Mick McGuane: Top six and bottom six players rated for Collingwood v Fremantle
Collingwood and Fremantle both have their stars – but in finals, the bottom six players are just as important. Mick McGuane looks at who must stand up at the G.
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The top six and bottom six players play a key role in determining the results of AFL finals.
But who are they?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane names them ahead of Saturday night’s semi-final between Collingwood and Fremantle and details what they need to do to help get their side over the line in the cutthroat clash.
COLLINGWOOD
TOP SIX
1. JORDAN DE GOEY
De Goey has all the attributes to be a match winner. He is powerful, can sense the occasion, kicks goals when they matter most and is strong around centre bounce and contested situations. We witnessed that last week with two critical goals. He has copped criticism for what has happened off the field, but we are seeing a real maturity from him on the ground, based on his 17 games this season. He played hurt against Geelong last week and was still the Magpies’ best player. It is time to get that contract signed – NOW.
2. DARCY MOORE
Moore is the ‘glue’ down back – an elite interceptor, a fierce competitor, a player who backs his judgement to mark instead of spoiling with a great footy IQ. His performance on Tom Hawkins in the qualifying final was influential, taking away a strong scoring strength from Geelong. He will aim to do the same on Rory Lobb on Saturday night.
3. NICK DAICOS
He is Collingwood’s creative architect who sets up the club’s attack, which is remarkable given he is a first-year player. His presence of mind around congestion is invaluable. He was a little shaky early in his first final, but he will derive an enormous amount of benefit from that experience. He showed incredible maturity to overcome a slow start to become an influential player. Only special players have the sort of deft kicking he has. Footy is about kicking the ball with touch and awareness, and he has got that in spades. If Fremantle let him go without any defensive pressure, they do it at their own peril.
4. SCOTT PENDLEBURY
Even at 34, he is still the steadying influence for Collingwood. He has great composure, is an organiser at stoppages and when in possession of the ball can make the game slow down around him, which is one of the most important attributes to have in finals. He draws the opposition to him, knowing full well that his intention is to put a teammate into space. Pendles does that as well as anyone still in the game.
5. BRAYDEN MAYNARD
The ultimate competitor. He is a heart and soul player that his teammates and the fans love to admire. He gives his all and plays on the edge which finals footy demands. He has got better at controlling his emotions and has now become one of the most important defenders in the competition, highlighted by his selection in the All-Australian team for the first time. He can play on talls and smalls, which will hold him in good stead against the Dockers’ diverse attack, playing on Michael Walters early before spending time on Lachie Schultz as well.
6. JACK CRISP
Last year’s Copeland Trophy winner has again been very consistent this season and there will be even more responsibility on him in this game given Taylor Adams’ absence. There will be times he could be a ‘cooler’ against Caleb Serong or Andrew Brayshaw if needed. He also has that flexibility to go back behind the ball if the Pies are struggling to bounce out of Freo’s end, knowing the Dockers have a strong front-half game and can lock the ball in their forward 50.
BOTTOM SIX
1. MASON COX
There has been strong debate about whether he should have stayed in the team, given his 46 per cent game time last week. Is that an indication that the Magpies are losing faith in him or was it more to do with going small in attack? I would have chosen Nathan Kreuger in preference to Cox to be that aggressive, competitive forward to help Brody Mihocek, who would derive benefit from having another tall teammate in the area. But the Magpies have given Cox another chance.
2. NATHAN MURPHY
This defender is growing in maturity and has enjoyed his best season to date. But against this diverse Fremantle forward line, is there a perfect match-up for Murphy? He is the hybrid who wants to play taller rather than chase the fleet-of-foot Dockers Lachie Schultz, Sam Switkowski, Michael Walters and Michael Frederick. Murphy played on Gary Rohan last week and was well beaten with the Cat kicking three goals and giving another one away to Max Holmes for the match-winning goal. Murphy is improving as a player, but he must control his opponent better than last week.
3. BEAU McCREERY
He might be in the bottom six, but he is very important to the Magpies’ setup as he brings great pressure in Collingwood’s forward 50. His 80 tackles in 2022 is testament to his defensive intent. But his importance will also come back to whether he can take his chances when he gets the ball. He must find targets with his feet and when he has a shot at goal, he needs to convert his opportunities. He has kicked 12.11 this year.
