Mick McGuane picks your club’s 2025 breakout contender
Which player will go from good to great at your club this season? MICK McGUANE runs the rule over every team and names the players ready to explode in 2025.
AFL
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Every year there are breakout stars in the AFL.
Often they are little-known players who become household names by the end of the season.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has cast an eye over every team to pick out the player he believes can elevate their standing the most in 2025.
ADELAIDE – RILEY THILTHORPE
SuperCoach price: $370,600 (FWD)
Entering his fifth season, this 201cm big man looks ready to spike. A knee injury during pre-season last year meant Thilthorpe only played seven games at the end of the Crows’ campaign. But he grabbed 19 marks inside-50 and kicked 15 goals from those late-season matches – and he should only be better with more continuity this year. Thilthorpe is an immense talent who kicked five goals on debut in 2021.
He has shown the capacity to win contested marks and can provide back-up in the ruck. Adelaide is screaming out for a key forward to take the reins from veteran Taylor Walker and Thilthorpe has all the attributes to do that this year. He is a smokey to win the Coleman Medal.
BRISBANE LIONS – KEIDEAN COLEMAN
SuperCoach price: $269,100 (DEF)
Coleman is set to miss the early rounds after a setback in his recovery from an ACL injury, but I expect him to bounce back strongly when he returns. Who could forget his stellar 26-disposal 2023 grand final performance against Collingwood? Coleman has silky skills and brings creative ball use off halfback, which complements what the Lions have already got in that area of the ground with Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot.
Not only is he a great kick who helps get his side’s counter-attack going, but the 24-year-old also reads the play brilliantly and drops off his opponent to become an intercepting weapon. Coleman should draw inspiration from how teammate Will Ashcroft returned from his ACL last year as he looks to elevate his game in 2025. He will be an asset to the team when he returns.
CARLTON – ELIJAH HOLLANDS
SuperCoach price: $404,900 (FWD)
For Carlton to become a legitimate contender this year, a player like Hollands must be introduced into the onball brigade to complement the ball-winning ability of Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Sam Walsh. The former Gold Coast Suns player featured in 22 games in his first season at the Blues last year, mostly as a high half-forward. But he should be focusing on playing more of a midfield-forward role this year due to his ability to read the play and capacity to find space through his running ability.
In that role, Hollands could also be the goalkicking midfielder that Carlton is desperately aching for. He averaged 17.8 disposals per match and kicked 17 goals last season but has the capacity to lift both of those numbers and influence games more. I just hope he realises the ability he has and doesn’t waste it.
COLLINGWOOD – ISAAC QUAYNOR
SuperCoach price: $315,300 (DEF)
I thought Quaynor was disappointing last season. But I’m confident that this will be a bounce-back season for the defender, who must return to trusting his instincts rather than playing too safe. Quaynor was just as good in one-on-one contests last season but he lost some of his counter-attack. His intercept marks dropped from 2.5 on average per game to one, while his rebound 50s slipped from 3.7 to 2.7.
A lot of opposition focus will go to new Magpies recruit Dan Houston across halfback, which could allow Quaynor to fly under the radar. He looks lighter and fitter over pre-season, while maintaining his strength, power and speed. He will respond and have a great year.
ESSENDON – HARRISON JONES
SuperCoach price: $306,600 (FWD)
The honeymoon period is over, Harrison. The time has come for you to end the tease and deliver. Jones showed his enormous tank and contested marking abilities as he recorded an impressive debut season in 2021, but we haven’t seen him perform consistently enough since. He spent time in a wing role last year, where he could slide back and support the defence.
However, he’s a natural forward who can complement Nate Caddy and Kyle Langford, so I hope coach Brad Scott plays Jones as a target in attack. Jones has the talent to kick 40 or 50 goals in a season, but to do that he needs to set himself high standards and aim to live up to them consistently. Could he be Essendon’s version of Fremantle’s Josh Treacy of last season?
FREMANTLE – JYE AMISS
SuperCoach price: $292,400 (FWD)
Key forwards take time to develop and Amiss is only 21. But the Dockers young gun is on an upward trajectory and I expect him to rapidly improve again in his fourth season this year. Amiss has missed just two games across the past two seasons and has kicked 77 goals from 44 games in that time. He is usually a very accurate shot on goal and possesses natural forward instincts.
He reacts to what is happening further afield and finds space on the back of that, while he is also happy to take front position so he can be trusted in aerial contests. Amiss looks physically stronger this pre-season, which should help him build on the 29 contested marks he took in 2023 and 18 last year. With fellow key forward Josh Treacy and a resting ruckman in Sean Darcy or Luke Jackson set to attract plenty of opposition attention, Amiss could get off the chain.
GEELONG – LAWSON HUMPHRIES
SuperCoach price: $418,500 (DEF)
Plucked from obscurity, this previously overlooked talent produced a debut season that was nothing short of amazing. Humphries played the final 11 games of the year for the Cats – including two finals – and the way he slotted into a winning team proved he was a ready-made player. He looks self-assured and composed, with an innate ability to assess what is around him.
Where others rush to offload the footy, Humphries works and thinks through situations to find a teammate in a better position, seeing options others don’t. Expect his run and carry from halfback to continue to improve as he becomes a staple in Geelong’s best 23.
