AFL Finals 2022: Full week 1 fixture and early preview
Week one of AFL finals has four blockbuster matches in store. We analyse where each game will be won and lost and answer the key questions for every premiership contender.
AFL News
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL News. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The finals are upon us and there is sure to be plenty of twists in what has been a captivating season to date.
Will superstar goalkickers Jeremy Cameron and Tom Lynch play, and if so, who can stop them?
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE FOR THE FULL WEEK 1 FIXTURE
Can Collingwood’s miracle run continue, and can Geelong and Brisbane break their finals hoodoos?
Sam Landsberger outlines where each match will be won and lost, and provides the latest selection mail.
Watch every blockbuster AFL match this weekend Live & Ad-Break Free In-Play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
Brisbane vs Richmond, GABBA
HOW BIG IS THE FINALS MONKEY ON BRISBANE’S BACK?
Large and it will become monstrous if the Lions fail on the big stage again. Under Chris Fagan they’re 1-6 in September — in 2019 they lost to Richmond (47 points) and GWS (three points), in 2020 they beat Richmond (15 points) and lost to Geelong (40 points) and in 2021 they lost to Melbourne (33 points) and Western Bulldogs (one point). The kicker is five of those matches were at the Gabba fortress. They’ve been belted around the ball in big games and are ranked 15th for points against since round 10 this year. Time to stand up or be laughed at.
CAN ANYONE STOP TOM LYNCH?
Only his body, it seems. Lynch was substituted out on Saturday night after booting 21 goals in four games. That golden run started with four-second half goals against the Lions as Richmond overturned a 42-point deficit. Will that mesmerising comeback leave any mental scars for the Lions? Lynch’s contested marking is the best in the game right now and full-back Harris Andrews isn’t in the best form. Compounding matters, there’s no easier finalist to score against recently than the Lions. Intercepting weapon Marcus Adams should return in a big boost to Brisbane’s back half.
SELECTION MAIL
There’s no bigger potential inclusion than Dustin Martin who hasn’t played since round 16. Martin alongside Tom Lynch (groin) are both expected to be ready to go after the bye while Jack Graham (toe) is touch and go. Marcus Adams and Callum Ah Chee should return from concussion although Cameron Rayner and Noah Answerth were offered one-match suspensions. Will the Lions fight Rayner’s ban? Or will they turn to the experienced Mitch Robinson, who had 41 disposals in the VFL? And do they play tall Darcy Fort who has been the source of conjecture all season?
LAST TIME THEY MET: Richmond 14.13 (107) def Brisbane Lions 15.14 (104) at the MCG in round 20
THE VERDICT: RICHMOND by 28 points.
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
Melbourne v Sydney, MCG
HOW BIG IS CONTESTED BALL?
Midfield muscle is Melbourne’s one-wood, but it’s also been the secret to Sydney’s success. The Swans are 12-1 win they win the count and 4-5 when they lost it. With the dash and panache of Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and co you suspect the Swans will sizzle if they are first to the ball against the likes of bulls Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney. In June Sydney suffocated Melbourne, laying 73 tackles – eight Swans had more than five – as a 26-point deficit became a watershed win against the premiers. For Melbourne, territory is king – the Dees are 13-1 when they win the inside 50 count.
WILL THE DEES ROCK THE ‘G?
Max King helped deliver the Dees a home qualifying final and long-suffering fans locked down for last year’s flag in Perth will finally get to see their premiership team at the MCG in September. Christian Petracca – who will play against the man chosen before him in the 2014 draft, Paddy McCartin – suggested frosty temperatures and elderly fans were behind smaller crowds this year. The Dees are guaranteed not to leave the MCG all September, but they are in a dangerous half of the draw given a loss to the Swans could set up a match against the dangerous Tigers. Buddy Franklin — will he or won’t he play on? — and Steven May both missed this year’s match-up, but that duel will be worth admission alone.
SELECTION MAIL
Tom McDonald will play VFL next week but Melbourne’s attack is functioning smoothly and it would be a huge shock if he was rushed in for the qualifying final. Christian Salem is likely to replace Jake Bowey in the sole change. The Swans are basically fully fit and settled heading into September. They have depth too — youngsters Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean have been excellent in the VFL if needed while veteran Harry Cunningham is also waiting in the wings.
LAST TIME THEY MET: Melbourne 9.7 (61) def by Sydney 10.13 (73) at the MCG in round 12
SAM LANDSBERGER’S VERDICT: SYDNEY by 1 point.
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
Geelong vs Collingwood, MCG
DOES GEELONG’S 1-8 RECORD IN WEEK ONE OF FINALS SINCE 2011 MATTER?
No. Perhaps not since Geelong in 2008 or maybe Richmond in 2019 has a club marched into September this hot. Coach Chris Scott said months ago he’d rather risk missing finals than limp in and their meticulous planning has paid dividends at every turn. Patrick Dangerfield was revitalized with a mid-year pre-season, Joel Selwood has enjoyed four rests and the Cats have refreshed their midfield on the run. These Cats are on a 13-game winning streak so you can totally wipe historical comparisons. Funnily, that 1-8 record to start September would’ve been 0-9 if then-Hawk Isaac Smith kicked truly after the siren in the 2016 qualifying final.
CAN COLLINGWOOD CONTAIN GEELONG’S “BIG EGOS”?