4. ASH JOHNSON
He could be Collingwood’s X-factor, which we have witnessed on a few occasions this year, particularly his game against Melbourne. The question is: Is he fit enough? He went off late in the game last week with a concern. Can he produce another stellar performance in a high-pressure game? He is a marking forward and must take his opportunities. The banana goal from the boundary was brilliant, but don’t give me the set shot snap from 15-20m, which you missed. Ash, you are a beautiful, straight kick, so believe in yourself and make them count!
5. WILL HOSKIN-ELLIOTT
As much as he finds space, Hoskin-Elliott still tends to make mistakes through half-hearted efforts which look as if he is not putting his body on the line at times. He dropped an easy overhead mark at a crucial stage last week. You can’t hide from that. He followed it up with a goal not long after that moment, but he needs to trust his marking ability and ball-handling skills. We know his conversion is a strength as he has kicked 12.4 from 22 games this season but competing strongly and working hard defensively are non-negotiables, something he must master in this all important cutthroat final.
6. TRENT BIANCO
Bianco finds space and he generally uses the ball well and makes good decisions. If he plays a wing-relief role, the Pies might use Josh Daicos or Steele Sidebottom inside the contest to replace the injured Taylor Adams. He can get up and down the ground and offer defensive support as a wingman but also when they go into their forward line he can stop the opposition exiting.
FREMANTLE
TOP SIX
1. ANDREW BRAYSHAW
He is a class act. This season he is the Dockers’ highest average disposal winner (29 per game) and their highest tackling player (141) – showing he works both sides of the ball. He is a terrific clearance player who wins his own ball in contested situations but also gut-runs into space to accumulate the footy. He is the future captain of the Fremantle Football Club – and it should happen next year.
2. LUKE RYAN
Ryan’s importance to the backline is clear in terms of his defensive attributes. He can play as an undersized defender against bigger opponents. But his strength comes from reading the play, winning the ball back and spreading into space to be used as a rebound defender. The Dockers want the ball in his hands because he sets up many attacks with his precise kicking ability.
3. CALEB SERONG
He is a tough and uncompromising midfielder who loves the big moments where he can change momentum. We saw an example of that in last week’s elimination final win over the Western Bulldogs. He has a low centre of gravity, which is why he is so clean at ground level. He wins critical 50/50 contests and is prepared to chase down the opposition post clearance. To go to another level he must hit the scoreboard more. He has only kicked five goals this year.
4. SEAN DARCY
Darcy is now one of the AFL’s best ruckmen. He looks nondescript in the way he lopes around the ground, but gets the job done with his strength at stoppages, giving Brayshaw, Serong and Will Brodie first use. Darcy has had 672 hitouts this year and doesn’t mind winning the contested ball with his follow-up effort. Against the Magpies, he needs to dominate the game against Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox.
5. WILL BRODIE
What a year this bloke has had! He seemed to be the scrap heap at Gold Coast, but has reinvented himself with renewed enthusiasm and an appetite for hard work. He is a very good clearance player, leading the Dockers in that facet of the game this season ahead of David Mundy, Serong and Brayshaw. His transformation in the space of 23 games has been remarkable – averaging 27 disposals and laying 116 tackles. Collingwood cannot afford to underestimate him.
6. BRENNAN COX
What Darcy Moore is to Collingwood, Brennan Cox is to Fremantle. I love defenders who can mark it back from the opposition. This bloke can do it as well as Moore – having taken 35 contested marks with 148 one-percenters compared to the Magpies’ defender with 33 contested marks and 186 one-percenters. He will likely play on the taller back-up ruckman, leaving Alex Pearce to go to Brody Mihocek.
THE BOTTOM SIX
1. JYE AMISS
This week will be a big challenge for the two-game Dockers forward who kicked two important goals in the elimination final against the Bulldogs. To come to Melbourne and face a hostile Collingwood crowd will be a baptism of fire. How will he handle the heat that comes his way on Saturday night? He could be playing at times on Nathan Murphy, Jeremy Howe and Brayden Maynard, so there will be nowhere to hide.
2. NATHAN O’DRISCOLL
He might be listed in the bottom six, but he has a bright future. He just plays his role. He might have only played 11 games this year, but he backs himself in critical moments, including that team-lifting goal he nailed from the boundary line last week. He has the right temperament to deal with any situation he finds himself in.
