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AFL 2021: The science behind the league’s best and worst goalkickers

The complex art of goalkicking continues to mesmerise the masses. Take Lance Franklin’s famous arc. Why does it work when other more orthodox techniques don’t? Check out this year’s best and worst.

Max King hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in front of goal.
Max King hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in front of goal.

Jason Dunstall tried to eliminate Lance Franklin’s arc.

Franklin was only 21 and already a budding superstar of the game when Hawthorn’s greatest-ever spearhead tried to give “Buddy” a few tips on his goal kicking technique back in 2008.

Except for the fact that it sensationally backfired.

Instead of that now famous sweeping bend out to the left in his goal kicking run-up, Dunstall wanted Franklin to ditch his trademark and straighten-up in a more text book fashion.

But as former Hawthorn sharpshooter and specialist goal kicking coach Ben Dixon remembers it, Franklin didn’t want to have a bar of Dunstall’s advice that day at Waverley.

“Jason came down in 2008 and was doing some goal kicking with myself, Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead and Buddy Franklin and Jason said to him (Franklin) ‘Your arc is out of control’,” Dixon said.

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Lance Franklin’s sweeping left-hand curve might not be the most orthodox but does it matter when you have slotted 957 goals in a stunning career?
Lance Franklin’s sweeping left-hand curve might not be the most orthodox but does it matter when you have slotted 957 goals in a stunning career?

“So Jason took these agility poles out and got ‘Buddy’ to run though it on his set shot run-up and his first kick came right off his shin.

“Jason said ‘Have another go’ but on Buddy’s next kick he actually had an air swing. I’m not kidding, Buddy, seriously, missed the ball.

“It was just so unnatural to him to run straight like that. I laughed my guts out. Lance Franklin took an air swing, after kicking 73 goals the year before (in 2007) and then he cracked it.

“I said to Buddy ‘What’s wrong with you?’

“He said ‘That bloke’, and he didn’t mention his (Dunstall’s) name. He just said ‘That bloke over there doesn’t want me to break his goal kicking record (1254 majors).

“And then Buddy just walked off.”

History will show Franklin’s arc has worked out all right as the former Hawthorn and Sydney Swans’ champion spearhead has slotted 957 goals on the path to become one of the game’s greatest goal kickers.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has been outstanding for the Bombers up front this year.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has been outstanding for the Bombers up front this year.

Even this year, after a hugely-interrupted past two seasons, Franklin is third on the goal kicking charts for expected set shot accuracy, according to Champion Data.

Dixon is unsurprised Franklin remains a deadeye despite his somewhat unorthodox approach, for there is an element of technical genius in that vast sweeping left-hand curve in Franklin’s run-up that goes largely unnoticed.

“If you have a big arc in your run-up like that you need to have your hips square to the goals at the point of impact,” Dixon said.

“And if you watch Buddy, he will arc out and then at the point of impact his hips are always square. They are always square to goal, every time.”

In the same way, Dixon celebrated Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti’s precision and reliability on goal this year, in particular for the Bomber’s compact, smooth-as-silk-action, and cool-heatedness.

McDonald-Tipungwuti is this year’s sharpest shooter, considering the difficulty, distance and angle of his attempts, according to the AFL’s best number-crunchers.

Dixon calls McDonald-Tipungwuti ‘The Natural’.

Joe Daniher hasn’t been setting the world alight in front of goal with the Lions
Joe Daniher hasn’t been setting the world alight in front of goal with the Lions
Max King’s performance against Geelong can only be called the night from hell.
Max King’s performance against Geelong can only be called the night from hell.

“A lot of people think with goal kicking that you’ve got to stand up straight, and that you’ve got to keep your arms rigid, but when you do that your body tenses up,” Dixon said.

“Players almost change the way they kick for a set shot, and you see it all the time.

“If you assess a player’s field kick and then their set shot and you compare the impact and action in the technique sometimes they can be totally different, because they’re overplaying the set shot.

