Adelaide still most likely to make finals, while Power can start planning for 2020
The Power is just a 15 per cent chance of making the finals, while the Crows and Bulldogs will likely face a Round 23 play off for eighth, according to Champion Data’s analysis.
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Adelaide’s horror loss to Carlton leaves the Crows relying on a round-23 victory over the Western Bulldogs to punch their top-eight ticket but Port Adelaide can forget “mathematical chances” — the Power’s September dream is a bust.
Those are the latest forecasts in Champion Data’s prediction for the race to the finals as the countdown to the 2019 major round hits four rounds to play.
According to the league’s official stats gurus, an “away” elimination final against the GWS Giants awaits Adelaide in the first week of September.
For Port Adelaide, its heart-stopping one-point loss to the Giants on Saturday night has left the Power at just 15-per-cent likelihood of moving beyond the home-and-away season.
Champion Data’s ladder predictor — based on hundreds of computer simulations that factor in ladder position, form, head-to-heads and home-ground advantage — says ninth position (23 per cent) and a repeat of last year’s 10th (21 per cent) are Port’s most likely finishing positions.
Adelaide’s credibility as a top-eight side in 2019 wasn’t all that took a dive in the weekend’s 27-point humiliation against the Blues — the Crows were also the biggest loser across the competition when it comes to their chances of contesting the major round.
Analysts slashed Adelaide’s top-eight hopes by 20 per cent after the loss to Carlton. But ahead of Saturday’s pivotal clash with St Kilda at home, Champion Data still rates Don Pyke’s men a 65-per-cent chance of playing finals.
Champion Data is predicting two more wins to come from what was, at the mid-season bye, considered a dream run home with the Saints, West Coast, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs to come.
West Coast in Perth remains as difficult a road trip as there is, the Magpies are looking to arrest their late-season wobbles while the Dogs have won four of their past five games, including the shock 16-point defeat of Geelong in round 15.
A likely tally of 11 wins would represent just the second time in the past eight AFL seasons that less than 12 wins has delivered any team a finals berth.
Ladbrokes is offering $1.85 on Adelaide to secure eighth spot or better, compared with nearest rivals the Bulldogs, at $4, and Port Adelaide, $5.
Adelaide’s loss to Carlton officially ended the Crows’ unlikely top-four chances, which sat at 11 per cent before the Blues clash.
Champion Data’s numbers say eight (39 per cent) is their most likely finish, followed by seventh (19 per cent) and ninth (17 per cent).