3. MICHAEL FREDERICK
Who hasn’t been seduced by Frederick’s speed? He is electric in offence and his defensive pressure in attack was on display when he ran down Ed Richards last week, resulting in a goal to Michael Walters. It was stirring stuff. He has been well trusted this season with 21 games, offering up 50 tackles as a forward half pressure player. Importantly, he has hurt opposition teams in other ways, too, hitting the scoreboard with 26 goals. He’s a big watch.
4. BRANDON WALKER
Frederick is doing it at one end; Brandon Walker is doing it at the other. Walker has been a revelation this season. He is super quick and if he can charge down the middle of the MCG bouncing the ball he will ignite the crowd. He is 19 years old and has played only 30 games, but he looks like a player for the future. He could be asked to play on Jack Ginnivan this week.
5. GRIFFIN LOGUE
Fremantle’s swingman played forward last week to support Rory Lobb. He gives the team flexibility and I’m anticipating they will play him forward again to keep Collingwood’s defenders honest through his competitiveness and energy. He still has some forward 50 craft to master, but the more exposure he gets, the better. The Dockers must divide and conquer Collingwood’s defensive system. Has Logue got the footy smarts to help achieve that?
6. JAMES AISH
He might be a bit stiff to be in the bottom six as he has played some good footy. He comes up against his old club Collingwood in a final. Justin Longmuir calls him “Mr Fix-It” and he can be trusted to go to an opposition midfielder and curtail their output. He did that to a rampant Clayton Oliver in the second half in the Dockers’ win over the Demons earlier this season. Could Aish go to his former captain Scott Pendlebury this time around?
# RATINGS ARE BASED ON THE PLAYERS’ IMPACT ACROSS THE 2022 SEASON, NOT SIMPLY LAST WEEK OR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. SELECTION IS BASED NOT ON TALENT, BUT ON THE IMPORTANCE TO THE TEAM FOR THIS MATCH
Demons v Lions: Who has the strongest top six?
The top six and bottom six players play a key role in determining the results of AFL finals.
But who are they?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane names them ahead of Friday night’s semi-final between Melbourne and Brisbane and details what they need to do to help get their side over the line in the cutthroat clash.
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MELBOURNE
TOP 6
1. CLAYTON OLIVER
He’s Melbourne’s midfield barometer and the clearance king of the competition. Oliver gets his hands on so many hit-outs, which allows him to kick start the Demons’ offence using his breakaway speed or creative handball. But if the ball doesn’t come to him, he hunts the opposition and tackles effectively. Oliver also has a great balance between his contested possessions and his uncontested possessions. He kicked two crucial goals last week — which he needs to do more of to further lift his standing in the competition.
2. MAX GAWN
Just give him the No. 1 ruck mantle, Goody. Put your captain in the guts to start a final. Don’t worry about starting him forward and letting Luke Jackson do the ruck work. Gawn’s stoppage work in combination with Oliver, Petracca and Viney will be critical against a weaker Brisbane ruck combination on the back of Oscar McInerney’s concussion last week. Play him in the ruck where he does the most damage which allows him to influence in the air between the arcs and support his defenders.
3. CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
He’s got the hairline fracture in his leg and it will take great courage for him to get out there on Friday night but even more so to be an impactful player. Petracca is a quality centre-bounce player who can also drift forward at the right time and hit the scoreboard. Unfortunately, his accuracy has been poor this season with 19.29 — something that he needs to tidy up. In a final, you need to take your opportunities. Remember, if you put your hand up to play in a final there is no time for excuses.
4. STEVEN MAY
The defensive traffic cop, May backs his judgment, spoils aggressively when he has to and takes great marks when they’re required. He’s taken 28 contested marks this year, which is second only to Max Gawn at the Demons. May reads incoming balls extremely well and by backing his judgment he helps generate Melbourne’s turnover game. His contest with Lance Franklin last week was defining and he could hold his head high from the qualifying final loss. Knocking over Joe Daniher is next on the menu.
5. JACK VINEY
This bloke has had an excellent year. He’s averaging 26 disposals, he’s Melbourne’s best tackler and he’s a very good clearance player. The knock has always been Viney’s efficiency with ball in hand at times, as he does make some mistakes. But he brings a hardness and a steely resolve that the team needs, which the Demons have been a bit flaky with overall. The one thing you can bank on with Viney is he will never compromise his assault on the footy and that sets the scene for his teammates. He is made for September.
