Teams are finding it harder to win from behind in 2018
NOT only has scoring dropped and congestion more pronounced this season, the territory game is making it harder for teams to play catch-up.
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IS the territory game in 2018 bringing about the end of the last-quarter comeback?
In a season where scoring has dropped and congestion more pronounced this season, teams are finding it harder than ever to play catch-up.
Quite simply, when a team is in front at three-quarter time it is a near-certainty to win the match.
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After seven rounds, just four games have been won when a side has trailed at the final break — which is 11 less than at the same point of the season last year — despite statistics showing the average three-quarter time margin is the same.
Two of those games were lost by Geelong against West Coast in Round 3 and Sydney in Round 6, while Essendon overturned a 20-point deficit against Adelaide in Round 1 and last week the Western Bulldogs came from three-points behind to defeat Gold Coast.
In Round 5, St Kilda had to settle for a draw against Greater Western Sydney, when Jake Carlisle spilt a mark in front of goal and was then unlucky not to receive a free kick, after fighting back from nine points down at the last break.
There were 10 fourth-quarter comebacks by Round 7 in 2016 and seven in 2015, despite teams coming from further behind.
Champion Data has revealed that the average margin at three-quarter time this season is 25.4 points, just 0.2 more than last year, but 4.8 and 3.4 points fewer than 2016 and 2015 respectively.
Last season was considered to be one of the closest seasons, but this year has been just as tight, and teams are better-equipped to hold on to their lead with heavy defensive tactics that aim to lock the ball in their forward half.
That means breaking a game open with a run of goals has become more difficult.
And recent history shows scoring doesn’t get better as the season wears on.
Suddenly, lagging behind in a match has become fraught with danger.
Source: CHAMPION DATA
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Originally published as Teams are finding it harder to win from behind in 2018
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