Herald Sun tipping champion Chris Cavanagh’s keys to winning your office competition in unique AFL season
It’s been so long since Round 1 you may have forgotten there’s a tipping competition that needs to be won. Even though the season won’t look the same, Herald Sun tipping champ Chris Cavanagh reveals how you can win.
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The footy is not the only competition resuming this week.
Tipping comps are also back and bragging rights are now at stake after months at home in isolation.
Two-time Herald Sun footy tipping winner Chris Cavanagh is the best in the business when it comes to finding winners.
Here are his nine tips to success in a unique 2020 season.
1. Back in more experienced teams
In an entirely different AFL season, there are some serious challenges that are going to be presented for teams.
Those sides with experience and strong leadership – both on-field and off-field – should be the teams that will be best prepared to meet those challenges.
Examples of those teams are sides like West Coast, Richmond, Geelong and Collingwood – who have all had stable squads and the same senior coach for some time.
On the flip side, it could be easy for inexperienced sides and teams with new coaches to struggle this year – even more than usual.
Think Gold Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide and Carlton.
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2. Carefully consider the venue
Most “home” games aren’t going to count for much this season, at least in the short term.
The absence of crowds will mean there are no one-sided cheers from the stands, which can lift a home team, help put doubt in the minds of the opposition side and potentially even sway the umpiring decisions.
Have a close look at the fixture, too, before lodging your tips.
For example, Port Adelaide has a “home” game against West Coast in Round 4 but the match is in fact at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast – a completely neutral venue.
Home ground advantage is still relevant in some cases, though.
Richmond clearly plays and defends the MCG well, while the fast track of Marvel Stadium suits the likes of Essendon and St Kilda better than the MCG does.
But football’s biggest home ground advantage this year is likely to be Geelong at GMHBA Stadium given the skinny dimensions of the ground.
Since 2017, the Cats have won 88 per cent of games at the venue.
3. Pick a lower margin
In most tipping competitions, you are going to have to pick a margin for one game a week, which will separate tipsters in the case of a tie come the end of the season.
This season, be sure to pick a margin that is a bit lower than you normally might.
With quarter lengths being reduced 20 per cent to 16 minutes plus time-on this season, expect games to be closer.
Six of the nine games in Round 1 were decided by 28 points or less and three of those were by six points or less.
4. Tip against your own team, sometimes
Had you been a Gold Coast Suns supporter last season and put blind faith in your team every week you would have potentially missed out on 19 correct tips given the Suns won just three games for the year.
That could be the difference between winning your office tipping competition and collecting the wooden spoon, just as the Suns did in 2019.
Tip with your head, not your heart.
6. Check recent form, not just the ladder
After Round 21 last year, Geelong was on top of the ladder.
However, the Cats were not going as well as that ranking suggested.
They entered a Round 22 clash with Brisbane having won just four of their past eight games, after an 11-1 start to the season.
The Lions, on the other hand, sat second on the ladder but were in red-hot form having won eight-straight games.
Brisbane beat Geelong when the two teams met in that Round 22 clash.
Recent form is a better indicator of how a team is tracking than the ladder.
7. Take hoodoos into account
Every club has a bogey side they always struggle against no matter how well they are going.
It can be hard to explain why at times, but it is a thing.
For example, did you know Brisbane has not beaten Richmond since Round 7, 2009?
Gold Coast Suns have never beaten Adelaide from 13 encounters in their history, while Melbourne has lost 18 of its past 19 games against North Melbourne dating back to 2007.
Checking the past few games between two teams can help give you a picture of how their next game might play out.
8. Don’t put in your tips before teams drop
If you can, wait until Thursday night or Friday to enter your tips — except for any Thursday night games, of course.
Which players are lining up on any given week can have a big impact, especially on those toss-of-the-coin contests.
A couple of key players out of one side and a couple of key ins for another side may change your thinking.
9. Don’t forget to put in your tips
Most tipping competitions will give automatically give you the ‘away’ teams if you forget to put in your tips one week. You do not want them.
Last year, they won just 44 per cent of the time.
In a full nine-game round, that equates to less than 4 out of 9 correct tips, on average.
Flipping a coin can do better than that.
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Originally published as Herald Sun tipping champion Chris Cavanagh’s keys to winning your office competition in unique AFL season