6. ANGUS BRAYSHAW
Given his ability to impact in multiple roles, Brayshaw is a critically important player for the Demons. While he brings ball-winning ability as a midfielder, defensively he doesn’t transition and tackle as well as he should in that role. I prefer to see him on a wing, where he can roll back strongly to support the defence and be another interceptor for his team. He effectively becomes a seventh defender. In offensive transition, he is a good uncontested ball winner on the back of his ability to read the play.
BOTTOM 6
1. JAKE MELKSHAM
He’s in the team at the moment as part of Melbourne’s forward 50, but is hanging on by a thread. Against Sydney last week, Melksham was poor with bad misses in front of goal, having an inside-50 entry smothered and missing a handball to a teammate in a better position. He has played some good games in the second half of this year — including booting four goals against Carlton in Round 22 — but as a bottom-six player in a tough role he must take all the opportunities that present.
2. JAYDEN HUNT
A speedster out of defence, Hunt could play a significant role in this game. He may find himself playing on the likes of Dayne Zorko, Lincoln McCarty or Jarrod Berry. Hunt must be strong defensively on such players and not allow them to hit the scoreboard, while also using his run to help provide the Demons end-to-end ball movement. He can become a 70-80 metre player with his run, bounce and ball use when he is on song.
3. CHARLIE SPARGO
He plays a difficult role as a small forward, being required to apply pressure and then be an opportunist when chances present. Spargo can find space through his ability to read the game, generally uses the ball well going inside 50 and can kick a goal. However, he is averaging only 11.8 disposals a game and has kicked just 10.11 from 23 matches this year. If he can find a few more touches each week, Melbourne will be a much better team.
4. BEN BROWN
I was really disappointed with how Brown was physically intimidated by Dane Rampe last week. Rampe pushed and prodded him where he wanted him to go and Brown effectively accepted it. As a big-bodied key forward, you can’t afford to be physically challenged and just accept it. Get some mongrel in you, Ben. This is a cut throat final. Stop being dictated to physically. Brown also needs to stop leading wide. Sometimes you just need to come up the middle of the ground and take a pack mark to impose yourself on the game.
5. ALEX NEAL-BULLEN
Neal-Bullen is a role-player who is very important to Melbourne’s system. He’s in the team to get up the ground and saturate stoppages as he has great endurance to get up and get back inside forward 50. He also brings great pressure and loves to tackle. But for Neal-Bullen to add more merit to his team selection, he needs to take his chances more often and finish off his hard work. He’s kicked 7.16 this season and sometimes you sit back and think, ‘How did he miss that?’
6. TRENT RIVERS
I expected Rivers to be a player who would emerge in the competition this year. However, he has plateaued a little and has played just 17 games after being sent back to the seconds for five weeks in the middle part of the year. Rivers is an attacking defender who generally kicks the ball well and plays with great energy and hardness. But I’d like to see him get back to being the quality intercept marker that he can be and be a bit more disciplined, given his tendency to give away too many free kicks.
BRISBANE
TOP 6
1. LACHIE NEALE
He is clearly Brisbane’s best player and last week’s performance was one for the ages. His ability to extract the ball from contested situations is elite and that’s on the back of good ball handling but also having a feel for where the space is and knowing a teammate will run into it. Expect Neale to get some closer attention from Melbourne — potentially from James Harmes — after he had his second-most disposals for the year with 39 against Richmond last week, along with 15 clearances and nine score involvements.
2. HUGH McCLUGGAGE
An incredibly well-rounded player, McCluggage can play as an inside or outside midfielder to win plenty of the ball but can also push forward and hit the scoreboard. He’s kicked 19 goals this season, along with being the Lions’ second-highest possession winner this season behind Neale. The other thing that really impresses me is McCluggage’s willingness to work both sides of the ball, something a lot of the other Brisbane midfielders don’t do. He is a “gut” runner that gets from contest to contest.
3. DANIEL RICH
The veteran backman brings a lot of composure and effective ball use from kick-ins or in general play. Rich’s ability to kick to the advantage of teammates is elite and he very rarely makes mistakes either with his decision-making or execution. The speed of Brisbane’s ball movement is generally on the back of Rich kickstarting it out of a very important area of the ground. To pierce through Melbourne’s defensive structure, the Lions will need a big game from Rich.
