AFL 2021 Port Adelaide v Geelong: The stats behind the Power’s struggle against top-eight sides
A number of key stats are letting Port Adelaide down against the best sides this year. And there are some individuals failing to deliver, too.
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It took until last year’s preliminary final for Port Adelaide to register its fourth loss of the season.
The Power has that same number after 12 matches this campaign and all the defeats have been to top-eight sides, the latest being Geelong by 21 points at home on Thursday night.
So where is Port Adelaide falling down in those losses?
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Turnovers
Coughing the ball up to the opposition has been a major issue for Ken Hinkley’s side against the best teams this year.
It is conceding 10 goals per game from turnovers in its losses – 63.0 points per game to be precise – compared to just 37.5 (or six majors) in its wins.
The Power had 65 turnovers against the Cats, who were able to slice open up the hosts at times with decisive counter-attacks.
“It’s really difficult when some of the opening up comes from your own issues and that was some of our own turnover and then some of our contest in front of the footy,” Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley said.
“If you lose what you consider pretty clear looking like you’re going to win balls, it’s easy to get caught off-side.
“Geelong are as good as anyone when it comes to the counter-attack.
“They can get out the back really quickly.
“We caused ourselves some problems.”
Stoppages
Port Adelaide won centre clearances 16-14 against the Cats and total clearances were 38 apiece, but the visitors were able to score quickly from several key stoppages, including in the last quarter.
The Power is conceding 37.2 points per game from stoppages in losses this year, compared to 22.1 in its wins.
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“When it did come out of the centre bounce, unfortunately, they were able to run it in for a goal or take a mark down forward,” Connor Rozee told The Advertiser.
“It obviously starts in the middle and we lost a few crucial centre bounces.
“Unfortunately, when the game and momentum is against us, we can’t quite seem to stop that momentum and put in those defensive actions that we were so good at last year.
“It’s just about getting back to that and we know that offensive stuff will come.
“Once they got going, we couldn’t stop them.
Hinkley said: “Momentum swings in the game always happen and they tend to happen from centre bounce in today’s game”.
Although clearances were even against the Cats, Port Adelaide lost that statistic in its other three losses.
It trailed by 14 against West Coast in its 37-point Round 3 loss, three to Brisbane in its Round 7 defeat and six versus the Western Bulldogs in its 19-point Round 9 disappointment.
Overall, the Power’s clearance differential in wins is +3.2 and it is -5.8 in losses.
Up-and-down players
The difference between some Power players’ form in their wins to their losses is stark.
Sam Powell-Pepper is averaging 34.4 fewer rankings in the three defeats he has played compared to the three victories – 63.0 to 97.4.
Orazio Fantasia (-28.8), Steven Motlop (-25.4), Ryan Burton (-24.8) and Peter Ladhams (-21.7) are others whose influences have been quelled when Port Adelaide has not won in 2021.
Powell-Pepper, who was impressive in the Power’s two games before the bye, registered just eight touches against the Cats, Motlop gathered only nine and Burton had limited influence.
Fantasia was out with a knee injury.
Supply
Port Adelaide’s inside 50 differential in wins this year is +6.1 and it is -6.2 in losses.
That shows that the Power is not getting as many scoring opportunities as the top sides it has fallen to.
West Coast smacked Port Adelaide 57-40 in inside 50s, while the Bulldogs had four more in their victory.
On Thursday night, Geelong won the inside-50 count 52-45.
“We didn’t make enough of our opportunities and we didn’t get as many opportunities as they got,” Hinkley said after the Cats loss.
Rozee said once Geelong got the ball in its front half “ they locked it in and they were able to create score from it”.
The Power is expected to beat Gold Coast away next game and then Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium in Round 16.
But in between those clashes are tricky matches against two more top-eight sides: Sydney and Melbourne, both at home.
Can the Power turn around its form in those crunch games?
Hinkley said his team was not quite good enough against the best opponents right now.
Rozee believed Port Adelaide was still positioned well and not far off beating the top teams.
“I don’t think it’s a major shift we need to make,” he said.
