Sunday Herald Sun football team rates every potential AFL finalist and where they need to lift
CAN the Bombers handle the September heat? Do the Cats have the forward line to win a flag? Who is Richmond’s second tall? See every club’s biggest premiership roadblock here.
THE race to September is on.
With the AFL finals just around the corner, the Sunday Herald Sun football team, including premiership coach Mick Malthouse, rates every contender and their chances of wreaking havoc in September as we head towards the business end of the season.
ROBBO: SAD TALE OF FIVE BROWNLOWS
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GEELONG
Finals forecast: What makes this side fit for finals? This is an easy one — Dangerwood. People can pick holes in the Cats but the facts are that if Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood get hot in September then Geelong can win the flag. Forget about the clinched “it’s all about the support cast”, history shows it’s the stars who win the big games.
Their kryptonite: The forward structure is too hit or miss. Tom Hawkins has lost his way this season with the lack of assistance becoming a problem. Harry Taylor still looks better as a defender even though he kicked five goals last week. Daniel Menzel is a star but on one leg so he shouldn’t carry the burden of being the No.2 target. At one stage injuries had all the Cats small forwards missing but the return of first-year player Brandon Parfitt in recent weeks is crucial. The kid has speed and a bit of X-factor about him which this team has lacked thanks to Steve Motlop being horribly out-of-form.
Fairytale factor: It has to be Menzel. He was easily one of the most exciting talents in the game when he blew his knee out in the 2011 final series. We all know what has happened since and if anyone deserved to get a premiership medallion it is the Cats mercurial half-forward.
Mick Malthouse says: Geelong is more than a one-man band, however, when Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are both negated on match day this becomes the biggest risk to the Cats advancing.
Zach Tuohy has been a wonderful addition this season, providing Geelong with run from the backline.
It can be argued the forwards are inconsistent at best so the Cats may have to rely on Harry Taylor to shake it up when it’s crunch time.
When Geelong plays angry football it is very good. The losses come at unexplained times when there is a lack of real passion for the contest.
This trait opposes success in a finals series.
Run home: v Swans (SS), v Ricmond (SS), v Collingwood (MCG), v Giants (SS)
RICHMOND
Finals forecast: Based on the post-Round 18 ladder, Richmond held a 4-3 record against top-eight sides. Of those three losses, two have come by single-figure margins — Sydney (nine points) and Greater Western Sydney (three points). That shows Damien Hardwick’s men can match it with the best in the competition. Richmond also has star factor and one of the best spines in the competition with Alex Rance down back, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin in the midfield and Jack Riewoldt spearheading the attack.
Q+A: COTCH TAKES US INSIDE TIGER DEN
Their kryptonite:The question mark remains around the Tigers’ lack of a second tall up forward to support Riewoldt. Ben Griffiths remains sidelined through injury and Todd Elton and Ivan Soldo have been tried with little success. A small and mobile forward line could work but Richmond may need to bed down a better structure for that before finals than what it has been displaying.
Fairytale factor:It’s been a long time since Richmond supporters had much to celebrate. The last premiership came 37 years ago in 1980 while the club won its last final under Danny Frawley in 2001. Since then, there have been six bottom-four finishes and three lost elimination finals. Just imagine if the Tigers train could go all the way this September. What a day it would be.
Mick says:Richmond currently is the surprise packet. Falsely I have rated them on the performances of Alex Rance, Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt.
Trent Cotchin has stood up not only as a player, but he appears also to be over the burden of captaincy.
The Tigers’ game structure is sound.
In the league’s top three for scores against, defensively they have reduced their opposition to scratching out a score, which in itself is great, however in these weeks leading up to finals they also need to demonstrate they can kick 100 plus points in a game, as they are also the lowest scoring side in the top eight on average.
Tight defence is an excellent trait to have going into finals but if a team gets away from you, you have to be able to counter score.
Richmond’s biggest concern going forward is having every player playing his role consistently, without having to rely just on the few I have mentioned.
Run home: v Hawthorn (MCG), v Geelong (SS), v Fremantle (DS), v St Kilda (MCG)
SYDNEY SWANS
Finals forecast: After their worst start in 25 years (0-6) they are one of the form teams of the competition. Their guns Lance Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery are firing and they’ve added a new look with a faster midfield. Tom Mitchell’s departure has created more time in the midfield for Zak Jones, Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley and George Hewett. They look a lot better for it.
