AFL draft analysis: Veteran recruiter reveals who really won big at the draft
Collingwood nabbed five players early in the draft but a late selection could outshine them all early, according to one AFL recruiter.
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Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is a far better mark than idol Lance Franklin, but Collingwood has been declared the winner from Wednesday night’s marathon national draft.
An AFL recruiter who covered this year’s talent pool extensively has analysed every club for the Herald Sun, and backed No. 3 draft pick Will Phillips to one day captain North Melbourne.
The Kangaroos plumped for the blue-chip prospect with their prized selection and then paired Phillips with Tom Powell, another inside midfielder who boasted the best footy IQ in the draft.
On Ugle-Hagan, the recruiter said: “Ugle-Hagan is a much better mark than Buddy.
“This kid can catch it at the highest point, something that Buddy rarely does consistently.”
The Magpies entered draft night with an ordinary hand but struck six live trades to emerge with five players taken in the first 31 picks, while also accruing future picks to use on father-son Nick Daicos next year.
Hawthorn used its first top-10 pick in 14 years to take fullback Denver Grainger-Barras, who was tipped to challenge for next year’s Rising Star award despite opening a $34 outsider.
On Thursday the Herald Sun’s Sam Landsberger sat down with our secret scout who has spent the past 20 years helping clubs pick their stars.
Our man worked extensively on the 2020 draft by attending games across the country, poring over hours of vision and interviewing countless kids. Now he lifts the lid on how your club fared at the national draft.
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ADELAIDE
2. RILEY THILTHORPE 201cm, 100kg, Fwd/Ruck West Adelaide
11. LUKE PEDLAR 182cm, 82kg, Mid Glenelg
25. BRAYDEN COOK 188cm, 74kg, Fwd South Adelaide
28. SAM BERRY 181cm, 81kg, Mid Gippsland Power
38. JAMES ROWE 173cm, 73kg, Fwd Woodville-West Torrens
PRE-SEASON DRAFT: Jackson Hately
ROOKIE DRAFT: Bryce Gibbs
The recruiter: The bid on Jamarra at No. 1 was justified because not only was he the best player, but Adelaide had word the Bulldogs really liked 21-year-old James Rowe, and by bidding on Jamarra they took out the Bulldogs’ opportunity to take him before the Crows did at pick 38. I ranked ruck-forward Riley Thilthorpe at No. 3 and he’s a really impressive young man who will play AFL next year. After losing Brad Crouch they needed to improve their midfield and they’ve added Luke Pedlar, Sam Berry and Jackson Hately. They had to get Pedlar (pick 11) – a tough, hard inside mid – ahead of GWS and Freo. Adding James Borlase and Tariek Newchurch, a skilful forward who I rated in the top 30, as Category B rookies is a great result. They jumped ahead of Collingwood to take Brayden Cook and he’ll add a lot of X-factor. They’ve got Indigenous boys Isaiah Dudley and Blaine O’Laughlin in next year’s academy.
BRISBANE
24. BLAKE COLEMAN 181cm, 79kg, Fwd Brisbane Lions Academy
43. HARRY SHARP 180cm, 68kg, Mid GWV Rebels
48. HENRY SMITH 204cm, 96kg, Ruck Woodville-West Torrens
ROOKIE DRAFT: Grant Birchall
The recruiter: The Lions did their best work in trade period, securing Melbourne’s future first-round pick. They’ve come out on top from that deal by getting Blake Coleman and two first-round picks in next year’s really strong draft. Harry Sharp is an elite outside runner who has run the fastest 2km ever and, along with ruckman Henry Smith, is a development project. The Lions needed another developing tall under rucks Oscar McInerney and Archie Smith, and Smith provides that.