The Magpies rollicked to a 37-point lead against Geelong in April before Jeremy Cameron — described by captain Joel Selwood as a “big ego” — walked to the three quarter-time huddle and said: “Just kick it to me”. It worked. Cameron (six goals) and Tom Hawkins (three goals) led an avalanche of goals in the comeback win against a Magpies side regarded at the time as closer to bottom four than top four. Much has changed since. These Magpies are not to be underestimated — just ask Carlton or Melbourne — and they were on world-record pace for winning contested ball against the Cats during their surge. In round 3 a crowd of 60,000 booed Selwood — expect that to be much louder in this qualifying final.
SELECTION MAIL
Jeremy Cameron (hamstring) will be fine for the first final while the Cats are confident on Cameron Guthrie and Rhys Stanley. The debate will be over whether Sam Menegola returns after Brandan Parfitt starred against the Eagles. Taylor Adams could force Finlay Macrae out of Collingwood’s team if he recovers from a groin injury. One other selection question — who is coach of the year? Surely it is between Chris Scott and Craig McRae.
LAST TIME THEY MET: Collingwood 13.13 (91) def by 16.8 (104)
THE VERDICT: GEELONG by 23 points.
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs, Perth Stadium
CAN THE DOGS CONJURE ANOTHER SEPTEMBER MIRACLE?
They’ve made Grand Finals from 7th (2016) and 5tth (2021) and their premiership run also started with an elimination final in Perth ... in a season where Geelong and Sydney were in the top four. They are 9-1 when they win contested ball by at least 10 — but that sole loss was against the Dockers due to a stagnant first half. This campaign has been far less fluent than 2016 and 2021 but there must be a genuine fear factor about the Dogs in September, particularly against a Fremantle team filled with finals virgins, and if they roll the Dockers they’ll play a semi-final at the MCG. There’s plenty of red, white and blue in the purple camp — assistant coach Matthew Boyd and football boss Bob Murphy are ex-Dog captains while former goalkicker Simon Garlick is the CEO.
IS FREO A FLAG THREAT WITHOUT THE DOUBLE CHANCE?
The Dockers have travelled 10 times this year for seven and a half wins and so they can do some damage. But bouncing out the Bulldogs before peeling off three victories east? Maybe not. Rory Lobb — who is likely to lob at Whitten Oval next year — shapes as the key. This month he booted 4.2 and looked unstoppable at Marvel Stadium. Could Josh Bruce be given that task this time around after Sam Darcy’s forward exploits against the Hawks?
SELECTION MAIL
For the Dockers, key-position trio Matt Taberner, Rory Lobb and Griffin Logue should all return while Nat Fyfe had an important game under his belt and is set to play in the WAFL next week. Logue trained on Friday and was only narrowly ruled out of Saturday’s game while fringe players Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes will also get WAFL minutes. Rhylee West was an unlucky omission at the Dogs while Jason Johannisen should recover from an ankle injury ,although they appear to have moved beyond Alex Keath and Josh Schache, who were left off the emergency list against Hawthorn.
LAST TIME THEY MET: Western Bulldogs 11.12 (78) def by Fremantle 14.11 (95) at Marvel Stadium in round 21.
THE VERDICT: FREMANTLE by 11 points.
MCG blockbusters headline huge first week of finals
— Jon Ralph
Rampaging Collingwood has the chance to snap premiership favourite Geelong’s 13-game win streak after being handed a Saturday twilight qualifying final at their own MCG home ground.
The huge pulling power of the two clubs, and Geelong’s restricted capacity as GMHBA Stadium undergoes renovations, meant the Cats were never a chance for a game at their home ground.
But Collingwood’s latest astonishing comeback as they kicked the last five goals to beat Carlton by a single point in a phenomenal last day of the home-and-away season gives them a finals rails run.
Collingwood has won its past nine games at the MCG and have played 14 of 22 home-and-away games at the venue ahead of the 4.35pm Saturday clash.
Geelong has won four of its five games at the MCG this year – including a 13-point round 3 victory over the Pies – but have not played there since round 18.
In 2019, the Pies beat Geelong in an MCG qualifying final in front of 93,436 fans, with another massive crowd predicted.
Geelong chief executive Steve Hocking has pledged not to lobby the AFL on finals fixturing under his reign, but is hopeful when the stadium can host 40,000 fans the Cats might have a better chance.
Demons players had pledged to secure another Grand Final berth for fans who had to watch the 2021 Grand Final victory in Melbourne Covid lockdown and have the perfect chance after the weekend’s events.
Melbourne’s crushing victory over Brisbane, combined with Sydney’s modest 14-point win, means the Demons will not have to leave the MCG ahead of a Friday 7.50pm contest against the Swans.
The Demons will host a home preliminary final if they win, or a loss would see them at home against the Lions or Richmond before a potential week three preliminary final against Geelong or Collingwood.
Brisbane will take on Richmond in a Thursday night Gabba elimination final to kick off the finals at the same venue where the Tigers won the 2020 Grand Final, having lost that year’s qualifying final to the Lions there.
Sydney’s Friday night clash against the Demons will allow star forward Tom Papley to be available on the same day he clears the league’s 12-day concussion protocols.
And the Western Bulldogs will hope to kick-start a premiership charge in the same state as their 2016 premiership run after being scheduled for a Saturday night elimination final against Fremantle at 8.10pm (AEST).
More Coverage
Originally published as AFL Finals 2022: Full week 1 fixture and early preview
‘Got to grow up’: Ginni speaks amid Mitchell, Ken’s frosty silence
Sam Mitchell has reflected on the ugly end to his side’s semi-final loss during which Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley clashed with Hawks players.
Cats prelim preparations rocked as coach collapses at training
Chris Scott says Geelong is dealing with a “quite confronting” scenario after its preliminary final preparations were rocked when assistant coach Steven King collapsed at training.