Run home: The games your club needs to win in the run to finals

NINE teams can still finish in the top four and the Demons, Swans and even Collingwood could miss the finals if everything goes wrong from here. And Essendon isn’t out of it. Seriously.

NINE teams can still finish in the top four and the Demons, Swans and even Collingwood could miss the finals if everything goes wrong from here.

For some (memo: Melbourne) their finals destiny is in their own hands, while others (hello, Geelong) need results to go their way.

SUPERLADDER: FIGHT FOR TOP FOUR HEATS UP

THE TACKLE: ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES FROM ROUND 21

MASSIVE LOSS: NORTH’S SEASON COMES CRASHING DOWN

There are still 11 teams that can make the finals and Essendon’s task isn’t as impossible as you think — if they can find a way to beat Richmond at the MCG.

We’ve crunched the numbers on every contender. Scroll down to see how high and low your team can finish. Then buckle in for a grandstand finish.

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1. RICHMOND 64 // 139.7

v Essendon (MCG)

v Western Bulldogs (MCG)

BEST CASE: Win both and cruise into a home qualifying final. Can probably rest a couple of players along the way.

WORST CASE: Would have to lose both and somehow give up a 16 per cent gap in percentage to the Eagles to lose top spot.

2. WEST COAST 60 // 123.4%

v Melbourne (Perth)

v Brisbane (Gabba)

BEST CASE: Mathematically possible to finish top but realistically can lock in second, and a final in Perth in week one, with one more win. Amazing effort given their injury and suspension issues.

WORST CASE: Lose both and fall behind GWS. If the margins are big they could drop out of the top four but that seems extremely unlikely.

3. GWS GIANTS 54 // 120.4

v Sydney (SS)

v Melbourne (MCG)

BEST CASE: Win both and they finish third. Can lose both and still finish in the top four but only if two of Hawthorn and Collingwood go winless from here and Melbourne and Port Adelaide win no more than one of their two remaining games.

WORST CASE: If the Giants fail to beat Sydney or Melbourne they could fall as low as eighth but a fifth or sixth-place finish is the most likely outcome in that scenario. Win one game and they can only miss the double chance if the Hawks, Pies and Swans all get another eight points.

Will injuries, including a season-ending knee blow for Heath Shaw, catch up with GWS?

4. HAWTHORN 52 // 121.4

v St Kilda (ES)

v Sydney (SCG)

BEST CASE: Two wins locks in top four and possibly third spot if GWS loses one of its final two games — or second if the Eagles fall in a heap.

WORST CASE: Almost impossible to see them losing to the Saints but if the planets align they could finish as low as seventh. More realistically, a loss to the Swans could cost them the double chance but they’ll play an elimination final at the MCG.

5. COLLINGWOOD 52 // 118.3

v Port Adelaide (MCG)

v Fremantle (Perth)

BEST CASE: The injury list is growing but the Pies’ system is strong. Two more wins means 15 for the year — an outstanding result — and a top-four spot if either Hawthorn or GWS drop a game (or they overtake the Hawks on percentage).

WORST CASE: Two losses would be a huge shock but if everything goes wrong Collingwood can still miss the eight. One defeat would still be bad with a seventh-place finish a genuine possibility — if the Swans win both their games and the Dees can find one more victory.

6. SYDNEY 52 // 109.7

v GWS Giants (SS)

v Hawthorn (SCG)

BEST CASE: Two wins gets them to 15 which could earn John Longmire’s men third spot, but the Giants, Hawks and Pies would all have to stumble. If they beat the Giants and the Pies or Hawks drop one, the Swans can sneak into fourth.

WORST CASE: Two tough games and some injuries could still catch up with Sydney. A poor percentage means Melbourne, Port, the Cats and even North Melbourne can all go past them. Still need one more win to secure another September appearance.

7. MELBOURNE 48 // 130.5

v West Coast (Perth)

v GWS Giants (MCG)

BEST CASE: A big percentage has the Demons in a good position — if they can win those games. Need the Swans to beat GWS and Hawthorn and Collingwood to lose a game and they can still earn the double chance. But, as Chris Scott would say, a lot has to go right from here.

WORST CASE: Look away now, Demon fans. Lose both of their final two games and it’s another September without finals, with Geelong almost certain to overtake them along with one of Port (with one more win), North Melbourne or Essendon (two). If all of that happens, they could finish 11th. One win should be enough to end the finals drought — unless Port Adelaide wins both its games and Geelong wallops Fremantle and Gold Coast by record margins.

8. PORT ADELAIDE 48 // 113.9%

v Collingwood (MCG)

v Essendon (AO)

BEST CASE: Finals fate is in the Power’s hands. Win both and they could steal a remarkable top-four spot but only if everyone above them falls over. More likely is fifth or sixth and a home elimination final.

W ORST CASE: Two more losses and its curtains. Even one loss is likely to end their finals run unless the Cats lose to either Fremantle or Gold Coast.

9. GEELONG 44 // 117.2

v Fremantle (GMHBA)

v Gold Coast (GMHBA)

BEST CASE: Barrack for the Pies this weekend. If they knock off Port the Cats will play finals if they win the games they should. Could finish as high as sixth if Melbourne and the Swans also lose their last two, which isn’t out of the question.

WORST CASE: Lose either of their last two and they need Port Adelaide to lose both to get in. But a bigger nightmare would be two wins and a ninth-place finish which is possible if Port scores two surprise wins and the Dees get at least one more.

10. NORTH MELBOURNE 44 // 109.1

v Adelaide (AO)

v St Kilda (ES)

BEST CASE: Can overtake Port if they win both their games and the Power drops one. That gets them to ninth. Best hope from there is to sneak past the Swans on percentage if Sydney loses both, which could definitely happen.

WORST CASE: Drop one game and the only way they can play finals is if Port cops two hammerings to fall behind the Roos on percentage. Lose both and the could drop to 12th.

North Melbourne shot itself in the foot yesterday.

11. ESSENDON 44 // 104.8

v Richmond (MCG)

v Port Adelaide (AO)

BEST CASE: How much do you believe, Bomber fans? Need to knock off the Tigers and Port Adelaide, which gets Essendon to 52 points. From there North Melbourne has to lose at least one of its final two games, ditto Geelong, Melbourne have to lose both and so does Port Adelaide - or lose one by a humungous margin. If all but one of those puzzle pieces fall into place a back door way into the eight could be overtaking the Swans on percentage.

WORST CASE: Lose to Richmond or Port and they can start looking to 2019.

12. ADELAIDE 40 // 97.9

v North Melbourne (AO)

v Carlton (ES)

BEST CASE: This one blew up the calculator. We’re putting a line through last year’s Grand Finalist.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

THE LADDER

1. Richmond 64 139.7

2. West Coast 60 123.4

3. GWS Giants 54 120.4

4. Hawthorn 52 121.2

5. Collingwood 52 118.3

6. Sydney 52 109.7

7. Melbourne 48 130.5

8. Port Adelaide 48 113.9

9. Geelong 44 117.2

10. North Melbourne 44 109.1

11. Essendon 44 104.8

12. Adelaide 40 97.9

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Originally published as Run home: The games your club needs to win in the run to finals