COLLINGWOOD
17. OLIVER HENRY 187cm, 77kg, Fwd Geelong Falcons
19. FINLAY MACRAE 186cm, 72kg, Mid/Fwd Oakleigh Chargers
23. REEF MCINNES 193cm, 86kg, Mid/Def Oakleigh Chargers
30. CALEB POULTER 191cm, 74kg, Mid Woodville-West Torrens
31. LIAM MCMAHON 196cm, 84kg, Northern Knights
44. BEAU McCREERY 186cm, 80kg South Adelaide
ROOKIE DRAFT: Isaac Chugg
The recruiter: The heat was on, and Collingwood has come out as the winner of the draft. They got four players in the top 20 of their rankings – Oli Henry (pick 17), Finlay Macrae (19), Reef McInnes (23) and Caleb Poulter (30). Henry was top-10 for a lot of clubs, Macrae and McInnes 10-15, and Poulter 15-25. Trading their future first-round pick to GWS was important with father-son Nick Daicos looking a top-five pick next year. They moved up and down the order in New England Patriots fashion and gathered future picks with some smart manoeuvring. Poulter is a left-footer who can really pierce the ball inside 50m and catch it overhead, and 19-year-old Beau McCreery will play straight away as a pressure forward. Liam McMahon is the 196cm key forward the list desperately needed. Given what they started the night with it is hard to go past the Pies.
CARLTON
37. COREY DURDIN 173cm, 73kg, Central Districts
41. JACK CARROLL 188cm, 78kg, East Fremantle
ROOKIE DRAFT: Luke Parks
The recruiter: I rated Jack Carroll in the top-20 and they got him at No. 41. He’s an uncapped inside midfielder who has a lot of Scott Pendlebury about him, very silky and smooth. Corey Durdin at No. 37, who they really rated as a small forward and has played senior SANFL footy the past two years, will help them from Round 1 and give Eddie Betts and Michael Gibbons a chop-out. Durdin’s running ability and defensive pressure stands out and he was the best player at the Under16 national carnival. I thought they could’ve looked at ruck support for Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning, and Sam Walsh’s brother Henry was available, but they didn’t take one. Overall, to add Adam Saad, Zac Williams and Lachie Fogarty, and to maintain their future first and second-round picks, plus top-20 talent Carroll, is a really successful combination.
ESSENDON
8. NIK COX 200cm, 87kg Key Fwd/Def Northern Knights
9. ARCHIE PERKINS 188cm 79kg Mid/Fwd Sandringham Dragons
10. ZACH REID 202cm, 83kg Def Gippsland Power
39. JOSH EYRE 197cm 85kg Fwd Calder Cannons
53. CODY BRAND 195cm 84kg Def Calder Cannons
ROOKIE DRAFT: Martin Gleeson, Dylan Clarke
The recruiter: Have they got the balance right over the past two years? They’ve now brought in eight talls overall – Peter Wright (203cm), Andrew Phillips (201cm), Nick Bryan (202cm), Harry Jones (194cm) and now Josh Eyre (197cm), Cody Brand (195cm), Zach Reid (202cm) and Nik Cox (200cm). I think that’s a couple too many and you don’t want to unbalance your list – that would be my slight criticism. They’re all talented and chances to make it, but maybe an extra midfielder like Tom Powell, Tanner Bruhn or Fin Macrae with Archie Perkins in that top-10 would’ve been ideal. Perkins is the tall inside midfielder they’ve been seeking, so maybe Powell and Macrae not being 185cm-plus deterred them a little bit. I rated Brand and Eyre inside the top 40, and maybe their strategy was to get talls now because 2021 is looking like a midfield draft. The Bulldogs bid on Brand at No. 53, keeping Essendon accountable. Maybe that was a bit of Josh Dunkley payback.
FREMANTLE
14. HEATH CHAPMAN 193cm 81kg Def West Perth
27. NATHAN O’DRISCOLL 187cm 78kg Mid/Def Perth
50. BRANDON WALKER 183cm 75kg, Def East Fremantle
54. JOEL WESTERN 171cm 64kg, Mid Claremont
ROOKIE DRAFT: Josh Treacy, Bailey Banfield
The recruiter: They took all WA kids for the first time in a long time. They traded back in to get Nathan O’Driscoll once they realised Brayden Walker was sliding down the board, which was a smart move. To get Joel Western and Walker in the 50s was good business. They didn’t address the need for a key forward, but there weren’t many in this draft pool, and they took Josh Treacy as a rookie. Heath Chapman (pick 14) helps provide security for key backs Griffin Logue, Joel Hamling and Alex Pearce, who have consistently been injured for the last two years. Does that allow Brennan Cox to go forward?
