Mick McGuane’s ultimate deep dive into the seven clubs all pushing to play finals

Bombers fans already have plenty of hope for the future but if they can fix one key issue, Mick McGuane says they can rise from 10th and become a threat this year.

It’s time to stop adopting Americanisms into our unique Australian game.

I’m talking about the call for an AFL “wildcard round” to give teams on the fringe of the top eight a last-minute, get-out-of-jail-free card to play finals.

Call me a traditionalist, but that is a concept that accepts and rewards mediocrity.

A team might squeeze into the top eight this year with only 11 wins.

You win just 50 per cent of your games for the season and still get the chance to play in September?

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I struggle with that but the thought of giving clubs a chance to participate in the finals when winning only nine or 10 games due to a wildcard playoff game is ludicrous, so let’s stop the rot now.

Why dilute our product at the pointy end of the season for the sake of a revenue-raising wildcard final?

Toby Greene and the Giants could sneak into the finals this year with 10 wins and a draw.

At some stage there has to be a cut-off point, which exists every season and it’s very clear.

Seven teams can’t fit into the last two spots, yet that is how many clubs are vying for seventh and eighth position on the ladder this season.

It’s a thrilling run home, and that’s the only wildcard type stretch that any of us need.

With three rounds to go, which clubs will seize seventh and eighth?

Right now it’s extremely open.

WEST COAST

I’m not convinced by West Coast. The Eagles are seventh, but could still miss the eight. Their magic number is 100, because they’re 10-1 this year in games they’ve had over 100-plus uncontested marks. That’s their signature style – own the ball and defend with it. Although my concern is their defence and ball movement. They are the two categories they must improve on to play finals, as the opposition are scoring an average 52 points from turnovers per game and they struggle to transition the ball from defence to attack.

Right now they’re a mediocre team. They have a 10-9 win-loss record and sit seventh with a percentage of just 95.9 per cent. On the road this year, they’ve shown a lack of grunt and resilience. Most damning is the fact they’re the worst pressure side in the competition this year. You don’t need talent to chase and tackle. They pick and choose far too often. The burning question is do they really deserve to be there and have they already fallen off the cliff? The jury is out.

The Eagles pick and choose too often.

FREMANTLE

Will the Dockers hold on to eighth? I’m not so sure. Fremantle’s big strength is its stoppage game, but that is not a sustainable scoring source. The Dockers are sixth in the league for points from stoppages from Rounds 12-20. They are also No.1 in the league for not allowing the opposition to score from stoppages. The Dockers are defending stoppages really well as they’re next generation midfielders in Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Adam Cerra are prepared to apply great pressure at the source.

That’s a reason why they’re in contention, but to become a legitimate finals contender, their turnover game must improve dramatically. The Dockers are not scoring enough from the turnovers they create and are also getting scored against far too heavily from their own turnovers. Do they have the skill level to punish teams? And, is their pressure all over the ground and defensive system working as well as Justin Longmuir would like? Not for mine.

GWS GIANTS

The critical number to track with the Giants is their points from turnover differential. When they win that count, their win-loss record is 6-2. When they lose that turnover count, they are 2-9. As much as their stoppage game has historically been a strength, they must establish far greater front-half dominance. It has to become a part of their DNA and identity as a team. Their inside-50 differential from last year to now has improved only one rung from 14th to 13th. In time in forward half they are only 15th.

Finals footy is all about handling the pressure and applying pressure and constant heat on the ball. Friday night against Geelong is their elimination final and they must bring a competitive attitude and a game style that holds up. Their best is good enough but I’m not seeing it enough for them to be genuinely discussed as a top-eight team. In saying that, their destiny is still in their own hands.

ESSENDON

The Bombers must stop the bleeding because defence wins premierships. The Bombers have the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Collingwood to come and they’d fancy themselves in two of those games. They could jump to 10 wins quite clearly and their already strong percentage would remain healthy. They’re a progressive team, hope is clear for all to see and their list is in good order. Although they’re probably in search of a big key defender as Jayden Laverde, Aaron Francis, and James Stewart are all a bit undersized, and right now they’re too leaky in defence.

