AFL over/under projections for 2018: How many games will your club win?
WILL your club rise above expectations in 2018 or crash out when the going gets tough? We’ve crunched the numbers and reviewed every club’s projected win tally. SEE THE RESULTS HERE
THE numbers are in and it’s not pretty reading if you’re a Carlton fan.
TAB has released its 2018 projected wins for all 18 AFL teams, with the leading bookmaker placing Carlton in a head to head battle for the wooden spoon with Gold Coast.
The duo has been set an over/under win tally of 6.5.
Both teams won six games last year but with Gary Ablett leaving the Suns and Bryce Gibbs farewelling the Blues, neither club is expected to climb the ladder.
SEE OUR PROJECTIONS FOR EVERY TEAM BELOW
According to TAB, North Melbourne and Brisbane will again be in the bottom four, with their projections just one game higher at 7.5.
Fremantle and interestingly St Kilda are the only other teams projected to win in single figures.
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The 2018 season is viewed as make or break for the Saints who have not played finals since 2011.
At the other end of the scale, Sydney and Adelaide have been given the highest projections at 14.5.
Who will rise above expectations and who will crash? Gilbert Gardiner and Liam Twomey look at every team.
ADELAIDE
TAB Over/Under: 14.5
Last year: 15
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Beating Port Adelaide and Essendon twice last year flattered the Crows, will be harder in 2018 despite the arrival of Bryce Gibbs. Jake Lever (traded) and Brodie Smith (ACL) massive losses.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
There will be plenty of scars from a horror Grand Final. Add to that Jake Lever and Charlie Cameron are gone and Rory Sloane’s free agency could hang over the club. I like them at a slight under.
BRISBANE
TAB Over/Under: 7.5
Last year: 5
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Loaded with talent coupled with natural improvement and the addition of Charlie Cameron and Allen Christensen should see the Lions climb off the bottom of the ladder.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
Luke Hodge is an out and out star. But even he will struggle to drag the Lions above the over. After losing Rockliff, I have them at about six wins.
CARLTON
TAB Over/Under: 6.5
Last year: 6
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Lots of green shoots and some handy fill-ins, but the Blues lack the firepower and experience to make inroads next season. Only gets harder without Gibbs and Sam Docherty (ACL).
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
Bryce Gibbs is gone and Sam Docherty will miss the entire season. It’s going to be a long year for the Blues.
COLLINGWOOD
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
Last year: 9
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Only just. Should improve on last season but finding three more wins could be a bridge too far in what looks an incredibly even season. Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo setbacks hurt.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The Pies have no choice but to play finals this year. They have committed to Nathan Buckley, have one of the easiest draws in the league and must win at least 12 games.
ESSENDON
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
Last year: 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
A bumper off-season has the Bombers primed for big things in 2018. Expect the Bombers to be in the conversation for the top four.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The Bombers won 12 games last year and added Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad in the off-season. I can’t get enough of this over.
FREMANTLE
TAB Over/Under: 8.5
Last year: 8
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Hard to pencil in wins after the Dockers finished 2017 season with 2-11 record, including three 100+ point blowouts.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Plenty are jumping off the Dockers but I’m staying on. They have a great coach, Nat Fyfe is almost back to his best and they have a huge home ground advantage.
GEELONG
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
Last year:15
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Even if the Cats don’t win the premiership, they’ll certainly be the club with the most Brownlow votes.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
There is no way the Cats are worse than last year. As well as adding Gary Ablett, they play nine games at their Kardinia Park fortress. Sign me up!
GOLD COAST
TAB Over/Under: 6.5
Last year: 6
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
New coach, new ideas, fingers crossed maybe a couple more wins.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
It is going to be a lean year for the Suns. They are in a deep rebuild and don’t play a game at Metricon Stadium until early June. Ouch.
GWS GIANTS
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
Last year: 14
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Will blast the minnows but showed to be vulnerable against genuine premiership rivals. The Giants have too much quality not to win 15+ games.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Although they won a lot of close games last year, I’d rather be on the Giants than off them. They could easily hit 15 wins or more.
HAWTHORN
TAB Over/Under: 10.5
Last year: 10
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Jarman Impey a good get, but the Hawks need high draft picks to reload for another premiership run.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Never doubt Alastair Clarkson. All signs point to the under but Clarko has so many runs on the board, you can’t doubt him.
MELBOURNE
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
Last year: 12
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Under 12.5
Melbourne won 12 games last year and still managed to lose to Fremantle at the MCG, North Melbourne twice and Collingwood. Fix that and top four is on.
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Will want to shore up wins early because the last six rounds pose significant headaches.
NORTH MELBOURNE
TAB Over/Under: 7.5
Last year: 6
Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER
Will fight tooth and nail for wins but with so many Joeys the Kangaroos need to be patient.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
The Roos are a tough team to take the under on because you know you will have to sweat it out. They play hard every week. But if they embrace the rebuild, eight wins is too high.
PORT ADELAIDE
TAB Over/Under: 13.5
Last year: 14
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Recruited well in the off-season, but will need to bank early wins to make up for a much tougher drawn.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The Power won 14 games last year and have added Jack Watts, Steven Motlop and Tom Rockliff. Sign me up for the over.
RICHMOND
TAB Over/Under: 12.5
Last year: 15
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
With a dream draw, playing just two top of the eight teams from last year in the first 10 weeks, the Tigers could cover the line by the mid-season break.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Even with a premiership hangover, Dusty should carry the Tigers to at least 14 wins. Having watched the Bulldogs blow their premiership defence, expect Richmond to be on from Round 1.
ST KILDA
TAB Over/Under: 9.5
Last year: 11
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Four games – Melbourne (twice), Collingwood and Western Bulldogs – will decide St Kilda’s fate in 2018. Anything short of 11 wins could place Saints coach Alan Richardson under enormous pressure.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
Over, over, over. Like Collingwood, the Saints have no choice but to make the finals this year or face some serious heat.
SYDNEY
TAB Over/Under: 14.5
Last year: 14
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Last chance saloon? The Swans have made an art form of starting slowly and building into the season, but with an ageing list and even competition early wins could be invaluable.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The Swans started the year 0-6 and went on to win 14 games. Even if they start slowly again in 2018, they should still clear this number.
WEST COAST
TAB Over/Under: 10.5
Last year: 12
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
A fit and firing Nic Naitanui could see the new-look Eagles push for finals again despite the loss of Brownlow medallists Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis.
Liam Twomey says: UNDER
It’s a rebuild out West. The Eagles farewelled their veterans in the off-season and are now building their next premiership team. Winning 11 games, even with their home ground advantage, will be a struggle.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
TAB Over/Under: 11.5
Last year: 11
Gilbert Gardiner says: OVER
Put a line through last year, everything, and then some, went wrong for the Dogs. Hayden Crozier adds plenty forward of centre, while Josh Schache could be the steal of the trade period.
Liam Twomey says: OVER
The Dogs were a big disappointment last year. Will they bounce back? They won 14 games in 2015 and 15 games in 2016. If they can get anywhere close to playing at that level, this should be an easy over.
Originally published as AFL over/under projections for 2018: How many games will your club win?