GEELONG
20. MAX HOLMES 189cm 74kg Mid Sandringham Dragons
33. SHANNON NEALE 202cm 91kg Ruck South Fremantle
47. NICK STEVENS 192cm 84kg Def GWV Rebels
The recruiter: They traded their future first-round pick to get Max Holmes, wanting to get in front of Melbourne. They’ve got three future second-round picks, which is collateral to get back into the first round next year. Holmes has elite speed, big ruckman Shannon Neale is a really great athlete, while Nick Stevens has a lot of power. Traditionally they’ve been about footy smarts but their theme this year was elite athletes. They’ve got three guys in – Isaac Smith, Shaun Higgins and Jeremy Cameron – who can help them immediately, a top-20 pick in Holmes, and last year they added two top-20 picks in Cooper Stephens and Sam De Koning. They’re really building for the now and the future. Holmes came at a high price, but they probably see a lot of elite breakaway speed and the ability to get out of traffic. He’s got genuine smarts and they would hope he can become an inside midfielder with stoppage explosion like a Luke Shuey or Patrick Dangerfield type. He’s so raw, only playing the one trial game this year and one game last year at NAB League level, but he’s got something elite – which is that speed. In the Grand Final and a few other games the Cats were shown up for speed, so you can see why they targeted a guy like that.
GOLD COAST
7. ELIJAH HOLLANDS 189cm 80kg Fwd/Mid Murray Bushrangers
ROOKIE DRAFT: Jacob Townsend, Jack Hombsch, Jordan Murdoch, Aiden Fyfe, Ryan Nicholls
The recruiter: The rich get richer – Ellijah Hollands at No. 7 was a bargain pick. I had him in the top three and without the ACL injury he probably would’ve gone No.1. He’s got real class and explosion and speed, and then they got Alex Davies and Joel Jeffrey – two more top-20 talents – as freebies as part of their academy. So that’s another three top-20 talents for this group. Davies is also a bit like Pendlebury as an inside midfielder with classy hands and that basketball movement. Oleg Markov helps them straight away with speed off halfback, which is what they wanted, and Rory Atkins goes on a wing. Importantly, they’re building a great group of characters, too – Hollands and Davies are elite – and next year they’ve already got four top-50 picks.
GWS GIANTS
12. TANNER BRUHN 182cm 75kg Mid Geelong Falcons
15. CONOR STONE 188cm 82kg Fwd Oakleigh Chargers
18. RYAN ANGWIN 184cm 72kg Mid Gippsland Power
58. CAM FLEETON 192cm 85kg Def Geelong Falcons
59. JACOB WEHR 184cm 71kg Def Woodville West-Torrens
ROOKIE DRAFT: Sam Reid, Zach Sproule
The recruiter: They had a lot of players to replace in their best 25 and they’ve added Tanner Bruhn, who was a justified pick 12, and then a couple of speculative picks in Connor Stone and Ryan Angwin, who went earlier than most expected, and a couple of late picks to help their backline in Cameron Fleeton and Jacob Wehr. In terms of improving the list they probably haven’t immediately, but the best thing they did was trade for Collingwood’s future first-round pick. They’ve added foot skills with Angwin, Wehr and Bruhn – they can all really kick the ball – and they’ve got some speed and run.
HAWTHORN
6. DENVER GRAINGER-BARRAS 194 cm, 78kg, Def Swan Districts
29. SEAMUS MITCHELL 182cm, 72kg, Mid/Fwd Bendigo Pioneers
35. CONNOR DOWNIE 186cm, 81kg, Mid/Def Eastern Ranges
46. TYLER BROCKMAN 180cm, 80kg Fwd/Mid Subiaco
ROOKIE DRAFT: Jack Saunders
The recruiter:Ben Stratton and James Frawley leave and they bring in a young defender in Denver Grainger-Barras at pick No. 5 who can play straight away. He just needs to add a bit of size to play on the monsters, but at the moment he can play on the mediums and third talls. Isaac Smith leaves and they bring in Tom Phillips (Collingwood) and Connor Downie, who slipped down to No. 35, so they’ve got the older and younger replacement. Two years in a row North Melbourne has bid on a Hawthorn-connected player – Finn Maginness last year and now Downie – so a bit of byplay there. Paul Puopolo leaves and the Hawks add two really, exciting X-factor forwards in Seamus Mitchell and Tyler Brockman. There’s a slight concern on Mitchell’s knee while Brockman is former Fremantle and Gold Coast player Greg Broughton’s nephew. There’s a bit of Dylan Grimes about Grainger-Barras, who beat No. 4 pick Logan McDonald in the key match-up this year. He’s got good closing speed but needs to put weight on, improve his running and touch up his kicking – but I think he’ll play Round 1, and he’s a real good shot for the Rising Star.
