Mick McGuane: The big calls Essendon and Collingwood must make ahead of Friday night blockbuster
It’s a blockbuster at the MCG – and we’ll learn a lot about both Collingwood and Essendon tonight, writes MICK McGUANE. Will the real Darcy Moore stand up? The skipper isn’t Craig McRae’s only issue.
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Are the Bombers legitimate flag contenders or top eight frauds? We’re about to find out.
Essendon hasn’t beaten a side that currently sits within the top eight, with the Bulldogs (ninth) being the highest ranked side to lose to Brad Scott’s team this year.
The Bombers’ next fortnight will go part of the way to answering the question, with Friday night’s blockbuster (fourth v sixth) against Collingwood a first trigger-point, followed by a clash with Melbourne the week after.
Win them both, and you’ve got our attention.
Lose them, and it will look like another false red and black dawn that fans are sick and tired of accepting after 20 years without a finals victory.
And as far as Craig McRae’s Magpies go, they too have their challenges, with a long injury list and their place within the top eight under scrutiny after last week’s loss to Gold Coast.
For Collingwood, it all comes down to spreading the pressure load for more than the second half of matches. They can’t keep relying on Houdini-like comebacks.
If they can learn to do that, their premiership defence is alive.
If not, September might prove a bridge too far.
COLLINGWOOD
PRESSURE UNDERPINS THE PIES’ HOPES
Collingwood’s overall pressure is good; but it’s so lopsided in terms of where it comes in games.
Craig McRae is right. The Magpies’ reputation as ‘the comeback kings’ is admirable, but as we saw last week on the Gold Coast, it’s not sustainable week in and week out.
In fact, it’s physically and mentally draining, so there needs to be a change – as soon as this week against Essendon.
Collingwood has the second best overall pressure rating this season (at 186, just behind Carlton), but it needs to hold a more consistent level from the start and middle of matches, and not just have a massive spike at the end when they have to come from behind and win.
The Magpies need to decrease the inside 50s against, which from rounds 11 to 16 saw them give up 55.8 per game on average, ranked 17th in the AFL.
The back seven is holding up relatively well against the tide, with opposition scores per inside 50 being 43%, ranked second, but the defenders could really do with a chop out. And specifically, Darcy Moore would benefit.
The entire team needs to eradicate the inconsistencies around their pressure.
Importantly, they need to get to work earlier and that requires an absolute buy-in from each and every player from the get go.
Their overall game is not in the same shape as it was this time last year, especially in relation to their back to front ball movement.
They were ranked 6th in 2023 in terms of their ball movement from defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage; but this year they are sitting 13th.
Likewise, from half back to inside 50m transition, they were ranked 3rd last year; it is 13th this year.
It’s time for the Magpies to tidy up their ball movement so why not start by challenging a team that is struggling to defend their own turnovers.
There is still time, but the clock is ticking, so what better way to do it than against a team whose pressure and defensive structure has been questioned over a long period of time.
The ball’s in your court, Collingwood.
SPEED, SPEED AND MORE SPEED
Collingwood must play a high octane brand when it possesses the footy and go forward with hands and feet to challenge an area of the game where Essendon has appeared to be vulnerable in the past month.
The Magpies must force turnover through manic pressure and then challenge the Bombers’ inability to defend the turnover they created.
Players like Brody Mihocek, Bobby Hill and Lachie Schultz can all snap into an offensive mindset, and will look to get out the back against Essendon’s pressing defence to score.
The Pies’ offence is in reasonable shape. They are averaging 88.5 points per game, which puts them in the top six teams, with their scores from inside 50 percentage (scoring 47 per cent of the time when the ball goes in, putting them 3rd in the AFL).
They average just under 50 points per game from turnovers (7th overall), and they are averaging five goals (30.3 points) from forward half intercepts (3rd).
That’s a forward profile that would challenge any team, let alone an aspect of Essendon’s game that needs plenty of attention.
Can Essendon’s team defence hold up against an up tempo ball movement team like Collingwood?
CHALLENGES FOR THE TWO DARCYS
The form of Collingwood captain Darcy Moore has been questioned over the past few weeks, so you suspect he will want to make a statement this week.’
On my match-up predictions, I can see him going to Caddy. It’s a great challenge for Moore. One thing I do know, Caddy will compete aggressively with any ball that gets delivered to him. This will suit Moore and bring out his competitive best. It might even get him to start backing himself with his intercept marking ability again. Collingwood are a much better team when Moore is marking the ball from opposition kicks.
He needs this element of his game to return.
The other Darcy, Cameron, has had a good season but needs to be wary of one aspect of Sam Draper’s game.
Draper loves pushing forward, clunking a mark and while he has kicked only two goals himself this season, he can be dangerous at times and give some off.
Cameron needs to defend Draper strongly when the Bomber ruckman goes forward.
The flip side to that is Cameron needs to be proactive and challenge him the other way too. Is Draper match hardened enough to work both ways? I don’t reckon he is at the moment so why not exploit his inability to work both ways. Cameron must look to push hard into Collingwood’s attack, to support Mihocek and Nathan Kreuger, while endeavouring to hit the scoreboard too.
Kicking a couple of goals as a ruckman could be game defining.
This cat and mouse game between Cameron and Draper could play a big role in the outcome of what looms as a crucial match.
ESSENDON
DONS’ SELECTION INTEGRITY
It’s time to take control at the selection table, Brad.
You got it wrong last week – Nate Caddy should have played – and it hurt the team structure against Geelong.
Now a strong decision must be made around who is the club’s primary ruckman and who is the best relief big man.
Caddy has to play against Collingwood, which means the coach must settle on his preferred ruck combination going forward – is it Todd Goldstein-Sam Draper which means leaving out Peter Wright; or Draper-Wright, excluding Goldstein; or Goldstein-Wright, which would see Draper squeezed out of the team.
