Chris Cavanagh looks at the biggest questions each club must answer heading into finals
IF HAWTHORN is to spring a qualifying final upset it must not only overcome Richmond’s imfamous pressure game but its backline ball hawks. See the big questions facing each team ahead of finals.
CAN the Magpies cause an upset in the west?
What is Alastair Clarkson’s big plan to topple Damien Hardwick?
Is Buddy fit enough to make a mark on September?
Which Melbourne will show up in finals?
MICK MALTHOUSE: MY TAKE ON FINALS COACHES
BYE WEEK: IS THIS THE TIME FOR STATE OF ORIGIN?
OLD MATES: WHY DUSTY HAD TO BLOCK BEN’S CALLS
There are plenty of big questions ahead of a massive weekend of AFL finals. In anticipation, CHRIS CAVANAGH answers the most important ones for each team.
RICHMOND v HAWTHORN
MCG, THURSDAY 7.20PM
RICHMOND
WILL THE TIGERS’ FAMED PRESSURE RETURN?
RICHMOND’S method and successful finals campaign last year was all built around pressure, but that pressure has dropped off late in the season. Since Round 17 the Tigers ranked 14th for pressure and lost the pressure count against Western Bulldogs and Essendon in their past two matches — both were victories. Coach Damien Hardwick acknowledged last Wednesday it was a bit of a concern but added his side had “been winning the ball back anyway”. Richmond would want to lift in that area in September, though, if it is to again reach the pinnacle.
WHO ARE THE UNLUCKY OMISSIONS?
IT happens at this time every year but there looks set to be some serious heartbreak on the horizon for a couple of Tigers. With premiership players Kane Lambert and Dan Butler, who are both on the way back from ankle complaints, pushing to return against the Hawks, there are likely to be one or two unlucky players left out. Reece Conca has not done a lot wrong but he could make way for Lambert, while Jack Higgins has been super in playing 18 games on debut this year but may have to make way for Butler. Remarkably, those changes would leave Richmond with 21 premiership players in its side, with Jacob Townsend (ankle) the only one missing and Jayden Short in his place.
HAWTHORN
WILL CLARKO’S PLAN WORK?
WE’RE not stupid enough to think Alastair Clarkson outlined his full blueprint on how to beat the Tigers on Fox Footy last week, but he did reveal part of the plan. The master coach said to beat Richmond you needed to stop the “buggers” in the backline marking it. Those buggers are none other than Alex Rance, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin, who combined to help Richmond set an AFL record for the most intercept marks in a season of 417. If the Hawks can avoid them, or at least make sure the ball hits the ground, they will go a long way to challenging.
WILL MITCHELL BE ALLOWED TO ROAM FREE?
RICHMOND coach Damien Hardwick has indicated he will back in his system to beat Hawthorn, which sounds like Tom Mitchell will not receive too much close attention. While Hardwick acknowledged last week the Brownlow Medal favourite was a “terrific player” and said he would have back-up plans to combat him, there are too many quality Hawks to just focus on stopping one. If that is the case, a big game from Mitchell could be key to an upset Hawthorn victory. The onballer had 42 disposals, 11 clearances and kicked a goal against Richmond the last time the sides met in Round 3.
EARLY TIP
HAWTHORN enters this game in better form on the back of six-straight wins, but the Tigers’ record of 21 straight victories at the MCG is hard to ignore and you feel they have another gear to rise up to. Richmond by 20 points.
MELBOURNE v GEELONG
MCG, FRIDAY 7.50PM
MELBOURNE
WILL A LACK OF FINALS EXPERIENCE HURT?
BASED on their Round 23 side, the Demons have just four players who have ever been on the big stage in September — Jordan Lewis, Nathan Jones, Michael Hibberd and Jake Melksham. Between them, those four have 27 finals games under their belts — just one more than Geelong skipper Joel Selwood has on his own. Four-time Hawthorn premiership player Lewis will be valuable for the playing group this week, but can all the inexperienced youth step up? Time will tell, but they have over the past two games by finishing the regular season with strong victories over fellow finalists West Coast and Greater Western Sydney.
WILL JACK VINEY RETURN?