MELBOURNE
21. JAKE BOWEY 180cm, 78kg Mid Sandringham
22. BAILEY LAURIE 180CM, 75kg Fwd/Mid Oakleigh Chargers
34. FRASER ROSMAN 193cm 86kg Fwd/Mid Sandringham Dragons
The recruiter: Full-forward Ben Brown comes in and Melbourne uses its first two picks on two smart, speedy and great kicks of the ball in Jake Bowey and Bailey Laurie at picks 21 and 22. I think they’ll play straight away and help with the forward connection going inside 50m that has long troubled the Demons and they’ll help Ben be more successful in that line-up. Particularly Jake, he can carry the ball, cut angles and hit targets at speed. Their third pick, Fraser Rosman, was a speculative type. He’s got great endurance and size but very raw and there were a few question marks.
NORTH MELBOURNE
3. WILL PHILLIPS 181cm, 79kg Mid Oakleigh Chargers
13. TOM POWELL 180cm, 70kg Mid Sturt
36. CHARLIE LAZZARO 179cm, 72kg Mid Geelong Falcons
42. PHOENIX SPICER 173cm, 63kg Mid/Fwd South Adelaide
56. EDDIE FORD 188cm, 79kg Fwd Western Jets
ROOKIE DRAFT: Patrick Walker, Connor Menadue
The recruiter: No. 3 pick Will Phillips went a few spots higher than expected, but due to his production – particularly in last year’s NAB League finals – and his potential to be an AFL captain I think North invested in the character more so than the talent. The inside midfielder’s kicking needs to improve, so he’s going to be a death by a thousand cuts accumulator with great workrate and hands out of stoppage, rather than really damaging by foot. He can run and carry the ball, which will help him, but he’s under 180cm and not the best kick so there are some challenges – but you know what you’re going to get every single game. He’s a soldier, he’s going to lead you on and off the field and so it’s a bit of a trade-off to get someone like Will in the door. I thought McDonald, Grainger-Barass and Hollands were better options, but can certainly understand why they did it. I liked all their picks and they hit a number of key list needs in terms of speed and movement.
PORT ADELAIDE
16. LACHLAN JONES 184cm, 87kg, Def Woodville-West Torrens
49. OLLIE LORD 195cm, 84kg Fwd Sandringham Dragons
ROOKIE DRAFT: Tyson Goldsack, Taj Schofield
The recruiter:Academy star Lachie Jones (pick 16) slipping six or seven spots from where he should’ve been bid on helped them get key forward Ollie Lord, and then father-son Taj Schofield as a rookie instead of having to draft him. They needed another key forward to add to Dixon, Marshall and Georgiades, so that really helped them. Jones will play Round 1 and they’ve got Jase Burgoyne, Peter’s son, as a father-son next year who looks like a first-rounder. Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia help them challenge now and they’re well-placed for the future.
RICHMOND
40. SAMSON RYAN 203cm, 96kg Lions Academy/Sherwood (QAFL)
51. MAURICE RIOLI JNR 176cm, 81kg, St Marys/Oakleigh Chargers
The recruiter:I had real doubts on Maurice Rioli Jr three years ago, but he’s improving his body shape and he does Rioli-type things with the step-through and the miraculous goal and he can take a grab in the air as well. It’s just the professional things like running he needs to work on, but the raw talent and X-factor is there and his NTFL footy against men at the start of the year was really impressive. His cousin (Daniel) is going to really help him and the Tigers probably needed someone to replace Jack Higgins on their depth chart. They really rate the youth they’ve already got, with Riley Collier-Dawkins, Callum Coleman-Jones, Jack Ross and Will Martyn, and they want to give those guys opportunities next year, which was probably in their thinking to almost skip this draft. But they’ve got a real focus on next year’s draft, with four picks in the first two rounds. Massive ruckman Samson Ryan is 208cm and could play pretty soon I think, even though he was more a rookie player taken in the national draft. It fits with Ivan Soldo coming back from an ACL.
