The Run Home: We take a close look at every club’s fixture for the final nine rounds

WITH nine rounds to go 12 teams are still a chance to make the top eight, and four teams could finish equal-third. How will the run to the finals play out — and why the Blues will avoid the wooden spoon. HAVE YOUR SAY

HOW many wins will it take to make the top four?

Last year the Giants finished fourth with 14 wins but this year that probably won’t cut it.

With several teams struggling at the foot of the ladder we could be looking at a season more like 2016 when the Western Bulldogs won 15 games and finished seventh after the home-and-away season (before going on the win the premiership).

In fact, a closer look at the fixture over the final nine game reveals four teams could finish equal third on 60 points (15 wins), so percentage will be crucial in deciding final ladder positions.

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With the byes in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to get the calculator out to figure out who can make the eight, the top four and who will collect the wooden spoon.

To save you the trouble, we’ve taken a close look at every team’s run home. Scroll down to see our predictions for the last nine rounds and where your club will finish.

1. RICHMOND 44 135.3%

16 — Adelaide Crows, MCG (Home) W

17 — GWS Giants, Spotless Stadium (Away) W

18 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

19 — Collingwood, MCG (Home) W

20 — Geelong Cats, MCG (Home) W

21 — Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium (Away) W

22 — Essendon, MCG (Home) W

23 — Western Bulldogs, MCG (Home) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 19 wins, 76 points

WE SAY: The Tigers will start favourite in every game and after toppling the Swans it’s a bit of a battle to find one they could drop. The Pies and Cats in Round 19 and 20 will also be tough, but any other loss would be a major surprise. In the box seat for a top-two finish and a rails run in September, not leaving the MCG.

2. SYDNEY 40 123.9%

16 — Geelong, SCG (Home) W

17 — North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

18 — Gold Coast Suns, SCG (Home) W

19 — Essendon, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

20 — Collingwood, SCG (Home) W

21 — Melbourne, MCG (Away) L

22 — GWS Giants, Spotless Stadium (Away) W

23 — Hawthorn, SCG (Home) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 17 wins, 68 points

WE SAY: Didn’t lose any fans with their performance against the Tigers but it makes next week at the SCG massive. Another loss and a top-four spot becomes an issue given the likes of Collingwood, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne have far easier runs. A lot might depend on whether the Giants are mounting a run for the eight or thinking about next season in Round 22.

3. WEST COAST 40 123.9%

15 — Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

16 — GWS Giants, Perth Stadium (Home) W

17 — Collingwood, MCG (Away) L

18 — Western Bulldogs, Perth Stadium (Home) W

19 — North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena (Away) L

20 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Home) W

21 — Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

22 — Melbourne, Perth Stadium (Home) W

23 — Brisbane Lions, Gabba (Away) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 15 wins, 60 points

WE SAY: We’re only giving the Eagles another five wins, and that includes a derby against the Dockers when anything can happen. A tough run home includes road trips to Adelaide (twice), Hobart, Brisbane and a place they may not recognise called the MCG. That would give them 15 wins which should be enough for top four but it’s no guarantee. Can’t afford to let their percentage slip.

Trent Cotchin is set to lead the Tigers into another finals campaign.

Mason Cox and the Magpies have their eyes on a top-four spot.

4. COLLINGWOOD 36 119.4%

15 — Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium (Away) W

16 — Essendon, MCG (Away) W

17 — West Coast, MCG (Home) W

18 — North Melbourne, MCG (Home) W

19 — Richmond, MCG (Away) L

20 — Sydney Swans, SCG (Away) L

21 — Brisbane Lions, Etihad Stadium (Home) W

22 — Port Adelaide, MCG (Home) W

23 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 16 wins, 64 points

WE SAY: Adam Treloar’s injury doesn’t help but we think the Pies can extend their winning streak to eight and stake a huge claim on a top-four spot. Then it’s a matter of hanging on over a tough final five weeks. How big would a Tigers v Pies qualifying final be?

5. PORT ADELAIDE 36 113.9%

15 — Carlton, MCG (Away) - W

16 — St Kilda, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

17 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away) W

18 — GWS Giants, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

19 — Western Bulldogs, Mars Stadium (Away) L

20 — Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Home) L

21 — West Coast, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

22 — Collingwood, MCG (Away) L

23 — Essendon, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 15 wins, 60 points

WE SAY: Port is finding its mojo and has a nice-looking month ahead. They’ll be due for a loss by the time they hit Ballarat and facing the Dogs there will be a hard assignment. Tough opposition looms in the final three weeks but the Adelaide Oval advantage can see them power to the line.

6. MELBOURNE 32 127.3%

15 — St Kilda, MCG (Home) W

16 — Fremantle, TIO Stadium (Home) W

17 — Western Bulldogs, MCG (Home) W

18 — Geelong Cats, GMHBA Stadium (Away) L

19 — Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval (Away) W

20 — Gold Coast, MCG (Home) W

21 — Sydney Swans, MCG (Home) W

22 — West Coast, Perth Stadium (Away) L

23 — GWS Giants, MCG (Home) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 15 wins, 60 points

WE SAY: Big game flops? Nothing to panic about for the Dees, who do some travelling before September. Three wins in the next three weeks would shore up a likely finals berth, but the footy world is watching after last year’s late-season disappointment.

