Mick McGuane: Carlton’s evolution into a genuine top-four contender
Scores from stoppages are a strength of this year’s Carlton side, but it’s another area which has them in the conversation as a serious finals contender.
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Right now, Michael Voss’ Carlton side are the Brutal Blues.
They’re playing tough and uncompromising football. Their brand is easily identifiable. They’re combative in the contest, are a strong clearance team and their territory game is in good shape as a result. Players up field are trusting their forwards which is delivering high scores.
But Friday night’s clash with Sydney might just be their toughest test yet and will give us a much clearer picture of just where Carlton sits in the pecking order.
The Blues have added some significant layers to their game in recent weeks, albeit against struggling lower-ranked sides.
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They now have a more rounded game which will be put to the test against the fifth-placed Swans.
For Carlton, it will be ‘Operation: Bring the Heat’.
It’s no secret that Sydney has been a poor first-quarter team this season.
If Carlton can bring an early Blues blitz, it will go a long way to determining the result.
The start to this game will be manic and pulsating.
The Carlton evolution
In the early rounds of the season, I had significant concerns that Carlton’s game style was unsustainable.
The Blues might have been chalking up some wins — by narrow margins — but they were relying too heavily on scores from stoppages dragging them across the line.
In the past three weeks, we have seen some tweaks for the better that have left Carlton’s scoring profile looking like a top-four team.
Scores from stoppages are a strength of this side and you don’t want to dilute your strengths.
However, the Blues have also been able to make scores from turnovers a strength in recent weeks.
If you can master both on a consistent basis, you are going to be a formidable force.
From rounds 1-6, Carlton ranked 13th for scores from turnovers, averaging 43.5 points per game from the source.
Its forward half intercepts numbered just 20.3 a game over the same period, ranking 14th.
Since round 7, the Blues have averaged 69 points from turnovers (ranked 2nd) and 24 forward half intercepts (ranked 7th).
This improvement has come while Voss’ side has maintained its contest and clearance strength.
Carlton still ranks second for scores from stoppages this season, averaging 38 points a game.
To identify areas of weakness after round 6 and put methods in place to improve the turnover game is a credit to the Blues playing group and coaching staff.
This is the reason why they are now clearly in the conversation as a serious finals contender — provided they can maintain that new-found balance.
It has been no surprise to see Carlton kick over 100 points in each of their past three games given this improved scoring profile — and three-figure scores are going to win you most games.
The next pieces of the puzzle
The next evolution of Carlton’s game centres on solidifying a team defence that has shown itself to be vulnerable at times.
The Blues rank 13th for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 ball movement and concede a score from 44.3 per cent of opposition inside 50s, which ranks them 12th.
While Carlton’s own turnover game has improved, it still ranks 11th this season for opposition scores from turnovers, conceding an average of 49.4 points from the source.
This week brings the acid test.
Sydney is the best ball movement team in the competition coming out of its defensive 50.
The Swans like to move the ball quickly, use the open side and back themselves to play through the corridor when it’s on.
They shift the ball off-line with quick decisions and quick ball movement, which unsettles opposition defences.
That is why it needs to be ‘Operation: Bring the Heat’ for the Blues this week.
Carlton has been a side that has put pressure on opposition teams on the scoreboard this season, but its actual pressure applied numbers are poor.
The Blues rank 13th in the competition for pressure applied with a pressure factor of 178.
The forwards and the midfielders will need to be on their A-Game against the Swans to apply pressure and try and create turnovers so they don’t leave their defence exposed.
If Carlton wants to be taken seriously in the finals conversation, it needs to show its defensive system can stand up to Sydney all over the ground.
The players getting it done
Voss is playing his players in their rightful positions this year — to great effect.
Doing so is not only giving the side great balance, but is also giving players ownership of their positions.
The midfield bulls of Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and a lighter Matthew Kennedy have been well supported by the outside class of Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra.
Cripps has played a greater role forward this season and has become a serious aerial threat, which has helped him kick the most goals of any midfielder in the competition with 13.
Zac Williams is now sidelined through injury, but he has clearly looked more comfortable behind the ball and is delivering better results in defence despite originally eyeing a midfield move.
The decision by Voss to play Sam Docherty in round 1 was an inspired one and his return from a cancer battle has reinvigorated the playing group as one of the great stories of the year, if not the greatest.
Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay had played together on few occasions before this year but have become one of the best key forward combinations in the competition.
At their feet, I’ve also loved the work of the small forwards in Zac Fisher, Matthew Owies and Corey Durdin.
Owies is a player who I always felt had natural forward craft but the Carlton coaches have challenged him to realise there is more to his role than just kicking goals.
The early selection of Corey Durdin raised some eyebrows, but I really enjoy watching coaches have faith in players and last week’s AFL Rising Star nominee has repaid it.
Why the question Mark still remains
Yes, Carlton has improved its game and won its past three games on the trot.
But those wins have come against Greater Western Sydney (15th), Adelaide (14th) and North Melbourne (17th).
The fact is that the Blues have only played two current top-eight sides so far — Richmond and Fremantle — for a 1-1 record.
They beat the Tigers by 25 points in round 1 on the back of a seven-goal final term against a weary and underdone opposition.
They failed the test against the Dockers in Perth in round 6, falling 35 points short.
That is why this week’s game is so crucial for Carlton to prove its legitimacy — and set itself up for a genuine run at the top-four.
The Blues face the Swans and Collingwood over the next two weeks and would sit 9-2 heading into their bye if they can win both.
However, a loss to the Swans would see questions remain over Carlton’s contender status and still leave the side with a lot of work to do to secure a finals double chance.
Carlton v Sydney – three key match-ups
LANCE FRANKLIN V JACOB WEITERING
You’d think Sydney’s best forward would be picked up by Carlton’s best defender in what could be an intriguing battle. I’d expect Franklin to get on his bike and push up the ground, challenging Weitering to make a decision on whether to go all the way with him or to zone off. If Franklin pushes up the ground and Weitering goes with him, the likes of Isaac Heeney could do some serious damage one-on-one against a Nick Newman. If Weitering doesn’t go with Franklin, we know the Swans veteran is still capable of kicking long goals from outside-50 and setting up teammates in attack with precision field kicking.
PATRICK CRIPPS V JOSH KENNEDY
Kennedy has been squeezed out of the centre this year, but if I was John Longmire I’d be sending the veteran back inside the square to face off with Cripps. An experienced warrior, Kennedy has the size to go toe-to-toe with Cripps and try to take away his first-possession gains at centre bounces and at stoppages around the ground. I’d be putting it on Kennedy to nullify Cripps and play a selfless, disciplined and combative role against him. Once in general play, Kennedy could go back to a wing and Callum Mills could be a cooler on the Carlton captain, except when he goes forward where he can be handed over to Paddy McCartin or Dayne Rampe.
CHARLIE CURNOW V TOM MCCARTIN
With Harry McKay sidelined, Curnow is the main man in the Blues attack and the Swans will have a heavy focus on limiting his influence. I’d be sending McCartin to Curnow and having his brother, Paddy, to be a “drop off” defender so he can give strong aerial support to his brother to not allow the Blues’ spearhead to mark it. Curnow is a beast when it comes to contested marks. We know Dane Rampe is also a quality intercept player for the Swans, so Carlton will have to be careful not to be too Curnow conscious. Jack Silvagni and Tom De Koning, when playing forward, must be other avenues to goal.
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