Nathan Buckley’s 2025 predictions: Carlton to miss finals, Hawthorn a team to fear

The finals race is set to be more competitive than ever this year. Collingwood great NATHAN BUCKLEY explains why Carlton and Port Adelaide will miss out and reveals his top-eight prediction.

Collingwood great Nathan Buckley says his old arch rival Carlton has too many “grinders and battlers” on its list to play finals this season.

The former Magpies captain and coach has major concerns about the Blues’ backline and their ability to withstand opposition run-ons during key periods of games.

Buckley, who will write for the Herald Sun each Saturday this AFL season, has taken no prisoners in his predictions for the 2025 season with Carlton in the crosshairs.

“The depth of their list is real grinders and battlers and I think they actually played better in the trenches,” Buckley said.

“They’ve got talented players whose best is A-grade but I think their lower level hasn’t been able to come up to speed.

“I don’t think you can beat the best teams without … you are going to have 10 to 15-minute periods where you can’t get blown out of the park, you just need to be able to hold.

“I don’t think Carlton has shown they are capable of that compared to other contenders.”

As he prepares for another season behind the microphone with Fox Footy, Buckley says the loss of veteran Nic Newman for the season is a major blow given his doubts about whether Mitch McGovern can step up to support All-Australian defender Jacob Weitering.

“There is a question mark about their back six with Newman out,” he said. “Who supports Weitering? I have got massive doubts about if McGovern should be that second key back because he gets exposed on small players and on any fast movement into the opposition’s forward line.

Nathan Buckley is worried about Michael Voss’ Blues.

Buckley says the Blues will miss out on the eight. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

“While he has got great attributes I think he can be a liability at times behind the ball.”

The Blues’ injury profile also worries Buckley with key forward Charlie Curnow and gun midfielder Sam Walsh having endured interrupted summers.

He says they need to recapture their ferocious game style from 2023 when they made a stunning run to the preliminary final.

“That is their best footy and that was off the back of an absolute fierce contest, pressure on the opposition, unrelenting,” Buckley said.

“It wasn’t off talent, it was just off their want and their desire was higher than the opposition and they have to find that to be their best.”

FEAR THE HOK

Buckley is also wary about how Hawthorn handles being the hunted this season after being the surprise packet of 2024.

“I just feel like they rode a wave of exceeding expectations which is the best play, the best time to express yourself, the easiest time because you’re playing with house money,” he said.

“They are going to get a punch in the nose at some stage this year and as good as they’ve looked and as solid as they have been, we will find out what the underbelly of Hawthorn is this year.

“They could miss the finals and still be really good in the next four or five years. Or they could finish exactly the same, they could make the finals and be playing some of their best footy at the end of the year again but they won’t be in the same position as they won’t have the same freedom that they played with (in 2024).

There’s huge expectations on the Hawks going in to 2025. Picture: Michael Klein

“How do they handle that? How do the individuals cope with that when there is a bit more expectation? Can they still express themselves?

“When they do get the positive results and they do express themselves, they won’t get the same dopamine hit, they won’t get the same endorphins from it because they have done it before.

“Celebrating a goal of an amazing piece of play is going to be a little more ho-hum than it was last year. I don’t know how this young group is going to cope or handle it and I don’t know even if Sam Mitchell would know that.

“Human nature and experience tells me that it is going to be more of a grind, it is going to be a lot harder for them and they will discover a lot about themselves this year.

“How they handle it is going to be a great watch.”

GRAND-FINAL HANGOVER

Buckley has both of last year’s grand finalists, Brisbane and Sydney, again finishing in the top four alongside the Greater Western Sydney and Geelong with Collingwood and Fremantle capable of spiking.

On his old team, Buckley says their “best footy still stacks up”.

“If they have an even run with injury they have a lot of talent on the park,” he said. “The biggest concern for me is their back six and they were a little bit off (last year).

“(Isaac) Quaynor needs to have a better year, Darcy Moore needs to have a much better year and Jeremy Howe needs to play 20 games. There are questions about them and they’re very similar to Carlton in that regard.”

Buckley believes to be a top side you need the “hurt factor” and you need to have a healthy appetite for risk and chaos.

Buckley says Collingwood needs Darcy Moore back to his best to contend. Picture: Michael Klein

He likes the GWS Giants because of their “hurt factor” forward half which includes Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, an improving Aaron Cadman and a fitter Jake Stringer.

And he sees Fremantle embracing more risk in their game which, if they get the balance right, could take them deep into September.

“They have flipped the script, they were all about defence and no offence a couple of years ago and now the question about Freo is a little bit more about how they defend turnover.”

Buckley had Port Adelaide in his eight for most of the summer before losing faith in their key defensive pillars in recent times while he also had too many question marks on the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide who he had previously been bullish about over the past couple of years.

He says it’s a credit to the AFL’s equalisation policy that the 2025 season is as wide open as he can remember.

“You could get four wrong in the top eight and not be that far off.”

Originally published as Nathan Buckley’s 2025 predictions: Carlton to miss finals, Hawthorn a team to fear