: Brisbane Lions
R23: Essendon
WE SAY
The Magpies led by as much as 24 points in the second quarter against Carlton on Sunday but fell away badly to go down by 29 points. It doesn’t get any easier for caretaker coach Robert Harvey, with his side facing a difficult run home.
16. ADELAIDE
Record: 5-12, 79.4%
R19: Hawthorn
R20: Western Bulldogs
R21: Port Adelaide
R22: Melbourne
R23: North Melbourne
WE SAY
It has been a pretty ugly past three weeks for the Crows, who have suffered a string of hefty losses to Brisbane (52 points), Essendon (63 points) and West Coast (42 points). After a decent first half of the season all things considered, they have badly dropped away and they still have three top-four opponents to play.
17. HAWTHORN
Record: 4-1-12, 79%
R19: Adelaide
R20: Brisbane Lions
R21: Collingwood
R22: Western Bulldogs
R23: Richmond
WE SAY
The Hawks pulled off a draw against ladder-leader Melbourne on Saturday night in a shock result, which suggests they could yet shake things up a little in the run home. One game and percentage clear of North Melbourne, Hawthorn should avoid the wooden spoon now.
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
Record: 3-1-13, 67.1%
R19: Carlton
R20: Geelong
R21: Richmond
R22: Sydney
R23: Adelaide
WE SAY
The Kangaroos certainly weren’t disgraced on Sunday, giving Essendon a scare as they went down by only 18 points at Metricon Stadium. It will be hard to avoid the wooden spoon from here, but there have been some positive signs for the future across the second half of the season.
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Originally published as The run home: Every AFL club’s remaining games and finals chances rated
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