“It’s only a small shift defensively we think we need to make and hopefully we can do that in the second half of the season.
“There’s probably just a few crucial contests that can swing the game either way and we haven’t been on the right end of those so far.
“I think we’re still positioned in a pretty strong spot on the table and in general going into the second half of the season.
“We knew tonight was going to be a crucial game – almost an eight-point game – so it’s unfortunate we couldn’t get across the line.
“But every game is going to be important from now on, especially against those top-eight teams.
“We’re still in the eight and I don’t think there’s anything to be too worried about – there’s a long way to go.”
Does latest loss prove Port isn’t a true contender?
Ken Hinkley’s faith in Port Adelaide’s premiership potential remains unshaken despite his side’s latest loss to a flag contender.
The Power took an entertaining contest right up to Geelong at Adelaide Oval, leading by nine points early in the final term, but couldn’t hold off a late rally to go down by 21 points.
It’s the latest query about the validity of Port’s premiership credentials on the back of losses to heavy hitters the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and West Coast.
“It’s the same information: we’re good but we’re not good enough against the best teams in the competition,” Hinkley said.
“We’re not going to hide from that.
“Right now, we’re not good enough against them. We’re good enough to challenge them and get really close.
“Right here and now, we’re just a little bit off those teams. It doesn’t mean we’ll be off them at the end but we’re off them at the moment.”
Hinkley lamented patches of play where the Cats were able to wrest the momentum, including a pivotal late rally where the Power conceded five unanswered goals.
Port slipped to an 8-4 record on the back of the loss, but Hinkley is adamant that wins against teams higher up the ladder aren’t far away.
“We’re in those games, we’re right in them,” he said.
“We’re giving ourselves a great chance (to win).
“We get nine points up in the last quarter so you know you’re good enough when it’s that late in the game that you can actually compete with them but if you don’t do it for 120 minutes against the very best teams that’s when you’ll come up short.
“Right now we’re coming up short but we know that we’re capable. We know that we’re good enough when we get it right but the challenge is to get it right for longer periods.
“It will be two or three minutes in our favour and not theirs and that will turn a game like this.”
Hinkley confirmed Todd Marshall, who was subbed out in the first quarter after a head knock, will miss next week’s clash against Gold Coast as he enters the league’s concussion protocol.
MATCH REPORT: Cameron showstopper sinks Power
- Jason Phelan
Five goals to Jeremy Cameron has propelled Geelong to a hard-fought 21-point win in a pulsating clash of premiership contenders.
The star-studded sides traded blows in a highly entertaining bout of premiership heavyweights on Thursday night, and the Cats were the last side standing to claim a 17.10 (112) to 14.7 (91) win at Adelaide Oval.
Charlie Dixon kicked two of his four goals and Connor Rozee his fifth as the Power surged from 10 points down to take the lead early in the final term, but as they had so often, the Cats held their nerve and hit back.
Cameron rattled home three goals in a match-turning 10-minute period, with Tom Hawkins landing the knockout blow with his fourth.
In an enthralling clash of styles, the Power’s fast-paced, free-flowing footy held sway for periods, while on other occasions the patient Cats were able to take the sting out of the game.
In a seesawing first half, Port led by four points and as much as 21 before Geelong rallied to a three-point halftime lead.
Tom Stewart starred across halfback for the visitors, who had 20 contested marks to five late in the game.
Ollie Wines continued his fine season for Port and Travis Boak worked through a hard tag by Mark O’Connor to be a key contributor.
RAZZLE DAZZLE ROZEE
Pressure mounted on Rozee as he went goalless in three games before the bye, but the star youngster repaid coach Ken Hinkley’s faith in spades in the first quarter alone. He was standing in the right spot when he was handed a concussed Todd Marshall’s free kick for his first goal of the night, but his next three majors in the space of five minutes were right from the top shelf.