THE Melbourne co-captain has played just seven games this year after also finishing 2017 early because of injury. Viney missed most of pre-season, and then the first eight rounds, after having surgery to relieve plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He then has been sidelined again since Round 16 with a foot stress injury. At his best, Viney is a star, a bull who is built for finals with his contested ball-winning ability and clearance work. His return would be a major boost for the Demons. But it will have been 62 days between games for the 24-year-old. Is it worth the risk to bring him straight back in?
GEELONG
CAN THE “BIG FOUR” RISE ABOVE?
GEELONG’S premiership odds were trimmed after the club landed favourite son Gary Ablett Jnr during last year’s trade period, with many believing Ablett would help create an almost unstoppable midfield alongside Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan. That has not quite been the case. The Cats rank fourth in the AFL for clearances and sixth for inside-50s, but there is a view that their defensive pressure is not always up to scratch, former Geelong star Billy Brownless last month labelling the Cats’ midfield “lazy”. The “Big Four” has oodles of finals experience. Can they deliver when it is most needed?
ARE THE CATS CONTENDERS OR PRETENDERS?
WE’LL find out soon enough. It has been hard to get a clear read on Geelong this season, such has been their inconsistent nature. In the last nine rounds the Cats lost to Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Richmond and Hawthorn. Yet they beat Sydney, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions and thumped lowly Fremantle and Gold Coast by a combined 235 points in the last two rounds. Against fellow finalists this season Geelong has a 5-6 record which is also so-so, but all six of those losses have been by 18 points or less, suggesting the Cats are within striking distance of doing some serious damage if they can find their best form.
EARLY TIP
A GENUINE flip-of-the-coin game, but Geelong has already beaten Melbourne twice this year. Maybe it just has the wood on the Demons. Geelong by 6.
SYDNEY v GWS GIANTS
SCG, SATURDAY 4.20PM
SYDNEY
HOW WILL BUDDY GO?
TWO-part question here — with a question mark over Lance Franklin’s fitness and his main knock being his performances in finals to date. It has been no secret that the superstar forward has barely trained this year and he missed the club’s Round 23 loss to Hawthorn with a groin complaint. The bye week would no doubt have helped. Franklin averages three goals per game across his 23 finals which is seriously good, but his past four finals have delivered just seven goals and he has two goalless games among his past six finals. Ominously for the Giants, Franklin bagged 5.4 from 16 disposals when the Swans beat GWS in Round 22.
CAN THE SWANS WIN AT THE SCG?
ONCE a happy hunting ground for Sydney, the SCG has strangely become anything but this year. The Swans have won just five of 11 games at the venue in 2018 after winning 36 of their previous 45. This year’s SCG return is a stark contrast to an away win-loss record of 9-2, which really is a bizarre and unexplained set of numbers. Only five of those 11 home encounters have been against fellow top-eight sides and the Swans were even beaten at the SCG by Gold Coast which finished 17th.
THIS YEAR
THE Swans have won the past three meetings between the two sides including victories in Round 3 (16 points) and Round 22 (20 points) this year. But this do-or-die clash should have a vastly different look. Callum Mills was best afield in Round 3, but the Swan’s season has since been ended by a foot injury. Sydney forward Sam Reid was also handy with two goals in that match, but he’s still making tentative steps back from an Achilles injury in the NEAFL. Then in Round 22, the Giants were hobbled by in-game injuries to Phil Davis, Ryan Griffen, Jeremy Finlayson and Daniel Lloyd and could not hold on to a two-goal three-quarter-time lead. Expect a healthier Giants list to face the Swans, with Toby Greene the wildcard. The exquisitely talented forward missed both games against Sydney this year.
GWS
HOW MANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE?
THE Giants look set to have as many as six senior players who will put their hand up to return from injury, but how many of them will coach Leon Cameron pick? Toby Greene is an automatic inclusion if given the all clear to return from a hamstring problem, but Brett Deledio, Aidan Corr, Matt de Boer, Ryan Griffen and Matt Flynn might all have nervous waits until the team is named on Thursday night. Cameron has said too many changes can be dangerous and he will be seeking the “best mix” possible to line up.
CAN THE GIANTS TURN AROUND THEIR FORM?
IT has not been the best lead-in to finals for GWS, losing to fellow premiership contenders Sydney (20 points) and Melbourne (45 points) in the final two rounds of the home-and-away campaign. Alarmingly, the Giants kicked just eight goals in each of those two games despite having solid inside-50 counts of 49 and 50. Toby Greene’s return would help that forward connection enormously, given he is arguably the side’s most important player and has kicked 13 goals from just seven games this season, but the side also needs a lift from big key-forward Jeremy Cameron. Cameron has not looked the same since returning from his five-game suspension and has booted just four goals from his past three matches.
