Mick McGuane: Why Carlton can’t make finals and how Blues can change my mind
Tom De Koning showed what he’s capable of last season, but Mick McGuane thinks there are more ways Michael Voss can use him to break games open. Plus, his reservations on the Blues.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Is Carlton a legitimate finals team?
Some say yes, and they have their reasons as to why, but I don’t think Carlton will play finals despite having a favourable draw.
The Blues still have too many questions to answer. They rely too heavily on too few.
If Charlie Curnow or Sam Walsh go down again, or even worse, they lose Jacob Weitering from their defence, the Blues’ lack of depth on their list will be badly exposed.
Weitering is structurally the most integral player to their team, which already has a big question mark over who can hold down the second key defensive post.
Lewis Young was put on the trade table last year, but if the Blues don’t turn to him as a “horses for courses” selection to play on the opposition monster key forwards, can Nick Haynes or Mitch McGovern get it done? Are they undersized?
Patrick Cripps has played 65 of the last 66 games, and the nightmare scenario for the Blues would be to lose the Brownlow medallist to injury.
It would significantly dilute their stoppage game, but more importantly they would lose their on-field leader.
Cripps is the one who fuels his teammates’ willingness to compete and their will to win.
The Blues’ team defence was, at times, woeful last year – they were far too easy to score against.
They ranked 15th for stifling opposition ball movement from the defensive 50 to their forward 50, and conceded the second-most points against from stoppages.
Room for improvement also lies in how they stop opposition momentum.
For mine, concern also lingers over two heavy investments in Zac Williams, and Adam Cerra, who played only 13 games last season as he was repeatedly struck down by hamstring injuries.
The Blues need these two players to stay fit and healthy so they can exhibit the talent that brought them to the club. To this point, a lot of Carlton fans are questioning their recruitment and the long term contracts they have signed on for.
What do they need to do to ensure they play finals?
There are six problems the Blues must address to convince me they can be a genuine top-eight threat.
HELP FOR WEITERING
The Blues must find an effective mix of backline talls to support Jacob Weitering, who can be the dominant roadblock Sam Taylor was for GWS against Collingwood last week. I admire his work greatly.
Haynes has been brought in as a free agent, but he will turn 33 in May and could not hold down a spot in the Giants’ backline last season. He has been a terrific player but can he turn back the clock?
Between him, Mitch McGovern and Jack Silvagni, the Blues have plenty of hybrid options in defence, but I’m interested in whether Lewis Young gets a look in.
Shopped around at the end of the season, the 202cm Young is set to begin his campaign in the VFL.
But he should at some stage get a chance to prove his worth against the big forwards. He could also be used as their second ruckman, due to Marc Pittonet most likely missing the first six weeks of the season due a calf injury.
MAKE TDK A WEAPON
Coach Michael Voss must find a back-up for Tom De Koning.
De Koning’s ruck deputy could be Harry McKay, but either coach Michael Voss is reluctant to use his second best key forward in the ruck, or McKay is himself.
Whatever route the Blues take with his back-up, one thing I’d like to see more from De Koning when he is in the ruck is to create some chaos for the opposition.
Carlton has an effective pinch hit ruckman at stoppages, especially between the arcs, in Cripps.
This is where De Koning could call on his captain to take ball ups or boundary throw-ins and look to push forward of the ball to become a seventh forward and gain a tactical advantage. It’s a proactive mindset and would certainly get opposition defenders to scramble due to the unexpected chaos it would create.
The likelihood of a mismatch could benefit the team as De Koning has so many strings to his bow – he is athletic, good in marking contests and can hit the scoreboard.
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
The midfield group needs to evolve to address a lack of speed. Can Cripps and Hewett get it done in defensive transition? Do they align themselves to team defence consistently enough when the opposition start to transition the ball?
The need to surround them with dynamic two-way, gut-running teammates is something Voss must look at.
Adam Cerra has got to come back and be a starting mid, and I’m interested to see how many centre bounce attendances Elijah Hollands has this year – he is an aerobic beast, but will unfortunately be absent for a time due to personal reasons.
