AFL 2021: Mick Malthouse analyses AFL ladder, gap between premiership contenders and rest
Mick Malthouse says Essendon is the only team outside the top-eight capable of mounting a finals push — and has named side most likely to fall out.
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The great divide. It’s an issue every year for the AFL, none more so than this year.
At just over the halfway mark, seven teams have already secured their spot in the eight.
The final position will be fought out between Sydney and Essendon.
After that the gap is immense. The question is, why?
The final eight of the previous year is, in general, very hard to dislodge. So far two sides have fallen out — St Kilda and Collingwood — with Melbourne and Sydney moving in.
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Few doubted the credentials of the Tigers, Dogs, Cats, Lions, Port, and the Eagles.
They are well run clubs, with strong and powerful coaches, great depth, and each club boasts match winners who are consistent performers.
More than that, they have a constant supply of new players entering their clubs and performing instantly. Like the rejuvenation of a plant after a good prune.
Once you have a strong, established list then you can keep adding to it to refresh and rejuvenate. Just look at Richmond.
They recruit and draft players to complement the group. To add to it directly. Then young players too blend in with the established senior list with ease.
WHAT SETS THE TOP EIGHT APART
I discussed St Kilda a few weeks ago. In comparison its recruiting has added players of no value to the overall structure. There’s a big difference.
Marcus Bontempelli has been remarkable for the Bulldogs this year, and the recruitment of Adam Treloar and Stefan Martin has increased the likelihood of the Dogs finishing in the top four. Younger players Bailey Smith, Bailey Dale, Aaron Naughton and Tim English are really starting to come into their own.
The Tigers never disappoint with exciting players. Tom Lynch out, up steps Callum Coleman-Jones. Alex Rance gone, in comes Noah Balta.
Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins, new to Geelong, have added enough ability to make them premiership favourites. A performing Mitch Duncan is a premier midfielder of the competition, then up jumps Cam Guthrie into Brownlow contention, boosting a stacked Cats’ midfield.
Joe Daniher has increased the strike power of the Brisbane Lions.
Aliir Aliir has helped with Port Adelaide’s short backline.
And West Coast just keeps producing young and exciting players to compliment the experienced ones.
We will continue to question Melbourne, especially after last weekend’s loss to Collingwood. However, until then they were a model of consistency. Recruit Steven May has developed a new fitness level which has taken his game to new heights.
Young Luke Jackson has imposed himself alongside Max Gawn. And Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver continue to be magnificent on their days.
It is a good challenge for Melbourne to see if it is a strong organisation from the top to the bottom. It’s last premiership was 1964. It doesn’t have to win the premiership this year to be rated as a top side, but it must be consistently good throughout the year, and the finals, to be considered so.
Sydney is in a delicate situation, but given the weakness of the clubs outside the eight it may make it by default. It is not a great side, but it has a great coach. An over reliance on Lance Franklin may be the Swans downfall, but it’s for them to miss the eight more so than others making it.
The Swans at least have beaten Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, and only lost by nine to Melbourne, which is better that Port Adelaide currently.
For all its hype Port Adelaide has only beaten one team in the eight (Richmond in Round 2,) but it is getting away with daylight robbery because the bottom teams are so far off the pace.
If Sydney can reproduce its early form against the heavyweights in the coming weeks, it will slam the door on teams outside the eight.
WHY THE BOMBERS ARE FINALS CONTENDERS
That includes the best team outside the top eight, Essendon, with only five wins after 12 rounds. Right now they seem capable of only challenging sides in the eight, without taking the points.
As exciting as they are to watch, the Bombers must beat teams above them to accelerate their growth.
But it was always going to take time. New coach, new methods. At times they have been absolutely scintillating.
Darcy Parish has grown as a player. Sam Draper back in will help them, and also Dylan Shiel. Zach Merrett could be in line for a Brownlow. Nik Cox, Jayden Laverde, and Archie Perkins make it a good mix of senior and youthful talent. An exciting brand and exciting players, they are the only team that could take Sydney’s place in the eight. But that’s a big maybe.
Round 15 will be Essendon’s greatest opportunity to demonstrate that they are a legitimate final eight team if they can beat Melbourne. Round 16 against the Cats will have them sorted out.
This is where the sink hole appears.
You’d like the eight to be unpredictable, but the predictability remains.
WHAT SHOULD YOU MAKE OF THE REST?
When was the last time North Melbourne or Fremantle played finals? Gold Coast hasn’t ever. Carlton not since 2013. St Kilda played its first final in nine seasons last year. Hawthorn will have missed for three years by September. Adelaide collapsed after its 2017 grand final appearance.
We always start the season with great optimism that it’s going to be hard fought and go down to the wire. But too often reality checks in and those on the cusp remain on the cusp, those who disappoint remain disappointing. And those on top stay there.
The big clubs, with money, will always be there abouts. Even through a rebuild.
Collingwood had to lose key players to fix a salary cap dilemma, and there was disruption at the club. Last week’s win over Melbourne proved though that its list is good enough to win big games of footy, and it has the backbone to win lots of football.
The new Pies coach will be taking over a good football side that could challenge for the eight next year.
Hawthorn is in a rebuild. But I can almost guarantee that its rebuild will be quicker than most. Good football organisations get it right.
The Hawks will have a couple of lean years and rebound quickly because of their ability to sort through which players suit them from the available free-agency list, and the ability to draft good young players.
That’s different to North Melbourne who struggles to attract any real talent, so its depth remains stretched. Every year it’s the same. What free agent is going to nominate North as its preferred club?
St Kilda is a major disappointment. Up by six goals last week to again lose momentum, and the game — don’t tell me that’s not a fitness issue, it has dogged them all year.
I, like many, had the Saints in the eight at the start of the year, on the back of making finals last season. But maybe that’s the trouble, eight is good enough. I hope not.
Carlton went on a recruiting spree, but ultimately enlisted passive players who don’t add the grunt or the depth to match the top sides regularly. How long can the Blues continue to promise without results?
The best of Greater Western Sydney is behind it. It is a shadow of its grand final team self because the players don’t work hard enough for each other to be consistent. With the big clubs sniffing around the Giants’ restless talent, how will they ever rebuild?
Fremantle has beaten only one team inside the eight, the Swans in round 10. They show promise and coach Justin Longmuir, poise. But is it destined to remain the Eagles’ poor cousin?
Early season I put Gold Coast in the eight on the premise that kids would mature and that what it showed last year could be built on. But it just hasn’t happened.
Are the Suns going to be like all Gold Coast sporting teams who tease but don’t produce?
There hasn’t been the crowds, but there has been a big TV audience for the footy this year. And supporters at home are being cheated.
For all the AFL’s socialist intents and purposes — the draft, free-agency, the trade — it always, only, helps the big clubs. Very few players from a top-eight team would want to leave for a lower placed club. And so the rich get richer.
When this changes, so will the ladder.
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