Collingwood, Melbourne should be higher on the ladder based on Champion Data’s ‘expected scores’ system
COLLINGWOOD should really be knocking on the door of the top eight but another Melbourne club has also paid a high price because of its goalkicking woes. How does your team rate?
MAYBE Tim Watson wasn’t exaggerating when he declared earlier in the week Collingwood will play finals this year.
The Magpies’ second win of the season has momentarily eased the pressure on their coach, but Nathan Buckley’s team should really be knocking on the door of the top eight.
That is according to Champion Data’s “expected scores” ladder — the score your team should have kicked based on goalkicking difficulty.
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Under this method, Collingwood should be sitting 4-2, and outside the eight on percentage, had it kicked its “expected score” against the Western Bulldogs in Round 2 and Essendon on Anzac Day.
But the Pies aren’t the only team who have kicked themselves out of games.
Frustrated Melbourne fans will think their team should be entrenched in the top four, and they would be justified with the stats confirming the Demons should have put away Geelong in Round 3 and Fremantle the week after.
Melbourne kicked 13.19 to Geelong’s 20.6, and 15.14 to Fremantle’s 16.10.
Expected scores are determined by whether a shot at goal is expected to be kicked based on the AFL average.
For example, if your side had 10 shots from 20m directly in front, it would be expected to convert every one. If they were taken from the boundary, then 10 behinds would be most likely.
All up, Champion Data says eight games in the opening six rounds should have been reversed.
The Western Bulldogs were involved in four of them for two wins and two losses, so Dogs fans can’t moan too much about losing to GWS last Friday night, although Giants will be counting their lucky stars. A loss would have seen them tumble out of the top four.
Fremantle is the big winner, winning games against the Bulldogs and Melbourne it should have lost.
GAMES WHERE RESULT SHOULD HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT
EXPECTED SCORES LADDER (at Round 6)
But Champion Data’s “expected scores” system doesn’t just measure wins and losses. It also scrutinises the points discrepancy in each game and what each club’s for and against should be.
This is revealed in the table below.
Adelaide is the No.1 attacking team in the competition by a long way, but the Crows’ phenomenal goalkicking has helped them to an extra two goals — 14 points to be more precise — a game.
Geelong is in the same boat, kicking 12 points more than expected.
Compare that to the Western Bulldogs, who have shortchanged themselves 12 points a game because of bad kicking in front of goal.
West Coast may have a bully boy reputation, but the opposition have done themselves no favours by kicking 7.7 points less against the Eagles because of their inaccuracy.
On the flip side, rivals have scored a bonus 8.8 points a game against Gold Coast by nailing difficult chances.
*Stats supplied by Champion Data
Originally published as Collingwood, Melbourne should be higher on the ladder based on Champion Data’s ‘expected scores’ system