7. GEELONG 32 126.2%

15 — Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

16 — Sydney Swans, SCG (Away) L

17 — Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval (Away) W

18 — Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium (Home) W

19 — Brisbane Lions, GMHBA Stadium (Home) W

20 — Richmond, MCG (Away) L

21 — Hawthorn, MCG (Away) W

22 — Fremantle, GMHBA Stadium (Home) W

23 — Gold Coast, GMHBA Stadium (Home) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 15 wins, 60 points

WE SAY: Who knows with the Cats, who have shown they’re more than capable of dropping some “easier” ones. We’ll give them the games in Geelong - although the Dees will be tough - but outside of that we can only tip on ladder positions. Can set themselves up with a big month.

8. NORTH MELBOURNE 32 116.9%

5 — Essendon, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

16 — Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium (Home) W

17 — Sydney Swans, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

18 — Collingwood, MCG (Away) L

19 — West Coast, Blundstone Arena (Home) W

20 — Brisbane Lions, The Gabba (Away) W

21 — Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium (Home) W

22 — Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

23 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 14 wins, 56 points

WE SAY: On paper the Roos have one of the better fixtures going around. Some think they’ll get the wobbles but a win over an in-form Essendon this week might silence the doubters - and add to the belief at Arden St. If 13 wins gets you into the eight this year, surely this year’s surprise packets can snare five of their remaining nine?

Jarryd Roughead and the Hawks are well placed for a return to the finals.

Likey Coleman medallist Ben Brown could be a big weapon in September.

9. HAWTHORN 32 115.6%

15 — GWS Giants, Spotless Stadium (Away) L

16 — Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

17 — Brisbane Lions, University of Tasmania Stadium (Home) W

18 — Carlton, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

19 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away) W

20 — Essendon, MCG (Home) W

21 — Geelong Cats, MCG (Home) L

22 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

23 — Sydney Swans, SCG (Away) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 14 wins, 56 points

WE SAY: The Hawks will be sniffing an upset this weekend against GWS following Jeremy Cameron’s suspension even though the Giants remain favourites. Should the Hawks steal a win at Spotless Stadium, however, you can nearly pencil them in for finals with a winnable stretch of five games to follow against the Bulldogs, Lions, Blues, Dockers and Bombers. The Fremantle and Essendon results will go a long way to determining their September fate because their season ends with tough games against Geelong and Sydney.

10. GWS GIANTS 30 113.7%

15 — Hawthorn, Spotless Stadium (Home) W

16 — West Coast, Perth Stadium (Away) L

17 — Richmond, Spotless Stadium (Home) L

18 — Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

19 — St Kilda, Spotless Stadium (Home) W

20 — Carlton, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

21 — Adelaide, Canberra (Home) W

22 — Sydney, Spotless Stadium (Home) L

23 — Melbourne, MCG (Away) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 11 wins, 1 draw, 46 points

WE SAY: They’re only half a game outside the top eight, but the Giants face a season-defining clash against Hawthorn at home. After the Hawks come West Coast, Richmond and Port Adelaide, with two of those three games on the road, and without suspended forward Jeremy Cameron. Even if the Giants were to recover after that horror run, they would need to beat either Sydney or Melbourne – possibly both – to give themselves a chance.

Champion Data ladder predictions after Round 14, 2018

11. ADELAIDE 24 110.4%

15 — West Coast, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

16 — Richmond, MCG (Away) L

17 — Geelong, Adelaide Oval (Home) L

18 — Brisbane Lions, The Gabba (Away) W

19 — Melbourne, Adelaide Oval (Home) L

20 — Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

21 — GWS Giants, UNSW Canberra Oval (Away) L

22 — North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval (Home) W

23 — Carlton Etihad Stadium (Away) W

PREDICTED FINISH: 11 wins, 44 points

WE SAY: An injury-hit West Coast has come at the right time for the Crows, who may have received the circuit-breaker they needed this week after the club officially announced it had dumped Collective Mind. Must beat the Cats and Demons at home to keep their season alive.

12. ESSENDON 24 93.1%

15 — North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

16 — Collingwood, MCG (Home) L

17 — Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium (Away) W

18 — Fremantle, Etihad Stadium (Home) W

19 — Sydney Swans, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

20 — Hawthorn, MCG (Away) L

21 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Home) W

22 — Richmond, MCG (Away) L

23 — Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 10 wins, 40 points

WE SAY: The Bombers have a challenging run home, which makes Sunday’s clash against the Kangaroos a huge one for them. Lock them in to beat the Suns, Dockers and Saints, but that won’t be enough. With their poor percentage, the Bombers would need three wins from the Magpies, Swans, Hawks, Tigers and Power.

