Mick McGuane analyses Geelong’s AFL semi-final against West Coast
Chris Scott has copped criticism for leaving out ruckman Rhys Stanley against All-Australian big man Brodie Grundy. MICK MCGUANE says the Geelong coach has no choice but to swallow his pride and re-call his No. 1 ruck to face West Coast.
AFL News
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL News. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Chris Scott raised plenty of eyebrows when Geelong made a late change before Friday’s qualifying final against Collingwood.
The Cats dumped first-choice ruckman Rhys Stanley in favour of midfielder Sam Menegola, leaving Mark Blicavs to duel with All-Australian Brodie Grundy.
Scott said the decision to drop Stanley was based on predictions of rain which never eventuated.
But as his team prepares to face a dual combination of Nic Naitanui and Tom Hickey, McGuane said Stanley had to be recalled.
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE SACKED PODCAST
HOW THEY PLAY
The Eagles were allowed to play just the way they like against Essendon in their elimination final, recording 128 marks which took their record to 10-1 this season when recording 100-plus marks. They love to control the ball. But they also tend to step up their contested ball-winning in September, winning that count by 22 against the Bombers in their best result for the season. Contested ball is what it’s all about for the Cats and when they play their best football. Geelong clawed its way back into its qualifying final against Collingwood after winning contested ball by 25 in the second half. However they lost the uncontested possession count by 76 — something that has to be corrected, quickly.
WEST COAST
THE KEY
The Eagles have to go in with a focus of controlling stoppage. Because of the Nic Naitanui influence, West Coast kicked seven goals from centre bounce against Essendon which is an incredible return. With the six-six-six formation, if you get that stoppage control it instantly brings your forwards into the game — and the Eagles have some very handy forwards.
THE CHALLENGE
The Eagles won 78 intercept possessions against Essendon, their second-most in a match this year. They launched 66 points from those intercepts, their third-most recorded this season. Can they maintain that standard of play from back-half against Geelong, the No. 1 defensive team in the competition?
THE THEME
Call it road kill. The Eagles simply have to keep winning on the road now and face a tough ask with three trips to Melbourne in as many weeks if they are to go all the way this season. And when you’re on the road, it’s hit or be hit. You need to hit the contest hard from the start, gain the ascendancy through it and heap the pressure on the Geelong ball carrier.
IF I WAS WEST COAST …
I’d look to get Mark Hutchings to tag Tim Kelly. He played that role in Round 6 this year and I think he will have to play a significant role on Kelly or Patrick Dangerfield through the middle again. I’d also look at getting the high half-forwards up the ground and trying to score over the back. Willie Rioli, Liam Ryan, Jamie Cripps, Jake Waterman and Jack Darling all have great speed but also great tanks and moving them higher could unsettle the Geelong defence by creating space behind. I’d make it a race back to goals as much as I possibly can.
MORE FOOTY NEWS:
McGuane: Look out Lachie, GWS stopper is coming
A Richmond-Collingwood grand final shapes as a promoter’s dream and the hottest ticket in town
John Worsfold an ‘outsider’ at Bombers and may be a sitting duck, writes Mick Malthouse
GEELONG
THE KEY
Deny the interceptors. You simply can’t allow Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Tom Barrass and Brad Sheppard to do the same thing as what Collingwood’s Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe did last week, picking off 12 and 10 intercept possessions respectively. Rather than the highball going forward, the Cats have to look at a different mode of direction and move the ball with more speed. Keep bombing the ball inside-50 again and they’ll be out of finals in straight sets.
THE CHALLENGE
Once the Cats accept the key to the game is going to be stopping the intercept, the challenge is going to be converting their opportunities. Geelong scored from just 32 per cent of inside-50s against Collingwood. The Cats had been ranked No. 1 in that area all season. Scoreboard pressure that you apply even when the game isn’t going your way can keep you in the game. It’s essential.
THE THEME
Start well. Simple as that. The Cats have been outscored by 78 points in the first quarters of their past three finals. Geelong kicked just one goal in the opening quarter against Collingwood last week and had four kicked against them from stoppages. Backs to the wall in a do-or-die final after sitting atop of the ladder all year, the minds and bodies of the Cats players have to be up to absorb every possible challenge of this game right from the first bounce.
IF I WERE GEELONG ….
Bring ruckman Rhys Stanley back in and understand the mistake you made. It was a clearly questionable decision to play All-Australian defender Mark Blicavs in the ruck and it hurt the Cats’ badly in the backline. Stanley back in the ruck against Naitanui is a no-brainer and frees Blicavs to go back and play on Josh Kennedy, who found some form again against Essendon last week. I’d also throw Joel Selwood back in the thick of the contest early, rather than leaving him out on a wing. Yes, he’s slowed up a little bit. But one thing he has got is a competitive urgency about him — something the Cats need this week to start well.
PREDICTION: West Coast by 10 points
MATCH ODDS (TAB)
Geelong $1.75
West Coast $2.10
FLAG ODDS
Geelong $9
West Coast $8
INJURIES
WEST COAST
Jackson Nelson (head knock) test
Daniel Venables (concussion) season
Jarrod Brander (hamstring) season
GEELONG
Mitch Duncan (knee) test
Jordan Clark (elbow) test
Jordan Cunico (ankle) season
Originally published as Mick McGuane analyses Geelong’s AFL semi-final against West Coast