Mick McGuane: Horror seasons could get worse for likes of Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon
Why are the Blues not giving their kids a chance to shine? Mick McGuane wonders if the club has already decided on their futures.
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We’re not even halfway through the season, yet some of the AFL’s most famous clubs are not only struggling … they are already out of finals contention.
So what’s left for one-time powerhouse clubs Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and Hawthorn to salvage out of a disappointing 2021?
What’s been the big changes for North Melbourne and Adelaide in the past month? Here is a deep dive into the underperforming clubs of 2021.
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COLLINGWOOD
This has been a brutal reality check for the Magpies and coach Nathan Buckley. The scary thing is it could get ever messier.
Two wins from nine games, and there are issues everywhere, particularly in offence and their front-half game.
The Magpies have won only 14 of 36 quarters played. On eight occasions they have kicked only one goal or less in a term.
Let’s not sugar-coat this – Collingwood’s ability to apply scoreboard pressure is inept.
Four times this year they have kicked 60 or fewer points, averaging only 71.4 per game – ranked 14th.
The pre-game coaching match-ups, method and mindset has been positive as they have won six of their first nine quarters.
But what goes wrong after that?
The ball doesn’t go inside 50 enough (15th for inside 50m differential), and when it does it’s not effective, it doesn’t stay there (16th for forward half pressure). That lack of pressure means they are not forcing enough turnovers or creating enough forward half intercepts (15th) to have a strong attacking game.
Brody Mihocek and Jordan De Goey need better supply and pressure to keep the ball inside 50.
This requires a lift from Steele Sidebottom, Josh Thomas and Callum Brown.
Why is Beau McCreery – after seven games – the club’s best forward 50 pressure player? It’s no coincidence he has kicked more goals than Thomas and Callum Brown combined.
Perhaps the Magpies should give Tyson Stengle an AFL lifeline. They desperately need a small, creative, pressure forward who can hit the scoreboard.
The players’ defensive intent around the ball is an indictment.
Brodie Grundy, as a ruckman, is Collingwood’s highest tackler (43) this season. That’s embarrassing!
It’s a different story at top-of-the-table Melbourne.
Max Gawn has had 18 tackles compared to James Jordan (60), Clayton Oliver (52) and Jack Viney (35 from five games).
Get to work Magpie mids … time for serious tackling intent.
The loss of Taylor Adams, Jamie Elliott and now Jeremy Howe has hurt a young team that has already fielded 35 players, equal second most in the AFL.
Buckley is feeling the heat … and rightly so.
Imagine the blowtorch that will come if they lose to Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide and Melbourne in the next month.
This next month of footy could determine Buckley’s fate.
ESSENDON
When Ben Rutten took over as coach, he promised a sustainable defensive game style as his cornerstone.
The irony is that the Bombers have been involved in the highest scoring matches of 2021 (total match points averaging 184).
I’m confused by this.
Having targeted defence as the area of improvement, the Bombers are still getting dragged into shootouts.
Their defence, too, remains a concern.
We saw that in Round 1 when Hawthorn ran them down after Essendon had a big lead. Good structured defences do not allow that to happen.
Essendon is ranked 4th for attack and 14th for defence.
They have missed Sam Draper in the ruck, as well as Michael Hurley down back and they will miss Jake Stringer’s presence for a few weeks.
Dyson Heppell to halfback has been a win. Zach Merrett, Andrew McGrath and Darcy Parish have been good in the midfield.
The midfield conundrum could come when Devon Smith (three weeks away) and Dylan Shiel (eight to 10 weeks) come back into the side.
How Rutten manages his mids will be a pointer to what happens in the future.
McGrath is the club’s best two-way runner; Parish’s form has blossomed since becoming a starting on-baller; do they move Merrett out to a wing or would that be unpalatable to him in the last year of his contract; how will Shiel handle not being right in among the action when he returns?
The challenge will be whether these players prioritise team needs over self-interest, which hasn’t always been the case.
Youngsters Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Harrison Jones are rippers.
CARLTON
If North Melbourne can change its defensive mindset, why can’t the Blues.
Carlton’s No. 1 concern is defence, and not far behind that is their inability to transition the ball as well as their contest work.
The Blues still allow the opposition to score 93 points per game.
As good as Jacob Weitering has been, and at times, Liam Jones, the opposition scores far too often against the Blues.
They recruited Zac Williams to be a midfielder alongside Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. He has returned to halfback to get some form back, but the question is why it took so long for David Teague to pull the lever.