Callum Sinclair could be an unlikely X factor after booting 5 playing on Jake Carlisle last week. Kurt Tippett kicked 5 goals in the NEAFL last week as well and could still play a role in September
Their kryptonite: If there is one inclusion the Swans would like to make it’s Will Hayward into the forward line. He is a super talent who has enormous speed which he uses defensively and offensively. He can take a mark and also knows where the goals are.
Fairytale factor: Oliver Florent lost his father and Australian Davis Cup player Andrew Florent 11 months ago to cancer. Ollie has spoken about the inspiration he draws from his late father, imagine the emotion of accepting a premiership medallion.
Mick says: Sydney is the complete opposite. It revels in the contest of big games.
The last team to beat them was Hawthorn in Round 10 — and this weekend.
It has been an amazing journey for John Longmire and his team because after a slow start to the season, once they hit the play button everything has come together.
There’s no doubt the SCG is a great advantage, but whichever ground they play on no one has been able to stand up to their relentless pressure in the last 10 weeks.
It’s an ominous sign. The Swans would still be hurting from last year’s Grand Final loss, so watch out if they make the top four.
Lance Franklin is at his confident best, and the young players who have been brought in — such as Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Lewis Melican and Tom Papley — have given Sydney an added dimension. The Swans are looking dangerous and they know it.
Run home: v Geelong (SS), v Fremantle (SCG), v Adelaide (AO), v Carlton (SCG)
MELBOURNE
Finals forecast: Melbourne’s best football is as good as any. They have the weapons in attack, hard-nosed bulls in the middle and an aggressive way of defending. In a nutshell, they want to play a fearless brand of football that involves outnumbering the opposition at every contest. And this year they’ve taken major steps forward. Remember they punished premiership favourite Adelaide on their own track and should have beaten Richmond in the wet if not for injuries. Forget about the decade they have spent at the bottom of the ladder, for this group is highly-motivated to forge a new era. Keep September free, Dees fans.
Their kryptonite:Melbourne is eagerly circling Adelaide defender Jake Lever as part of its plan to reinforce the back half. Lever is one of the best young intercepting defenders in the competition and the Dees have a war chest of salary cap space to satisfy a bumper deal. The Dees defend high up the ground, and have lost 35 per cent of their defensive one-on-ones this season, ranked last in the AFL. Their opposition have also scored on 52 per cent of their entries in attack — again ranked 18th. They need Lever.
Fairytale factor: They have the longest premiership drought in the game — 53 years. A Melbourne flag (ahead of time) would be like the Dogs winning last year all over again.
Mick says:Melbourne has finally worked out that overuse of the ball is a waste of time.
It is playing with speed and confidence and now that Max Gawn appears to be getting back to top form, they almost have the right mix to go deep into September.
They have been starved of finals football for a long time so the hunger should be there.
I hope the discipline matters have been resolved. Bernie Vince copping a public spray from captain Nathan Jones was a good sign.
Jones has done the hard yards at the Demons and doesn’t want this year wasted. Jesse Hogan back gives them a target, and Tom McDonald has become one of the best swingmen in the competition. If Melbourne sticks to its current type of play form and stays focused on a week-to- week basis, then speed and controlled aggression will give its supporters something to behold.
Run home: v GWS (MO), v St Kilda (MCG), v Brisbane (MCG), v Collingwood (MCG)
ESSENDON
Finals forecast: Essendon’s best form is almost as good as anyone’s. The only downside is that the Bombers’ worst — which can come out at the most inopportune of times — can be just as confronting. Finding that level of consistency is crucial if John Worsfold’s team want to make a September statement. The forwards are working a treat (fourth overall in terms of goals kicked and with four players having kicked 28 goals or more); the defence has one of the best rebounding records in the competition (a mix of old and new): and the midfield is getting better each week (Jobe Watson included).
Their kryptonite: The ability to absorb pressure is an area in which the Bombers need to be better. We saw cracks late in the losses to Sydney and Brisbane that closing out a game can be an issue. It’s an area that Worsfold and the players have worked on, and they have a belief that the next time they are in a similar position, they can withstand the team coming at them. You get the feeling today’s game against the Western Bulldogs could be one of those such games.
Fairytale factor:Could there be a better way to put the whole dark sports supplements saga behind the Essendon Football Club than playing finals in the year that its banned players have made an emotional return? With Watson yet to make a call on his playing future, with retirement a likely option, it would be great to give him another chance to play finals footy again.
Mick says: The Bombers’ speed is only matched by Melbourne — in fact I would be prepared to say Essendon may be a smidgen faster across the ground.