“The big difference with McDonald-Tipungwuti is if you watch his field kicking and then his goal kicking it is exactly the same because he is relaxed and he is confident in what he does and he really reduces the distance of his ball drop from hand to foot.

Taylor Walker has rediscovered his accuracy in front of goal for the Crows.
Taylor Walker has rediscovered his accuracy in front of goal for the Crows.

“The room for error in his technique is so minimal.

“It is such a smooth, relaxed and natural action, so it is no surprise to see him top the accuracy stats.”

On the other hand, Melbourne’s Christian Petracca is one, Dixon said, who adopts a different kick technique for his set shot, straightening his arms and tensing-up his upper body.

Subsequently the release point for his ball drop is significantly higher than his mostly exquisite field kick.

Superstar Melbourne captain Max Gawn has a different problem. Gawn drops his left arm alongside his body for his right-foot kick, and then loses balance by leaning to his left.

Dixon two years ago urged Gawn to stretch out his left arm at the point of impact, helping keep the giant more upright in his kick.

Christian Petracca is a superb field kick but changes his routine when taking a set shot.
Christian Petracca is a superb field kick but changes his routine when taking a set shot.

Brisbane spearhead Joe Daniher, who battled poor kicking in his time at Essendon, has a quirk where he turns the footy in his hand.

Players still seek feedback from Dixon on their technique on an irregular basis but big cuts in footy departments’ soft caps have hampered their ability to appoint specialist coaches.

But one or two sessions can help troubleshoot to fix payers’ techniques.

St Kilda colt spearhead Max King endured a night from hell in the accuracy stakes kicking 1.5 in the wasteful loss to Geelong.

Dixon, who spent two years as the Saints’ goal kicking coach in between 2018-19, said it was clear what was wrong with King’s routine.

“Max King the other night, if you watch his last set shot he just really rushed it. You could see he just wanted to get it over and done with,” Dixon said.

“He’s actually hopping on his kick at the moment. It’s almost like he is on a pogo stick.

“When he kicks well he comes through the ball with a bit of momentum like all the big guys need to, but if you watch him he is king like he is on a pogo stick towards the end of his routine. He goes up and down.

“If you are popping on your kick like that, you are not kicking through it.

“You are leaning back and as soon as you lean back what happens is your arm comes up higher and there is more room for error in terms of impact on your foot.”

Top-10 set shot accuracy above expectation

Player set shotsExpected accuracyActual accuracyDifference
A. McDonald-Tipungwuti1260.9%83.3%+22.5%
Tom McDonald1546.9%66.7%+19.8%
Lance Franklin1350.6%69.2%+18.7%
Josh Bruce`2658.9%76.9%+18.1%
Taylor Walker2652.4%69.2%+16.8%
Bayley Fritsch1850.0%66.7%+16.7%
Josh J. Kennedy2146.0%61.9%+15.9%
Lincoln McCarthy1054.9%70.0%+15.1%
Robbie Gray1047.4%60.0%+12.6%
Gary Rohan1452.4%64.3%+11.9%

Bottom-10 set shot accuracy above expectation

PlayerSet shotsExpected accuracyActual accuracyDifference
Christian Petracca 1048.5%20.0%-28.5%
Rory Lobb1039.2%20.0%-19.2%
Tim Membrey2151.3%33.3%-18.0%
Tom J. Lynch2252.5%36.4%-16.2%
Joe Daniher1750.4%35.3%-15.1%
Max King2654.7%42.3%-12.4%
Levi Casboult1048.6%40.0%-8.6%
Charlie Dixon1960.2%52.6%-7.5%
Jacob Koschitzke1560.2%53.5%-6.9%
Tim English1455.1%50.0%-5.1%


** Qualification is at least 10 set shots this season. All stats at the end of Round 9.

Originally published as AFL 2021: The science behind the league’s best and worst goalkickers

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Original URL: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/news/afl-2021-the-science-behind-the-leagues-best-and-worst-goalkickers/news-story/eca0152fca006dabb5fcda639acae856