WISE OLD CATS
Rozee slipped a brilliant handball to Kane Farrell who slotted a goal-of-the-year contender as the Power raced to a 21-point lead in the second quarter. In a VFL/AFL first, Geelong’s side contained 10 players 30-years-old or older and that experience served them well as they soaked up the pressure and hit back. Hawkins booted his third as the visitors booted the last four goals of the half to lead by three points at the main break.
CATS PRESS
It was Port’s turn to soak up pressure in the third quarter, but Geelong cruelled their chances with poor kicking for goal seeing them boot three behinds in succession from gettable positions. But Gary Rohan bobbed up for two late goals to put his side up by 10 points at the last break.
SCOREBOARD
POWER 5.1 8.2 10.4 14.7 91
CATS 4.3 8.5 11.8 17.10 112
PHELAN’S BEST
Power: Wines, Rozee, Boak, Gray, Amon, Houston.
Cats: Cameron, Stewart, Duncan, Blicavs, Hawkins, Smith.
GOALS
Power: Rozee 5, Dixon 4, Wines, Powell-Pepper, Georgiades, Farrell, Jones.
Cats: Cameron 5, Hawkins 4, Rohan 3, Parfitt 2, Smith, Duncan, Henderson.
INJURIES
Power: Marshall (head knock).
Cats: Nil.
UMPIRES
Donlon, Dalgleish, Howorth.
VENUE
Adelaide Oval 28,780
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
JASON PHELAN’S VOTES
3 J. Cameron (Geel)
2 O. Wines (PA)
1 T. Stewart (Geel)
Marshall loss adds to Port’s woes
- Matt Turner
Forward Todd Marshall is set to miss Port Adelaide’s next game with concussion after being substituted from the home loss to Geelong.
The 22-year-old came off the ground six minutes into the first quarter when he received incidental contact to his face from Cats defender Lachie Henderson during a marking contest in the Power’s attacking 50.
Marshall appeared dazed as soon as he was struck and was unable to take the kick as trainers assisted him from the field.
Doctors assessed him on the bench, as well as vision of the incident, before Marshall went into the change rooms.
He was substituted out and replaced by small forward Boyd Woodcock with about five minutes remaining in the opening term.
Under the AFL’s concussion protocols, Marshall will be sidelined for at least 12 days.
He will miss Port Adelaide’s clash with Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium next Saturday.
When the incident happened, Channel 7 commentator Jobe Watson said: “Henderson clipped him on the way through there”.
Co-commentator Jason Bennett added: “He got him flush”.
Luke Darcy said Marshall “looked dazed and he generally was unsure where he was”.
Henderson will come under scrutiny from the Match Review Officer for the incident but it is difficult to know if he will be suspended.
The league is cracking down on head knocks, even if incidental, and there is more expectation on players to show a duty of care, particularly with tackles.
Marshall being concussed and substituted from the game does not help Henderson’s chances of avoiding a ban.
But the veteran Geelong defender had his eyes on the ball and looked set to take the mark, if not for Jack Henry swooping in front of him to claim it instead.
Henderson’s contact with Marshall seemed accidental.
“I don’t think his intention was to block,” Watson said.
Bennett added: “His eyes appeared to be on the footy the whole way”.
The umpire paid a free kick to Marshall against Henderson for blocking the Power forward.
Marshall was unable to take the free kick, about 35m from goal, because of his head knock.
Instead, Connor Rozee had it and booted the Power’s opening major.
It was the first of four for the quarter from Rozee, who got off to a hot start to help the hosts lead 5.1 to 4.3 at quarter-time.
Marshall was yet to register a statistic when he was substituted from the game.
Thursday night was his 10th match for the season.
He missed the Power’s Round 2 clash with Essendon due to a back injury then was out against Richmond in Round 4 because of an ankle issue.
Port Adelaide has an obvious replacement for Marshall — ruckman Scott Lycett.
Lycett has missed the past four games due to suspension stemming from his tackle on Crow Ned McHenry in the Round 8 Showdown.
Cats midfielder Brandan Parfitt’s tackle on Kane Farrell during the last quarter is also certain to be scrutinised by the MRO.
The umpire paid a free kick against Parfitt for the tackle and Farrell came off sore soon after.
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