After two games at the end of last year, Cooper Lord could form part of those early-season midfield plans – can he seize his opportunity?
Former captain Sam Docherty has also been playing in the midfield over pre-season, and might be Voss’ Swiss Army knife as a potential sub option.
We all admire Sam Walsh and his tireless work rate, but is he better suited to start at half-forward and then become a fifth midfielder when the game is in motion?
That role would ask the opposition some serious questions!
The Blues have looked at Zac Williams as a midfielder, and they promised him more of a midfield role when he first came across from GWS.
After selling him that vision, maybe this is the time to find out whether he can add something different to that mix, as his fitness levels are arguably the best they have been since he arrived at Carlton.
Cerra and Williams must elevate their games to justify their hefty pay packets – as we know how much better Cerra made the Blues’ midfield when he hit his straps through 2023.
FORWARD EFFICIENCY
The Blues clearly want more speed in their forward line and ultimately left Matt Owies (33.13) and Matthew Kennedy (16.10) with little option but to head for the door.
It’s one thing to ask for more intent and speed when defending their front half, but when they attack, do any of the remaining small and medium-sized forwards have the nous and hardness to replace the players they have lost?
Owies was adept at moving to the right spots, and could be relied upon to pop up at critical times and convert his opportunities.
Lachie Fogarty, Matt Cottrell and Orazio Fantasia all played between 14 and 15 games last season, and kicked nine goals each – the question remains, are any of that trio capable of increasing their scoreboard output?
Jesse Motlop has the ability to kick multiple goals in games but so far has been a tease and must close the gap between his best and worst.
Having landed at his third club, can opportunist Francis Evans cement a spot in the side and be the answer?
It has been five years since the Blues tried desperately to lure Tom Papley from the Swans and no wonder they were desperate to get him.
Having a high calibre small forward remains the most gaping hole on their list.
Someone must own that position and be that person that becomes another avenue to goal.
PICK THE RIGHT MOMENTS
Finding the right balance of going fast or slow with their ball movement will be crucial for the Blues.
Sometimes they go quick when they should just slam on the brakes and vice-versa.
Carlton becomes disconnected behind the footy on fast break and as a consequence struggles to defend the turnovers that are created.
The Blues’ turnover game improved vastly at times last year and for them to be a legitimate finals contender they must consistently master this all-important scoring source.
The best teams punish their opponents on turnover, and know when to play fast, or when to hold play up to get into position and still have the ability to think their way through.
Carlton’s ball carriers must become better in their decision-making and execution and that should not only bolster their scoring, but importantly improve their ability to defend transition.
PAPER OVER THE CRACKS
Mitch McGovern was once seen as physically fragile, but he has found an impressive consistency over the last two years and is one of the Blues’ most important defenders.
He’s an interceptor that likes to zone off his respective opponent. He doesn’t always play back shoulder and the opposition can attack through his man if he gets the wrong match-up.
Similarly, Adam Saad is defensively vulnerable at stoppages in the Blues’ defensive 50.
A smart opponent takes him up to the stoppages, knowing he tends to ball-watch and often gives up two or three metres and that’s all the best small forwards need to punish him.
The integrity of the Blues’ backline will rely on these two experienced teammates tightening up their games.
Let’s not forget that one of their most consistent and vocal on-field organisers, Nic Newman, will not be there this season. He is a big loss, so someone has to fill the void.
Besides Weitering, who will it be?
More Coverage
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Why Carlton can’t make finals and how Blues can change my mind
Predicted teams live Q&A: Round 1 debuts, bolters and more
Which fresh faces will appear for your club in Round 1? Check out every club’s predicted 23 and chat LIVE with Ed Bourke from 2pm for the latest teams intel.
Shield final in AFL’s hands as Mali pushes back on league
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas spoke with AFL boss Andrew Dillon for a third time about the Adelaide Oval fixture clash on Thursday morning. This is where the decision is at.