CASUALTY LIST
Sydney
Callum Mills (foot) season
Nick Smith (hamstring) 4 weeks
Lewis Melican (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Sam Naismith (knee) season
Lance Franklin (groin) test
Luke Parker (groin) test
Harry Marsh (hamstring) test
GWS Giants
Matt de Boer (hamstring) test
Brett Deledio (calf) test
Toby Greene (hamstring) test
Ryan Griffen (hamstring) test
Aidan Corr (groin) test
Matt Flynn (quad) test
Jonathon Patton (knee) season
Tom Scully (ankle) season
Heath Shaw (knee) season
Dawson Simpson (ankle) 5 weeks
EARLY TIP
THE Swans have won both games against the Giants this year by 20 and 16 points and have a better looking form-line than GWS having won three of their past four games, all of which have been against finalists. Sydney by 18.
WEST COAST v COLLINGWOOD
PERTH STADIUM, SATURDAY 8.10PM
WEST COAST
WILL JOSH KENNEDY PLAY?
IT’S looking more and more likely, but word out of West Coast is there is still a couple of hurdles to clear this week as the key forward bids to return from a shin complaint. Kennedy has managed only 11 games this year, having also had ankle problems, but his impact in them has been huge. He has 34 goals to his name and kicked multiple majors in all but one match, with the Eagles holding a 10-1 record when he has been in the side. Kennedy’s return would take some heat off fellow key forward Jack Darling and further stretch an already undersized and inexperienced Collingwood defence.
HOW MUCH IMPACT WILL THE HOME GROUND HAVE?
THE Eagles have not been unbeatable at Perth Stadium this year but they have been pretty good. They hold a 9-3 record at the venue but six of those wins have come against sides that missed finals. From those 12 games, West Coast has a percentage of 126, having averaged 101 points per game. But there were losses to Sydney (29 points), Essendon (28 points) and Melbourne (17 points) so the Magpies must consider themselves a chance. The free kick count is always interesting to monitor for West Coast home games, with the Eagles ranked second on the free kick differential ladder this year.
EARLIER THIS YEAR
IT was the Nic Nat game. Towering West Coast ruckman Nic Naitanui injured his “good” right knee against Collingwood in Round 17, ending his season. But while Naitanui sat out the second half on the bench, his team powered to an emphatic 35-point win to end the Magpies’ seven-match winning streak. Defender Jeremy McGovern was best afield for the Eagles with seven intercept marks while the Eagles’ high-octane attack of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Willie Rioli combined for nine goals. The Pies were without Mason Cox and Adam Treloar, while the Eagles have since lost classy midfielder Andrew Gaff to suspension.
COLLINGWOOD
WHO RETURNS?
HIGH-flying defender Jeremy Howe has declared himself a certain starter for what will be his first finals match after 158 games. He’s overcome a corked thigh which had sidelined him since Round 19. But there is less certainty around Adam Treloar (hamstring), Darcy Moore (hamstring) and Tyson Goldsack (knee). Treloar is said to have been “knocking the door down” for a few weeks but will have a couple more tests to pass this week. How strong is Treloar’s match fitness having not played since Round 14 on June 24? Moore would be a welcome return but the Magpies would be reluctant if there is any risk given his history of hamstring issues and Goldsack could come into consideration after playing two VFL games.
CAN GRUNDY DOMINATE THE RUCK?
WHAT’S the best way to stop West Coast forward duo Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling? Don’t let the Eagles get the footy into attack. Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy — who won the Herald Sun’s Player of the Year Award — has been super this year and will again have a key role to play in his battle with Scott Lycett. Grundy ranks second in the competition for hit-outs to advantage and had 30 hit-outs to Lycett’s 17 last time the sides met in Round 17. If Grundy can give the Magpies’ midfield first use again, it will go a long way towards securing a famous away finals victory.
EARLY TIP
COLLINGWOOD holds a 4-1 record on the road this season and scored a last-round win over Fremantle at Perth Stadium but this is a big ask for a young side playing a big final on the road. West Coast by 18.
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Originally published as Chris Cavanagh looks at the biggest questions each club must answer heading into finals