AFL run home: Which teams will finish top four and make the top eight
It’s still a long shot — but Carlton’s finals hopes are alive after a thrilling win over Sydney. Could the Blues steal a top-eight berth as other finals contenders falter? Here’s what they must do play finals and the scenarios facing every side.
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The battle is on for spots in the top-four and the top eight with only two-and-a-half rounds remaining in the home-and-away season.
If you thought you had it figured out Round 16 results have tipped predictions out the window with the Bulldogs upsetting Weest Coast and Melbourne stumbling against Fremantle.
So, who will make it?
Richmond can finish as high as first but also as low as sixth, Carlton can still play finals — if a lot of things go their way — and Collingwood is definitely not safe.
While going on the Giants’ performance against Adelaide, alarm bells are ringing in Sydney.
We’ve done the maths — here’s a look at where things stand and all the most likely scenarios that could play out for every finals contender.
PORT ADELAIDE
(Currently 1st, 48 points, 12-3-0)
To play: Essendon, Collingwood
MOST LIKELY
– Finish on top as minor premier with wins over Essendon and Collingwood.
POSSIBLE
– Finish second if the Power lose to one of Essendon or Collingwood AND Geelong beats Richmond and Sydney.
– Finish third if the Power lose to one of Essendon or Collingwood AND Geelong beats Richmond and Sydney AND Brisbane beats Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
WORST CASE
– Finish fourth if the Power lose to both Essendon and Collingwood AND Richmond beats Geelong and Adelaide AND Geelong beats Sydney AND Brisbane beats at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
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GEELONG
(2nd, 44 points, 11-4-0)
To play: Richmond, Sydney
MOST LIKELY
– Finish third if the Cats beat Richmond and Sydney AND Port Adelaide beats Essendon and Collingwood AND Brisbane beats Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
POSSIBLE
– Finish second if the Cats beat Richmond and Sydney AND Port Adelaide beats Essendon and Collingwood AND Brisbane loses to one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
– Finish on top if the Cats beat Richmond and Sydney AND Port Adelaide loses to one of Essendon and Collingwood AND Brisbane loses to one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
– Finish fourth if the Cats lose to Richmond but beat Sydney AND Port Adelaide wins at least one of its last two matches against Essendon and Collingwood AND Richmond beats Adelaide AND Brisbane beats at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
WORST CASE
– Finish fifth if the Cats lose to Richmond and Sydney AND Brisbane beats at least one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND West Coast beats St Kilda and North Melbourne.
BRISBANE LIONS
(3rd, 44 points, 11-3-0)
To play: Gold Coast, Sydney, Carlton
MOST LIKELY
– Finish second if the Lions beat Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide beat Essendon and Collingwood.
POSSIBLE
– Finish on top if the Lions beat Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide loses to one of Essendon and Collingwood.
– Finish third if the Lions lose to one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide beats at least one of Essendon and Collingwood AND Geelong beats Richmond and Sydney.
– Finish fifth if the Lions lose to at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Richmond beats Geelong and Adelaide AND Geelong beats Sydney AND West Coast beats St Kilda and North Melbourne.
WORST CASE
– Finish sixth if the Lions lose their last to Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Richmond beats one of Geelong and Adelaide AND St Kilda beats West Coast and Greater Western Sydney AND West Coast beats North Melbourne.
RICHMOND
(4th, 42 points, 10-4-1)
To play: Geelong, Adelaide
MOST LIKELY
– Finish fifth if the Tigers lose to Geelong but beat Adelaide AND Brisbane beats at least one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND West Coast beats St Kilda and North Melbourne.
POSSIBLE
– Finish second if the Tigers beat Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane loses to at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide beats at least one of Essendon and Collingwood.
– Finish third if the Tigers beat Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane beats at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide beats at least one of Essendon and Collingwood.
– Finish on top if Tigers beat Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane loses to at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Port Adelaide loses to Essendon and Collingwood.
WORST CASE
-Finish sixth if the Tigers lose to Geelong and Adelaide AND St Kilda beats West Coast and Greater Western Sydney AND West Coast beats North Melbourne.
WEST COAST
(5th, 40 points, 10-5-0)
To play: St Kilda, North Melbourne
MOST LIKELY
– Finish fourth if the Eagles beat St Kilda and North Melbourne AND Richmond lose to one of Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane beats at least one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Geelong beats at least one of Richmond and Sydney.
POSSIBLE
– Finish fifth if the Eagles beat St Kilda and North Melbourne AND Richmond beats Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane beats at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Geelong beats Sydney.
– Finish fourth if the Eagles beat St Kilda and North Melbourne AND Richmond beats Geelong and Adelaide AND Brisbane loses at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Geelong beats Sydney.
– Finish third if Eagles beat St Kilda and North Melbourne AND Richmond beats Geelong and Adelaide and Brisbane loses at least two of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton AND Geelong loses to Sydney.
– Finish fifth if the Eagles beat St Kilda but lose to North Melbourne AND Richmond beats at least one of Geelong and Adelaide and Brisbane beats at least one of Gold Coast, Sydney and Carlton.
– Finish sixth if the Eagles lose to St Kilda and North Melbourne AND St Kilda beat Greater Western Sydney AND Collingwood lose to at least one of Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.