They have the side to trouble most teams in the top eight. I don’t want to load up one player, but when Joe Daniher is on song, there are few defenders or around-the- ground ruckmen who can keep up with him.
Essendon’s year and what’s left of it, may depend on his ability to play at his best in every game.
Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Orazio Fantasia have given the Bombers new life, but the team’s weakness is its lack of consistency in bringing a blitzkrieg approach to the ground every week.
If this doesn’t materialise, then the lower half of the match day list can’t match up to the top eight sides.
The Bombers have been quite prolific in scoring, but they have been matched with high scores against.
Again, shootouts in finals are a risky business. Essendon’s chances are in its own hands.
Run home: v Carlton (MCG), v Adelaide (ES), v Gold Coast (MS), v Fremantle (ES)
ADELAIDE
Finals forecast: The Crows are contested-ball kings — one area that goes to the next level in September. They top the competition for contested possessions and are also given first look at the footy thanks to ruckman Sam Jacobs, who has led the team to the top of the table for hit-outs so far this season. They don’t waste the footy and their ability to get the ball inside 50 is among the best in the competition and once it gets there, the formidable forwards — led by skipper Taylor Walker — have shown their prowess on countless occasions this year to top the league for goals scored. They’re scary.
Their Kryptonite: Up to this round, according to Champion Data the Crows ranked second in the competition for “clanger” kicks — they simply don’t hold up in September as teams look for any opportunity to make their opposition pay.
Fairytale factor: The Crows have had to overcome a mixed bag of ailments in recent weeks — Tom Lynch’s viral meningitis, Eddie Betts’ emergency appendectomy and “that” food poisoning Josh Jenkins copped from some dodgy ham. Further, wouldn’t it be huge if Scott Thompson — who this week announced he will retire at season’s end — made his way back in for a premiership.
Mick says: Adelaide has been reasonably consistent this year but its losses have been poor and unpredicted.
The Crows lack speed and accountability through the midfield, and this is their Achilles heel.
Their forwards are interchangeable and terrific, and their backs rank highly in the competition. To me, the key player to link these two lines together is Tom Lynch.
He has his work cut out for him in September.
A home final will give Adelaide an advantage like no other, and it could be duplicated in prelim week.
Winning the premiership means negotiating the MCG, but I’m sure Don Pyke will take that.
Geelong, in contrast, is hindered somewhat because its finals will presumably be played away from its home ground, at the MCG. But having said that the Cats play pretty well at the ’G.
Run home: v Port Adelaide (AO), v Essendon (ES), v Sydney (AO), v West Coast (Subiaco)
GWS
Finals forecast: The wheels have started to wobble a bit over the last month but there is still time for GWS to get the juggernaut back on the rails. They will have two of their most important players in Jeremy Cameron and Stephen Coniglio back from injury this weekend and could have former Richmond Champ Bret Deledio back in the coming weeks as well as Jacob Hopper.
That’s an enormous injection of talent at the business end of the season, there isn’t another club who has those sort of stocks in reserve.
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Their kryptonite:Defensive pressure in the forward half. The Giants are woeful at it and need to improve. If Jonathon Patton and Rory Lobb don’t mark it the ball is walked out of their forward line continually. An ageing Steve Johnson doesn’t help in this area either. Perhaps Devon Smith needs to be their forward line hunter like Cyril Rioli is for the Hawks.
The fairytale factor: Steve Johnson. He won three premierships at Geelong and was cut loose when he wanted to play on two years ago. His knees are just about shot but if there is a man for the biggest stage it’s Johnson. If GWS make it to the last Saturday in September it will certainly be Johnsons last match in an illustrious career.
Mick says: For a side with as much talent as GWS has, its inexplicable that it can have only one win from its past five games.
There’s no question that they have been severely hindered by multiple long-term injuries (of which they have never complained,) but their efforts to stay in the game all day should be questioned.
The Giants can be brilliant right across the board and then go into a stupor and lose focus and momentum, and seem unable to arrest it.
As a consequence they are losing, or drawing games they should win.
I suspect, if and when they get key players such as Stephen Coniglio, Brett Deledio, Toby Greene, Steve Johnson, Jeremy Cameron and Ryan Griffen back and match hardened, they will improve dramatically.
Run home: v Melbourne (UNSW), v WB (ES), v West Coast (Spo), v Geelong (SS)
PORT ADELAIDE
Finals forecast: Like a lot of sides, Port Adelaide’s best this season has been brilliant. The Power have speed, flare and star power and as of Round 18, seven of their 10 wins had come by 40 points or more. Talk about killer instinct. Despite having just two players (Robbie Gray and Charlie Dixon) in the competition’s top 50 goalkickers, Port Adelaide is the second highest scoring team and has a defence that has conceded the least points of any side. Add to that a midfield which ranked No.2 in clearances and No.1 for generating inside-50s and there are few weaknesses around the ground.