4. HARRIS ANDREWS
He has had an up-and-down year, but this is Andrews’ time to shine and solidify his standing as one of the best key defenders in the competition. He will be the first player to go to Ben Brown and he has to ensure he takes away the Demon key forward’s aerial strength with great spoils, competitive urgency and the discipline to not give away silly free kicks in frustration. He would have learnt a lot from Tom Lynch’s leading patterns last week, which are not dissimilar to those of Brown’s. Both generally lead in straight lines when coming up at the ball as a marking option.
5. ZAC BAILEY
Bailey brings some class and speed as centre-forward player and possesses finishing ability that the team desperately needs. He can have five or six kicks but boot two or three goals. He reads the ball well off hands as a crumbing option, but is also agile and can change angles quickly to open up space for himself. He generally finds the best option by foot but if nothing is on he takes the grass that’s in front of him to slot a running goal. In finals, players like Bailey that can change the momentum of a game through acts of sheer brilliance.
6. CHARLIE CAMERON
If he gets the better of likely opponent Michael Hibberd, Cameron could be a point of difference. The Lions just need to ensure they don’t rely on him being an isolated deep forward, a situation which suits Hibberd. I’d like to see Cameron get up the ground and outside 50 and then race Hibberd back to goal. If he does get three or four opportunities, his exquisite skills mean he can hit the scoreboard — which he must do after failing to kick a goal from his two games against the Demons so far this year. Time to step up!
BOTTOM 6
1. DARCY WILMOT
On debut against Richmond last week, Wilmot was OK with 11 disposals after coming into the side to replace the suspended Noah Answerth. It’s early days to judge an 18-year-old in his first year, but he looks a capable player and coach Chris Fagan clearly had significant faith in Wilmot to blood him in a final. He has good pace which will be required against the likes of Kysiah Pickett and Spargo.
2. CALLUM AH CHEE
A multi-positional player, Ah Chee can play forward, down back or on a wing. That provides the team with great versatility and adaptability. However, irrespective of what role he plays he has to bring great effort and urgency because that’s when he plays his best footy. Ah Chee has had a reasonable season but managed only seven touches against Richmond last week. When you’re having low numbers like that, you have to maximise your impact from them and Ah Chee needs to continue to work on his execution and decision making. He can’t afford the odd clanger that he is prone to making.
3. DARCY GARDINER
Gardiner has played the third-fiddle in defence behind Harris Andrews and Marcus Adams for much of the year. But with Adams missing in action with concussion at the moment, he will likely have a key match-up on Melbourne’s Bailey Fritsch. Gardiner needs to be ruthless in his pursuit to dry up Frisch’s leading lanes and spoil aggressively to ensure he does not get out-marked. Fritsch is a dangerous player if he is given opportunities.
4. DEVEN ROBERTSON
After featuring in 16 games last season, Robertson has been in and out of the Lions’ side this year and has played just six matches. However, he came back into the senior team for last week’s elimination final against Richmond and played an important run-with role on Dion Prestia and then Trent Cotchin. Robertson is tough in the contest and logged a team-high 24 pressure acts to go with 12 disposals and an important third-quarter goal. Expect Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca to be his run-with assignments this week.
5. DARCY FORT
The ruckman has played 17 games this season and has been quite serviceable. But Fort’s output against the Melbourne ruck combination of Max Gawn and Luke Jackson will be highly compelling either way. If he plays poorly, that will fuel the Demons’ contest and territory game. If he plays really well, he could take away a lot of hit-outs to advantage and potentially disrupt Melbourne getting a clear advantage around stoppages. The Demons’ turnover game has deserted them lately which means they are relying more on scores from stoppages, so Fort has to step up and ensure the Melbourne midfielder don’t have an armchair ride.
6. ERIC HIPWOOD
At the moment, there is not much difference between Hipwood and fellow forward Joe Daniher when it comes to their output. Their reputations on the back of their own performances precede them. Hipwood will likely be matched up by Harrison Petty and needs to step up once again against a fellow bottom-six player for Melbourne. Whoever can master that match-up could play a key role in determining the result of the game.
WHO HAS GOT THE EDGE?
Melbourne has got the edge, not only from a talent point of view with their top six and bottom six players, but also from a psychological point of view. The Demons have twice monstered Brisbane this year through being measly in defence and really strong around contest. Expect Melbourne’s bottom six to have a significant say in the outcome, while the Demons’ A-Graders also have more potential to separate the game.
TIP: Melbourne by 30 points
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