WORST CASE
– Finish seventh if the Eagles lose to St Kilda and North Melbourne AND St Kilda beats Greater Western Sydney AND Collingwood beats Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.
ST KILDA
(6th, 36 points, 9-6-0)
To play: West Coast, GWS Giants
MOST LIKELY
— Finish in either sixth or seventh position, depending on result against Greater Western Sydney
— Win one of last two games and not lose the other by more than 10 goals to secure finals berth
POSSIBLE
— Could finish fourth if St Kilda defeats both West Coast and the Giants AND the Eagles lose to North Melbourne, AND Richmond loses to Geelong and Adelaide
— Can still make the finals without another win IF Collingwood loses both of its remaining games, GWS loses to Melbourne (and the Demons lose to Essendon), OR the Western Bulldogs lose one of their remaining matches
WORST CASE
— Could finish ninth if they lose to both West Coast and Greater Western Sydney AND:
– Collingwood wins one of its last two games,
– GWS defeats Melbourne at the Gabba in Round 17,
– Western Bulldogs defeats Hawthorn and Fremantle
COLLINGWOOD
(Currently 7th, 34 points, 8-6-1)
To play: Gold Coast, Port Adelaide
MOST LIKELY
— Defeats Gold Coast and loses to Port Adelaide to finish eighth IF Western Bulldogs lose at least one of their remaining games
POSSIBLE
— Could finish fourth IF miracle results go their way. Richmond loses to Adelaide, West Coast loses to North Melbourne and Collingwood wins both remaining games AND St Kilda loses both remaining games
WORST CASE
— Could finish ninth, IF they lose one of their remaining two games AND the Giants defeat Melbourne AND Western Bulldogs win both remaining games against Hawthorn and Fremantle
GWS GIANTS
(8th, 32 points, 8-7-0)
To play: Melbourne, St Kilda
MOST LIKELY
8th: Will finish eighth if it wins both remaining games against Melbourne and St Kilda.
POSSIBLE
7th: Defeat both St Kilda and Melbourne, and the Saints lose to West Coast.
8th: Win both remaining games but the Saints lose to West Coast.
9th: Win both remaining games and St Kilda beats West Coast and Collingwood beats Port Adelaide.
WORST CASE
12th: Could be as low as 12th if they lose both remaining games and Essendon wins both remaining games and St Kilda defeats West Coast and Western Bulldogs win both its final two games and Collingwood wins both remaining games and Carlton wins both its remaining games.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
(9th, 32 points, 8-7-0)
To play: Hawthorn, Fremantle
MOST LIKELY
— Finish seventh if they win both games AND St Kilda loses both of its remaining games AND Melbourne loses to Greater Western Sydney in Round 17
POSSIBLE
— Finish eighth if they win both games AND Collingwood wins both of its remaining games AND St Kilda defeats Greater Western Sydney in Round 18
WORST CASE
— Could finish as low as 11th if the Dogs lose to Hawthorn and Fremantle AND Greater Western Sydney wins both of its remaining games AND Melbourne wins one of its last two games AND Carlton wins two of its last two games
MELBOURNE
(10th, 28 points, 7-8-0)
To play: GWS Giants, Essendon
MOST LIKELY
— Fall short against Greater Western Sydney in Round 17 but beats Essendon in Round 18 to finish 10th
POSSIBLE
— Defeats GWS and Essendon AND Collingwood loses both remaining games, leaving Demons in eighth
— Can finish seventh if they win both remaining games AND St Kilda loses both remaining games AND Western Bulldogs lose both remaining games AND Collingwood loses both remaining games
— Can finish sixth if Demons win both remaining games AND St Kilda loses both remaining games AND Western Bulldogs lose both remaining games AND Collingwood loses both remaining games AND Greater Western Sydney loses to Adelaide and beats St Kilda
WORST CASE
— Lose both remaining games and finish as low as 14th, depending on other results
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ESSENDON
(11th, 26 points, 6-8-1)
To play: Port Adelaide, Melbourne
MOST LIKELY
— Loses both remaining games and finish 14th
POSSIBLE
— Defeats Melbourne in Round 18 and could finish 11th
— Wins both remaining games AND Greater Western Sydney lose all remaining games to finish 12th
— Could finish eighth if all results go their way, including winning both remaining games by huge margins AND Greater Western Sydney loses all remaining games AND Collingwood loses both remaining games by 10-goal-plus margins
WORST CASE
— Finish 15th by losing remaining games AND Gold Coast defeats Collingwood AND Sydney wins all three remaining games AND Carlton defeats Adelaide in Round 17
CARLTON
(11th, 28 points, 7-8-0)
To play: Adelaide, Brisbane Lions
MOST LIKELY
11th: Lose one of its last two remaining games — likely against Brisbane — and just miss out on finals, depending on other results.
POSSIBLE
7th: Can finish seventh if Carlton wins both remaining games and GWS loses to St Kilda and Collingwood loses both remaining games and Western Bulldogs lose to both Hawthorn and Fremantle.
8th: Can finish eighth if Carlton wins both remaining games and GWS loses to St Kilda and Collingwood loses both remaining games.
WORST CASE
15th: Lose all three games and don’t even get a look-in, finishing as low as 15th.
*All calculations dependent on margins
Originally published as AFL run home: Which teams will finish top four and make the top eight