Essendon’s defence has been giving up big scores. Picture: Michael Klein

Essendon struggles to stop opposition ball movement — the Bombers are ranked 18th in both opposition D50 to inside-50 per cent and opposition defensive 50 to score percentage. Essendon is giving up 84.8 points per game on average, which is 14th in the league. So, a tighter defensive mindset needs to become a priority. They’re currently 10th on the ladder, so if they improve their defence and get harder to score against, they’ll improve that ladder position significantly. Stop the bleeding and they’ll become a significant finals threat.

RICHMOND

The Tigers’ turnover game is in good shape, but it’s got to the point where that it is not enough to register wins. After the bye in Round 14, in their next game they were kept to 2.10 against St Kilda. A week later they kicked only 10.7 against Gold Coast and 11.5 next against Collingwood. In Round 19, it was 8.9 against Geelong and just 6.15 last week against Fremantle. In those five games they’ve lost, Richmond averaged only 53 points per game.

They’ve also had big first-half woes this year. In Round 2 against Fremantle, they were 1.8 at halftime with a goalless second term. In Round 15 against St Kilda when they kicked 2.10, they were kept goalless in the first and last quarters. Let’s not forget their dismal 1.4 first half against the Cats two weeks ago. Why is that? Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt are both hitting the scoreboard, but elsewhere? With no Dustin Martin, where are their other avenues to goal?

Shai Bolton needs to find his best form for the Tigers to make the eight.

They need an igniter. Is it Shai Bolton on the back of signing a new deal? He’s got the chance to enhance his reputation as he’s kicked just two goals in his last four games. Then there’s Jake Aarts and Jason Castagna. Since Round 16 they have kicked only four goals combined. Kane Lambert can hit the scoreboard more and needs to.

Time has come for Damien Hardwick to become more imaginative and try to create other avenues to goal. Does he trust Shane Edwards to play a more permanent forward role and bring his creativity and goal sense to a team that is desperately looking for a spark? He might have to.

CARLTON

Which Carlton side are we going to get this week? They win and then they lose, and on and on it goes. Defensively they still leak far too easily and their win-loss sequence isn’t the formline of a legitimate finals contender. Do clubs deserve to play finals when they’ve can only deliver back-to-back wins on just two occasions? That was back in Round 3 and 4 and then in Round 15 and 16. I’ve always been a firm believer that legitimate finals teams, like Geelong for example, go on five and six-game winning streaks. The Cats, in fact, have won 11 of their past 12 games. That’s the template the Blues must strive for.

It’s about consistency and turning up mentally and physically to play close to your optimum levels. The likes of Sam Walsh, Harry McKay, Liam Jones and Jacob Weitering have mostly done that, but far too many others are inconsistent with their output. That is why we’re seeing this win-lose sequence. After wins the players seem to get too comfortable. Until winning consistently becomes a habit, Carlton cannot be taken seriously when talking finals.

Carlton needs to find consistency to be taken seriously as a finals contender. Picture: Michael Klein

ST KILDA

I’ve referred to them in the past as the Jekyll and Hyde team of the AFL. After a brilliant win against Brisbane in Round 17, they’ve lost their past three games. They had put themselves back in finals contention, but that now appears a distant memory. Their defence from Rounds 11-18 was outstanding, when they were giving up only 63.7 points on average a game. They were ranked No.1 in the league for opposition points from turnovers, so the pressure they brought was fantastic and they were hard to score against. That strong defensive profile stands up in September, but the problem is when defence became a focus they lost their ability to score.

Their conversion rate remains a talking point and it’s cost them on occasions this year. Dan Butler has kicked 16.17, and Jack Billings (14.14), Jack Lonie (4.6) Ben Long (2.9) and Dean Kent (0.5) all must improve their accuracy when shooting for goal. When the Saints are poor, they’re really poor. Do they deserve to play finals? No they don’t, and is why I’m totally against gifting clubs a wildcard opportunity to play finals off the back of mediocre and inconsistent seasons.

Originally published as Mick McGuane’s ultimate deep dive into the seven clubs all pushing to play finals