Mick McGuane: Why Collingwood doesn’t want a close finish against Melbourne

Collingwood can’t afford a repeat of its slow start against Adelaide in a danger game against Melbourne. But if things are tight in the last quarter Pie fans could have even bigger worries. Mick McGuane analyses where the game will be won and lost.

Patrick Dangerfield must play in the midfield against the Power. Picture: Michael Klein

Collingwood is must tighten up defensively to survive a danger game against Melbourne.

The Magpies’ defensive six will be challenged against a good territory team such as the Demons, who have only lost the inside-50 count on three occasions this year (to Carlton, Brisbane and Port Adelaide).

The Magpies can ill afford to give up easy goals like they have in the last five rounds.

It will be interesting to see what their ball movement is like. Will they try and play that slow build-up game to try and starve Melbourne of the ball?

Expect a contested, smash and crash start — “hunt with grunt” — as both teams love the contest.

Collingwood cannot afford to lose the contested possession count like they did in the first quarter against Adelaide last week when they were -9.

Nathan Buckley also won’t want this game to go down to the wire. His team will have played four games in 14 days and backing up from Tuesday’s game, compared to a Melbourne team off a six-day break and running out games better than any team in the AFL.

The Demons have scored more than any other team in last quarters this season.

Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom need some help, too. The next rung of mids including Rupert Wills have to step up in this game. Thankfully, Scott Pendlebury and Jamie Elliott are back, but the depth players have been screaming for opportunities, so now is their time to shine.

Watch Footy LIVE & On-Demand Every Day from July 29 – August 17 with Kayo. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly >

Will Callum Brown and the Magpies feel tired after four games in 14 days?

GIVE WEID A CHANCE

The biggest challenge for Melbourne ahead of this match against Collingwood is getting their ball security forward of centre in sync.

The Demons consistently create ample opportunities, mainly due to the ball-winning abilities of Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw, Nathan Jones and Ed Langdon, but they cannot afford to replicate the return of only 38 per cent efficiency in forward 50m in the first term of last week’s game against North Melbourne.

The Kangaroos didn’t make them pay for that waste; the Magpies might.

Melbourne has a product growing in every game in Sam Weideman and for him to continue to influence games, the supply must be precise or at the very least to his advantage.

With Darcy Moore set to return for Collingwood, that presents a new challenge for the Demons to limit the All-Australian contender’s presence in the air.

Kicking efficiency in the forward half, and in particular the forward 50m, is the key thing the Demons must get right against the Magpies.

Collingwood won’t give up its possessions as easily and as often as North Melbourne did.

Both of these teams are struggling to get a percentage of scores inside 50m high enough to be competitive, with the Demons rating 38.4% of scores per inside 50m and the Pies 38.9%.

This game could come down to which team is more effective with their feet.

Melbourne has looked like a much better team since Sam Weideman’s return. Picture: Sarah Reed

FREMANTLE v CARLTON: STOP THE ROT, BLUES

Carlton’s leaders have to be better to identify when opposition teams are getting on top and putting in mechanisms to change momentum in games.

I’m talking about Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson and Ed Curnow.

Since Round 12 last year, the Blues have conceded five or more consecutive goals on 12 occasions – the second most of any side behind St Kilda (15).

They have a stable back six who have played a bit of footy together now, so there are no excuses for this to happen.

There are alternatives to slow the game down. You can go into a stoppage game or saturate stoppages or start playing a kick-mark game style, just to get the momentum back rather than trying to play at frenetic speed and make more mistakes.

You can’t always get the runner out there to tell you what to do.

The leaders should be able to identify what is required on the ground and put the practises in place that would have been rehearsed on the training track.

It’s time to change that narrative that frustrates Carlton supporters so much.

Is Patrick Cripps doing enough? Picture: Getty

NORTH MELBOURNE v BRISBANE: HIP, HIP, HOORAY

Was Eric Hipwood‘s five-goal haul against the Bulldogs the circuit breaker that he needs to be in the conversation as one of the game’s most dangerous forwards?

We’ll soon find out.

We talk about Tom Hawkins, Charlie Dixon and Josh Kennedy as the key forwards at the moment and it’s no surprise to see that their sides are locked into the top four at the moment.

The Lions need Hipwood to start making his mark on a more consistent basis.

Hipwood is still only 22, but he had averaged only 10 goals in his first 10 games this season, but showed what he is capable of against the Bulldogs.

I sometimes wonder whether he genuinely believes he belongs among the top echelon of the forwards in the game, but he has a great opportunity here to build on his recent performance when his confidence is high again.

At his best, Eric Hipwood is a seriously good player. Picture: Getty

He will always get a lick of the ice cream with the Lions. He will get plenty of supply, he just has to keep stepping up to the plate and delivering.

On a team level, the Lions need to become a better team at defending opposition transitions from their own forward 50m to the opposition‘s forward 50 and being scored against – they rank 18th at the moment.

It’s fixable but everyone must be on the same page, particularly the role of the wingers in Hugh McCluggage and Mitch Robinson. Knowing when to keep width to give defensive cover on the open side and when to squeeze the ground to challenge the opposition ball carrier is important when it comes to effective team defence.

MORE NEWS:

AFL fixture 2020: Winners and losers from Round 14-18 fixture

Riewoldt: Carlton’s young midfield brigade must step up to support Patrick Cripps

Deep dive: 13 reasons why Essendon is mired in mediocrity, but there is still hope

How Geelong tried but failed to lure Brownlow Medal contender Travis Boak from Port Adelaide

Originally published as Mick McGuane: Why Collingwood doesn’t want a close finish against Melbourne