Revealed: The full report which blows the lid on which clubs are the darlings of AFL umpires
A Melbourne mathematician has crunched more than two decades of data to reveal which clubs are the darlings of AFL umpires, detailing the truth behind every side’s free kick count. READ THE FULL REPORT
Everyone hates Collingwood, except the umpires.
Two decades of data crunched by a Melbourne mathematician reveals the Pies, West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs are the darlings of the men in green.
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And the revamped Adelaide Oval is fast emerging as another whistleblower paradise for Don Pyke’s Adelaide Crows.
Nathan Buckley’s troops have ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd for free kicks paid to advantage across the past five years.
Curiously, even when on the road Collingwood sit in the top three for free kicks awarded in away games in 13 of the last 23 AFL seasons.
“That’s a dream run,” researcher John Marinopoulos declared in his report compiled for the Herald Sun.
Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition.
The report shows the powerhouse Eagles have been on the right side of the free kick ledger while playing home matches at Subiaco or the new Perth Stadium in all but one of the last 23 seasons.
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They have ranked a runaway 1st for home free kicks in nine of the past 15 seasons.
Sacked St Kilda coach Alan Richardson once famously referred to the favourable run of umpiring enjoyed by the Eagles while playing in front of an adoring home Perth crowd as the “noise of affirmation”.
Since 2012 alone, West Coast has averaged five more free kicks at home than their opposition, despite an abnormally poor run this year.
After shifting to its new home ground in 2014, Adelaide has ranked near the top of the free kick tree in five out of the past six seasons.
The report proves Richardson’s theory: more free kicks have been paid to teams playing at home across every AFL season since 1997.
“There is no doubt over many seasons that there are always more frees paid at home than against,” Marinopoulos said.
“The impact of the home fans is substantial.”
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On the flip side, Greater Western Sydney and St Kilda have endured the worst run for total free kicks paid.
The Giants have ranked 17th, 16th, 17th, 17th, 10th, 16th and 15th since their second season in 2013.
“Maybe it’s their style of play or the lack of crowds, but it’s very low,” Marinopoulos said.
The Saints ranked 1st in their Grand Final year of 2009 but have continuously featured at the bottom of the free kick ladder ever since.
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Marinopoulos said the Bulldogs and their modest fan base were the league’s anomaly, rivalling the Eagles for free kicks paid at home.
The Dogs have ranked in the top three for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and sit first while playing at Marvel Stadium this year.
They were also No.1 on the free kick register when they broke their 62-year premiership drought in 2016 and sit second overall for total frees since 1997.
For all home-and-away games this year, Collingwood has again enjoyed the most favorable free kick run. The bottom of the pile in 2019 are Richmond at home, St Kilda away, and the two Sydney teams overall.
The data reveals only three teams have bucked the trend and won a premiership in a season when they were ranked last for free kicks: Sydney in 2005, Hawthorn in 2008 and Richmond two years ago.
The report does not include AFL finals matches.
Originally published as Revealed: The full report which blows the lid on which clubs are the darlings of AFL umpires
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