13. FREMANTLE 24 88.7%

15 — Brisbane Lions, Perth Stadium (Home) W

16 — Melbourne, TIO Stadium (Away) L

17 — Port Adelaide, Perth Stadium (Home) L

18 — Essendon, Etihad Stadium (Away) L

19 — Hawthorn, Perth Stadium (Home) L

20 — West Coast, Perth Stadium (Away) L

21 — Carlton, Perth Stadium (Home) W

22 — Geelong, GMHBA Stadium (Away) L

23 — Collingwood, Perth Stadium (Home) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 9 wins, 32 points

WE SAY: Fremantle fans holding off on booking a September holiday, wait no more. With the club currently two games and a whopping 29 per cent out of the top eight, the finals dream is officially over for another year. There aren’t many winnable games on the run home, with the Dockers taking on just two sides ranked below them. The Round 20 derby will be their Grand Final.

It could be a tough nine weeks for Marcus Bontempelli and the Bulldogs.

14. WESTERN BULLDOGS 16 74.6%

15 — Geelong, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

16 — Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

17 — Melbourne, MCG (Away) L

18 — West Coast, Perth Stadium (Away) L

19 — Port Adelaide, Mars Stadium (Home) W

20 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

21 — North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium (Away) L

22 — Carlton, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

23 — Richmond MCG (Away) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 7 wins, 28 points

WE SAY: A horror season could be about to get even uglier for the Doggies. Four of the club’s next five games are against top-four contenders, while the other is against the finals-bound Hawks. Ouch! Even the Round 20 clash against the Saints is no certainty. We’ve given them a home win in Ballarat against Port but that’s far from a sure thing. Finishing the season with six wins would be nothing short of a disaster for the 2016 premiers.

15. GOLD COAST 12 63%

15 — Collingwood, Metricon Stadium (Home) L

16 — North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium (Away) L

17 — Essendon, Metricon Stadium (Home) L

18 — Sydney, SCG (Away) L

19 — Carlton, Metricon Stadium (Home) L

20 — Melbourne, MCG (Away) L

21 — Richmond, Metricon Stadium (Home) L

22 — Brisbane Lions, Metricon Stadium (Home) L

23 — Geelong, GMHBA Stadium (Away) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 3 wins, 12 points

WE SAY: The best thing the Suns can do for their future is embrace the tank. They need to get into that bottom two and get another top draft pick. The good news is, they don’t have to change anything to lose most of these matches. It can be business as usual. The one red flag on the fixture is the Round 19 home game against the Blues. Tom Lynch, Steven May and Jack Martin should sit that one out.

16. ST KILDA 10 70.8%

15 — Melbourne, MCG (Away) L

16 — Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away) L

17 — Carlton, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

18 — Richmond, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

19 — GWS Giants, Spotless Stadium (Away) L

20 — Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

21 — Essendon, Etihad Stadium (Away) L

22 — Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

23 — North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 2 wins, 1 draw, 10 points

WE SAY: Storming home to overrun the struggling Suns before the bye has sold some hope to Saints fans, but a difficult fortnight against top-four contenders Melbourne and Port Adelaide should quell the fleeting moment of optimism. The following week against Carlton looms as St Kilda’s best chance of another win, but the Blues’ efforts against Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood suggest they are on the verge of a result. The Saints could steal an upset victory somewhere else, but a winless run home is possible and the wooden spoon is very much in play – especially if they lose to Carlton in Round 17.

17. BRISBANE LIONS 4 78.4%

15 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away) L

16 — Carlton, Gabba (Home) W

17 — Hawthorn, University of Tasmania Stadium (Away) L

18 — Adelaide, Gabba (Home) L

19 — Geelong, GMHBA Stadium (Away) L

20 — North Melbourne, Gabba (Home) L

21 — Collingwood, Etihad Stadium (Away) L

22 — Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium (Away) W

23 — West Coast, Gabba (Home) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 3 wins, 12 points

WE SAY: With the best percentage of any bottom-five team, more is going right than what their 1-12 record suggests. But losing has become a habit and in close contests, the Lions have always found a way to not win. Their best is capable of pushing anyone in their run home, but the next step is to turn those ‘honourable losses’ into wins. Should go in as favourites against Carlton and Gold Coast and aren’t without a chance of snatching wins off North Melbourne or Adelaide at the Gabba.

18. CARLTON 4 62.7%

15 — Port Adelaide, MCG (Home) L

16 — Brisbane Lions, The Gabba (Away) L

17 — St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away) W

18 — Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

19 — Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium (Away) W

20 — GWS Giants, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

21 — Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away) L

22 — Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

23 — Adelaide Crows, Etihad Stadium (Home) L

PREDICTED FINISH: 3 wins, 12 points

WE SAY: With only one top-eight team left to face – Port Adelaide, this week – Carlton’s run home presents a realistic opportunity for wins and optimism. The current leaders in the race for the wooden spoon play every other bottom five team in the final nine games and will need to beat a couple of them to get off the bottom of the ladder. Round 16 in Brisbane will go a long way to deciding which club is anchored to the bottom, and a win the next week against St Kilda could even see them climb out of the bottom two. Momentum can do funny things, and if they can find wins against their neighbours then could they even shock the Crows in Round 23 at home?

Originally published as The Run Home: We take a close look at every club’s fixture for the final nine rounds