Their kryptonite:The criticism of Port Adelaide continues to be that they are flat-track bullies who can’t seem to get over the line against the better teams. Based on the post-Round 18 ladder, the Power had played seven top-eight sides for a return of just one win. Is it mental? Do the better teams play a brand of football that Port Adelaide can’t handle? Either way, it is a problem that Ken Hinkley and his side need to overcome, and quickly.
The fairytale factor: The Power were one kick away from making a grand final in 2014 only to go on and win 22 of 44 games over the next two seasons. Hinkley has managed to turn that around this year, but it will all amount for little if the side is unable to do some damage in September.
Mick says: Port Adelaide amazingly is the least scored against team in the competition, but it can’t beat sides in the top eight. That gets you nowhere in finals.
There seems to be so many things working for them — Patrick Ryder in the ruck, with the big bodied Ollie Wines and Sam Powell-Pepper in the middle, and Travis Boak and Chad Wingard (when he overcomes his leg injury) from forward to the middle.
Its backline looks stable and it is the second highest scoring team in the league — and yet there is such doubt about them.
To me, Port seems to be able to bully sides in the lower half of the ladder, but becomes quite tame when the game is tighter and gets a bit more brutal against sides in the top eight.
They are an enigma.
Run home: v Adelaide (AO), v Collingwood (AO), v WB (MSB), v Gold Coast (AO)
WEST COAST
Finals forecast: They’re not — yet. Adam Simpson insisted his players are up for the fight, but they will need to be. Having won six of their first eight games, West Coast has won only three of their past nine. They’ve looked slow, they have fallen off a cliff in overall possession differential and given up big leads at the back end of games. Let’s start with the disposals. Since Round 9, the Eagles have averaged almost 25 disposals and four clearances fewer per game than their opponents. Josh Kennedy needs more help in attack; the midfield must make more of an impact (at least Sam Mitchell is back this week); and the defence needs to hold up better under pressure.
Their kryptonite:Speed, speed and more speed. It has been the talking point out west that West Coast just lacks that X-factor spark through the middle of the ground that is so desperately required in finals. It’s hard to find one in late July. But Simpson will look at making a few selection tweaks in the coming weeks in his search for a better way forward — for now and the future.
The fairytale factor: With Brownlow Medallists Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis to retire at season’s end, the chance to send them off in the heat of September would be befitting their careers. Mitchell, in particular, has a grand tradition of finals footy, having played 24 finals from nine series.
Mick says: The West Coast Eagles are so predictable. They are not soft but they can play soft football, which lets the opposition back into the game without being able to stop them, as illustrated in their loss to Collingwood last weekend.
Their percentage is testament to the way their year has gone — not prolific in scoring, and likewise not overly defensive, allowing moderate to high scores against.
If Nic Naitanui can get back for finals it will make a massive difference, but all and sundry know that the physical demands of returning from a knee injury are matched only by the mental demands — it is basically a 12-month sentence.
I fear that the Eagle’s better players who are now in their late 20s early 30s just can’t sustain the intensity required to take them too far into September.
Adam Simpson has done everything in his power to reboot and redesign his team and it works, but then it fades. Winning at home now will not ensure a place in the finals.
Run home: v St Kilda (ES), v Carlton (Subi), v GWS (Spo), v Adelaide (Subi)
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Finals forecast: SEPTEMBER know-how. The Dogs will field 16 premiership stars today, while coach Luke Beveridge boasts a phenomenal finals record. He coached three amateur flags, was involved at Collingwood (2010) and Hawthorn (2013-14) and then mentoree last year’s triumph. After an evolving line-up they appear to be settling on a mix of players with Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken, Shane Biggs, Toby McLean and Jason Johannisen all emerging from form slumps. It appears ‘Handball Club’ is back in session, with the Dogs’ rapid movement by hand also starting to click back into gear, while the backline has leaked just 17 goals in the past fortnight.
Their kryptonite: The offensive unit is yet to really fire, although Beveridge is holding out hope that Travis Cloke can click it into gear. The Dogs have won eight of 10 games when outscoring their opposition from turnovers, but rank just 13th for points from turnovers (51.5). The inefficiency in attack was a similar issue this time last season, and one sharply corrected come finals. Injuries to Dale Morris and Marcus Adams weaken the defence, but kids Lewis Young and Zaine Cordy are playing great footy ahead of daunting duels against Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker today.