ST KILDA
26. MATTHEW ALLISON 194cm, 81kg, Calder Cannons
45. TOM HIGHMORE 192cm, 81kg, South Adelaide
The recruiter: Looking at their depth chart they definitely needed a key forward, so taking Matthew Allison really helps them. There weren’t many talls after the top 10, so to stay at pick 26 and take Allison made sense as a strategy. I think they deliberately took mature-age defender Tom Highmore (pick 45) right before Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane’s picks. Maybe they didn’t want potential finals combatants, particularly Geelong, getting a guy like Highmore who can come in and play straight away. The Cats took Nick Stevens, who is very similar as a third defender. The question is how much youth has St Kilda got now? It’s probably at a tipping point where they need to get back into a draft in the next two years. Even though Max King, Nick Coffield and Hunter Clark are really talented kids, they’re towards the older bracket now, so they’ve got to be mindful of that. You look at James Frawley, Paddy Ryder, Jake Carlisle, Jarryn Geary and Dan Hannebery, there’s going to be some big holes in the future if they don’t attack the draft.
SYDNEY
4. LOGAN MCDONALD 196cm, 85kg, Fwd West Perth
5. BRAEDEN CAMPBELL 180cm, 73kg, Mid Syd Academy (matched bid)
32. ERROL GULDEN 176cm, 71kg, Mid Syd Academy (matched bid)
ROOKIE DRAFT: Malachy Caruthers
The recruiter: Key forward Logan McDonald’s not your big, competitive beast – he lacks a bit of strength in his core base at the moment – so he’s more an endurance forward. Sydney’s ball movement was quicker last season, and that will help him work into space, whereas the old-school Sydney, slow and stoppage, wouldn’t help him. He’s like Jack Riewoldt at the moment because Jack isn’t a big, strong man, but he uses his body, he can run, move across the ground and get into space. McDonald was a great piece to add to the young group of James Rowbottom, Dylan Stephens, Justin McInerney, Nick Blakey, Will Hayward, Will Gould and now Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, who was a steal at No. 32. They’ve still got Papley and Parker and Lloyd and Rampe and Mills and Heeney. In my eyes they got two of the top six in McDonald and Campbell and two of the top 20 last year in Stephens and Gould. They’ve got the best group of kids in the AFL and look on track for a premiership in the next three to five years. They’re building towards something pretty special.
WEST COAST
52. LUKE EDWARDS 187cm, 78kg, Mid/def Glenelg
57. ISIAH WINDER 180cm, 79kg, Mid Peel Thunder
ROOKIE DRAFT: Zane Trew, Daniel Venables
The recruiter: Luke Edwards, son of dual premiership Crow Tyson, looked one of the better players in the country at 16. His game has stalled a bit, but he’s going to a great program and they’ll probably rejig him. Edwards had some great games for South Australia at halfback last year, against the likes of Elijah Hollands, and was an elite performer at under-15s and 16s. At pick 52 they’ve got a bit of a bargain if they can realign him, so I think it was a really smart pick up. They also took Isiah Winder out of Bunbury, a really talented Indigenous boy with nice foot skills. He needs to lift his workrate and running, but he’s got some X-factor and played some WAFL footy for Peel. A few coaches at the AFL academy really liked what they saw from him. The Tim Kelly trade really kept them out of this draft, but they have loaded up with three picks in the top 40 next year.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
1. JAMARRA UGLE-HAGAN 196cm, 85kg, Fwd Oakleigh Chargers
55. DOMINIC BEDENDO 188cm, 74kg, Mid Murray Bushrangers
ROOKIE DRAFT: Lachlan McNeil, Roarke Smith
The recruiter: Buddy Franklin is the comparison, but No. 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is a much better mark than Buddy. This kid can catch it at the highest point, something that Buddy rarely does consistently. This kid can go back as well and might get early games in defence, like a Jack Lukosius. But the three-pronged forward line of Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton and Josh Bruce, if Bruce can find his feet, looks pretty dangerous. Adding Stefan Martin, Adam Treloar and Mitch Hannan helps them straight away, too. They’ve really improved the list. If you look at their checklist – keep Dunkley, get Treloar, get Martin for ruck support, keep your future first, add three players to help you straight away and get the No. 1 pick – it’s tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.
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Originally published as AFL draft analysis: Veteran recruiter reveals who really won big at the draft
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