We’ve seen instances this season where Williams and Cripps together – as good as they are at winning contested ball – have hurt the team with defensive transitions.
Walsh has taken his game to a new level this year.
If they want to play finals, they must defend better for longer, improve their contest work and transition from back to front.
Levi Casboult has been a good servant, but with Tom De Koning available, he needs to be the priority to play alongside Harry McKay as well as assisting Marc Pittonet.
McKay has been great this season. Wouldn’t he love Charlie Curnow playing alongside him right now?
The Blues have too much faith in older players and there is a revolving door for some of their high-end draft picks, including Lochie O’Brien and Paddy Dow.
Why are the Blues not pinning enough faith on their kids to shine? Or do they already know the answer as to their futures?
HAWTHORN
Hawks fans, fasten your seatbelts … this ain’t going to be a quick fix.
This rebuild could take up to seven years.
The club opted to play for the now, prioritising recycled players ahead of draft picks, and is now paying the price.
We know Clarko is loyal, and has a contract until the end of 2022. If he is prepared to go the distance, he is the man for the job, but it will be a hard slog.
The Hawks can’t score, they are defensively poor and their contested/clearance returns have been the worst and second worst for the past two seasons.
Their once-renowned team defence and ability to defend with the ball – which was at the heart of their successful years with Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Grant Birchall, Isaac Smith and Shaun Burgoyne – is a distant memory.
Talent when in possession of the ball just isn’t there anymore.
The most confusing part is that the Hawks are playing a fast-style game, considering they have poor ball users and decision makers, which leads to far too many turnovers, allowing the opposition to score.
They recruited Tom Phillips as a running wingman, but what does he do when he gets the footy?
Harry Morrison and Liam Shiels just don’t have the creativity that Smith and Brad Hill used to display.
They have an ageing ruckman in Ben McEvoy who can’t jump like he used to. When he gets first hands on it, it works; when he doesn’t, the mids are immediately on the back foot.
The commentary around Tom Mitchell is flawed. He has come back from some horrendous injuries, isn’t getting a lot of help and is still averaging 33 disposals per game, even though his clearance numbers are down.
Jaeger O’Meara has been a tick so far this season, not so James Worpel, who is miles away from his 2019 best and fairest form.
There are questions galore in attack. Luke Breust is 30 and has kicked 14.5, but with Jack Gunston out injured again, who is helping out.
Will Mitch Lewis and Jacob Koschitzke make it?
Is Tim O’Brien just a tease?
Chad Wingard was recruited as a mid/forward and his best is good. But too often we see the other side to that. He must find some consistency.
Changkuoth Jiath has been impressive down back, but Will Day is a big loss, with their back six still dealing with James Sicily’s absence.
NORTH MELBOURNE
It’s good to see the Kangaroos get some reward for effort with David Noble’s ability to preach process over outcome.
There have been clear improvements defensively compared to the first four rounds, as well as improved ball movement.
From Rounds 1 to 4, the opposition was scoring an average of 123 points against them. They have cut that back to 90 across the past five rounds.
They are harder to score against, and scoring better themselves.
Nick Larkey, recruited as a pick No. 73, is meant to be the Roos’ No. 1 forward. Let’s be honest, he’s no James Hird (who was a pick 79).
He’s below average or poor in most of the stats. North fans have to accept him for what he is, and hopefully he can grow into the role but needs support.
The improvement of Ben McKay is noticeable in a decimated defence. The Jack Ziebell move to half back has worked.
Jy Simpkin looks like a future captain. Ben Cunnington is so crucial.
Luke Davies-Uniacke and Cam Zurhaar display potential, but need to become more consistent.
Is Zurhaar a forward/mid or a mid/forward? His forward half pressure rating is 18.6 – below average, which is at odds with the bash and crash he relishes.
ADELAIDE
The Crows’ scoring has dried up which is a real concern heading into the second half of the season.
They have gone from the third highest scoring team of the first four rounds (98.6) to ranked 18th in the last five weeks (64.8).
Their scores from inside 50s and points from stoppages have plummeted to 18th.
Their scoring profile and contest work has also fallen off a cliff.
Matthew Nicks is big on “contest” and the Crows were good early in this regard but have now fallen to 12th on this measurement.
Some of the Crows‘ leaders are having good season, including Taylor Walker, the two Rorys (Sloane and Laird) and Brodie Smith has rediscovered his rebounding dare from half back.
Some of the Crows’ kids need a lift.
Nicks did a solid job at the back end of last season and that translated into some good performances early this year.
The challenge now is to rediscover before the season slips away from them.
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