Fairytale factor: Bob Murphy — the game’s most popular player — called to the dais to receive his own premiership medal. Plus, who doesn’t love a quality sequel with similar plot twists?
Mick says: It wasn’t long ago that I was singing the praises of the Western Bulldogs’ game plan.
But it seems to have become too much of a burden to maintain.
The players look tired very quickly in matches.
Tom Liberatore and Luke Dalhaus are not having the same impact in the midfield as last year. Their backs, while brave, are letting easier goals in. And no one is really standing up in the forward line to demand attention.
Dale Morris now out for the season will be missed.
As much as the Dogs are currently just outside the eight, the dynamics, tenacity and ‘scraggier the dog’ attitude have dissipated.
Their game plan was always a labour of love — tough and uncompromising.
But it needed willing bodies, and above all willing minds.
I’ve seen this before — when the mind and body just cannot continue at the same intensity over a prolonged period of time.
Run home: v Brisbane (G), v GWS (ES), v Port Adelaide (MSB), v Hawthorn (ES)
ST KILDA
Finals forecast:When they’re on, they’re on. Earlier in the season, their tackle differential was the best in the competition and they have the ability to move the ball with the best of them. Seb Ross started the season in sharp form and could have done with some more support, and the forwardline has taken some tinkering, but if they make it to September they’ll be as hungry as anyone.
Their kryptonite: Inconsistency has plagued the Saints — even in recent weeks. After a blistering win over Richmond, things haven’t exactly gone to plan since then with last weekend’s loss to Sydney a prime example of that.
The fairytale factor: Two words — Riewoldt and Montagna. The latter this week conceded that the team making finals would likely be his only chance of playing again this season, and he said he didn’t know whether his latest hamstring injury means he has played his last game after 16 years. As for the former, well, it goes without saying. Don’t think any football fan would begrudge the future Hall of Famer getting the ultimate taste of glory.
Mick says: After a magnificent game against Richmond, St Kilda has fallen off its perch.
It is a shadow of one of the best running sides in the league.
The Saints have sadly missed Tim Membrey who had become a major player in their forward line.
Josh Bruce has been good but not great and Nick Riewoldt has continued to struggle, so their goals have dried up.
Their leakage at the other end has been enormous, but this is also due to the midfield being exposed.
Jack Steven and Seb Ross have lacked penetration and effect and when they are taken out of the game the team becomes rudderless.
St Kilda may very well fall victim to the words consistency and intensity.
I believe they are good enough for the eight, but will need to quickly change back into the supermen they were when they were winning games to make it.
Run home: v West Coast (ES), v Melbourne (MCG), v North Melbourne (ES), v Richmond (MCG)
HAWTHORN
Finals forecast: Clarko is a bigger genius than we thought. In April he warned “catastrophic change” might have to be made. Instead, he has weaved his magic to rebuild roles and reshape the team on the run. In the process he has given Hawthorn supporters an exciting glimpse into the future. He has reinvented new roles for the likes of James Sicily, Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea and Daniel Howe, while bringing in a host of kids capable of holding down important roles. How long it can last this year is a mute point. But the Hawks are coming again, even if they haven’t been away for long.
Their kryptonite: Not much, given the Hawks are the only team to beat the Swans (twice) since Round 7. Their greatest concern is the fact they have left themselves no margin for error. Any loss over the last month will likely end their season. A host of injured players are on the comeback from injury, but some of them will pull the pin if the finals do become out of reach.
Fairytale factor: Two words — Luke Hodge. The Hawks’ finals warrior probably thought he had played his last September match, but even though a finals farewell still looks unlikely, it is not impossible.
Mick says: Hawthorn and Sydney have been the heavyweights of the competition for some time now, but this year one of them will miss finals.
The transformation of the Hawks since the beginning of this season has been incredible.
Tom Mitchell has been a stand out, plus young players such as Ryan Burton, Daniel Howe, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick have altered the dynamics of the team.
They have been hit hard with injury and the form slide of some older players, but no one ever really wants to play the Hawks when it counts for a position in the eight.
There is not much wriggle room for them, and they need a lot of things to go their way, so even with recent big scalps the Hawks may run out of games to make the eight.
Run home: v Richmond (MCG), v North Melbourne (US), v Carlton (ES), v Bulldogs (ES)
Originally published as Sunday Herald Sun football team rates every potential AFL finalist and where they need to lift