In a horses for courses approach, against Collingwood, and with the importance of having better flexibility in attack, this time Goldstein must be left out.
Sorry Goldy, you are my sacrificial lamb for this week.
Last week’s ‘too-tall’ approach provided Essendon with no run when the game was up for grabs and the required manic defensive pressure was nowhere near what it needed to be.
Without it, any team defence will be exposed against the best ball movement teams.
Having a more diverse forward line capable of separating and isolating Collingwood’s defence – as Gold Coast successfully did last week – would give the Bombers every chance to divide and conquer.
This would ideally see the following match-ups – Billy Frampton-Wright, Brayden Maynard-Jake Stringer, Darcy Moore-Nate Caddy, and Jeremy Howe-Kyle Langford.
I would be putting the heat right on Peter Wright, who has faced calls for his demotion from fans, and let him know that he has to respond aggressively in this mouth watering clash.
If ‘Two-Metre Peter’ can’t influence a game against a defender like Frampton, then perhaps his spot in the team is untenable.
Essendon desperately needs the 2022 Peter Wright version. Now!
It’s also time to unleash forgotten Bomber Dylan Shiel … the Bombers have forced him to wait and get some form up in the VFL, but he needs to make a big impression, if given a reprieve against the Magpies.
He can provide midfield ball winning ability and outside run, but he has to prove that he is capable of conforming to his coach’s philosophy of team formation over kick-chasing.
It’s not about stats; it’s about sacrifice and team structure. Also, being selfless will endear him to his teammates.
Let’s find out if he is willing to pay the price in a game where Essendon’s defensive intent and structure will be seriously challenged.
IS ESSENDON’S STRENGTH ITS ACHILLES HEEL?
Essendon is a strong territory team, averaging 56 inside 50s per game – 3rd in the AFL.
But they are not getting bang for their buck.
Against a good one-on-one defensive backline such as Collingwood’s, the Bombers will have to be highly efficient when entering forward 50m – or else.
They cannot afford to return 60 inside 50s – as they did against Carlton a few weeks ago – yet score only nine goals, which they did in their 26-point loss to the Blues.
When the Bombers do lose the ball when entering their forward 50m, opposition teams can struggle to get the ball out of Essendon’s forward half of the ground. They have a capacity to generate repeat entries due to a good defensive structure, so they frequently get more looks.
But that’s only half the story.
What is occurring far too often is that they are re-entering in straight lines. It is incumbent on the interceptors to change the angles when re-entering their forward 50 and must look for better usable options, and not just kick the ball back where it came from.
If they play with this intent, it will fuel Collingwood’s intercept game. Playing in straight lines and kicking to a density of players will make it difficult for Wright, Langford and Stringer to have any aerial impact.
Essendon is ranked No.1 for forward-half intercepts since round 12, but tellingly is 13th for efficiency during that time frame.
C’mon Bombers, stop playing table tennis. Be smart, change your angles, look for quick short 45s or get the ball lateral to the open side.
TIME TO FREE THINGS UP FOR ‘RID’ THE INTERCEPTOR
Scotty, you’ve got one of the best intercept players in the game in Jordan Ridley, so it’s time to free him up, especially given you have recruited Ben McKay to play on the big key forwards.
Recently, winning the ball back in their defensive half of the ground is a serious red flag for the Bombers.
From rounds 12 to 16, Essendon has managed, on average, only 41.5 defensive half intercept possessions, ranking 15th in the competition, and only taken on average 10.8 defensive half intercept marks in the same period of time, ranking 14th.
That’s simply not good enough for a team aiming to play finals. It’s time to release Ridley and allow him to play on an opposition forward who might become irrelevant in general play so he can assume the role of being the Bomber’s best interceptor again.
They have gone from a miserly defence where they were sixth in the competition from rounds 7 to 11 to a team that has coughed up scores of 91, 96, 92 and 105 against their past four opponents in Gold Coast, Carlton, West Coast and Geelong.
That’s not good enough!
Also, they are the only top eight team with a percentage of less than 100.
Alarm bells for anyone?
The other component which would help their intercept game is their frontline pressure – and that starts from the forwards.
The Bombers are currently sitting in 18th position – dead last – for points against turnovers in the last four weeks, which is appalling and not where they would want to be.
If they can’t fix that, Collingwood can – and will – make them pay.
TAG TEAM ON ‘DOUBLE D’S’
If I was Brad Scott, I would adopt the ‘double tag’ on Friday night as he did successfully against the Western Bulldogs in round 5.
Back then, he put Sam Durham on Marcus Bontempelli for a period and Jye Caldwell on Tom Liberatore.
It wasn’t the sole reason why the Bombers won the match, but it played a significant part.
Durham would have to curb his almost insatiable appetite for the footy in trying to quell footy’s most dangerous red-time player in Nick Daicos. He must be given the challenge to dilute the impact of Collingwood’s best player.
Caldwell needs to go to Jordan De Goey at stoppages and try to eliminate his first possession wins that can translate into damaging clearances that the Magpies can score from.
Even skipper Zach Merrett shouldn’t be exempt from being part of the solution for the Bombers as he has a high footy IQ, and we’ve seen him defending this season better than he ever has throughout his career.
The Magpies have three players who can do damage late in quarters, and late in games, so Scott must have a contingency in place to cover them or keep them in check.
The Essendon coaching box must have a ‘watch’ on the likes of Daicos, De Goey and even Scott Pendlebury, especially in time-on or even late in the game if it’s in the balance.
Don’t get beaten by what you know.
Too often these Magpies get off the chain when it matters most. They can’t be allowed to get away with that in a game as important as this one.
McGUANE’S TIP: Collingwood by 9
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