GWS GIANTS – AARON CADMAN
SuperCoach price: $257,100 (FWD)
Some questioned the Giants’ decision to trade up to pick No. 1 and secure Cadman in the 2022 national draft, but this young key forward is going to be a beauty. He enters his third AFL season having already banked 35 senior games, and on the back of another pre-season in the gym I expect him to be a player we will talk about a lot in 2025. Cadman took 31 marks inside-50 last season to complement Jesse Hogan’s work in attack and can build on his return of 30 goals from 23 games.
He only averaged 68 per cent game time in 2024 as the Giants managed him cleverly, but his minutes should increase as he becomes stronger and fitter. The arrival of Jake Stringer at the Giants could also see Cadman get more favourable match-ups than he has in the past. Coach Adam Kingsley has set him up to succeed and he’s ready to explode.
GOLD COAST – MAC ANDREW
SuperCoach price: $396,900 (DEF)
It’s an obvious pick, but are we about to witness perhaps footy’s most marketable player take the competition by storm? We saw glimpses of Andrew’s immense talent last year as he showed that he can impact at either end of the ground with his natural athleticism and agility. Whether he is used more in defence or attack this season remains to be seen, but if I’m Damien Hardwick I’m mostly playing him at centre half-back as he has the ability to take critical intercept marks.
He also possesses great composure and skills for a 201cm tall. Andrew averaged 14.3 disposals per match last season. If he can lift that to 20-plus touches a game he will have a huge influence for the Suns and show that he’s worth his monster contract.
HAWTHORN – CALSHER DEAR
SuperCoach price: $275,900 (FWD)
A stress fracture in his back will sideline Dear for at least the first month of the season, but I can’t wait to see him return. The key forward had some serious “wow” factor about him on debut last season and impacted games with his competitive nature and want to find front position and give himself the best chance of winning the footy.
He took 17 contested marks across 17 games for the year, despite playing only 68 per cent game time. I hope I am not expecting too much, but I don’t think there will be any second-year blues here. Dear complements the Hawthorn forward line beautifully and any opposition defenders or coaches who underestimate him will be playing with fire. Let’s hope Dear’s body stays sound and allows him to showcase the talent he has.
MELBOURNE – TRENT RIVERS
SuperCoach price: $462,900 (DEF/MID)
I’ve always been a big fan of Rivers, firstly when he came on to the scene as a rebounding defender and then last year when he was injected into the midfield. While Clayton Oliver will be hungry to bounce back and Christian Petracca returns from injury this season, I still expect Rivers to be a permanent fixture in the midfield. He aligns with the way Petracca plays, getting out the front of stoppages, which will allow Oliver and Jack Viney to do what they do best in tight.
His previous role means that Rivers understands what defenders don’t want – easy entries from a lack of pressure up the ground – so he also works hard defensively in transition. Hitting the scoreboard more often is one thing he can improve after only two goals last year. If he masters that, and returns 25-30 goals for the year, he will be in All-Australian squad conversations.
NORTH MELBOURNE – TOM POWELL
SuperCoach price: $432,000 (MID)
Until now, Powell has largely lived in the shadow of the Kangaroos’ other midfielders like Luke Davies-Uniacke. But he’s ideally set up to spike this season after some personal growth in 2024. I see Powell becoming North Melbourne’s version of Sydney’s James Rowbottom. He laid 96 tackles last season, bringing some serious defensive intent to the team’s midfield. I love the way he zigs and zags to buy himself time and space and he sees the game reasonably well.
Expect Powell to feed off the talented Davies-Uniacke and the leadership of recruit Luke Parker as he continues to build belief that he belongs in the midfield. For the Kangaroos to climb, Powell has to take another step forward – and he has the tools to do that. He has had a very solid pre-season so don’t be surprised if he goes to another level in 2025.
PORT ADELAIDE – MILES BERGMAN
SuperCoach price: $418,200 (DEF/MID)
A first-round draft pick in 2019, Bergman has already clocked up 83 AFL games and has made a name for himself as a reliable defender and wingman. But this might be the year we see him change roles and elevate himself into the All-Australian squad. I would urge coach Ken Hinkley to push Bergman at stages into the midfield. I reckon he can be Port’s version of Hayden Young at Fremantle and move from halfback into a prominent midfield-forward role like he played in his juniors.
The word was that Bergman played a little sore last year, but with a clean bill of health he has the capability to become a versatile player and feature in a variety of roles – including transitioning through the midfield and being ready to accept the baton change from Ollie Wines in the guts.
RICHMOND – TOM BROWN
SuperCoach price: $302,000 (DEF)
For Richmond to improve in 2025, the Tigers have to funnel more footy through this young defender. Brown averaged 12.5 disposals from 18 games last season, but can increase that to 20-plus touches per match this year. As much as he competes well defensively one-on-one, the 21-year-old’s biggest asset is his kicking and the Tigers are short of a rebounding halfback after the departure of Daniel Rioli.
Players who can kick the footy well can turn the fortunes of games. Brown is an elite kick so his Richmond teammates should look to give him the ball at every opportunity. If he can find more footy at halfback he will be a weapon and help Richmond’s counter-attack immensely. In what is likely to be another tough year for Tigers fans, expect Brown to be a shining light.
ST KILDA – DARCY WILSON
SuperCoach price: $351,900 (FWD/MID)
I’ve got no doubt that Saints coach Ross Lyon would have loved to have got Wilson onball more last year, but protecting the body of a first-year player would have been front of mind. Wilson was therefore deployed mostly on a wing and across half-forward across his 23 games. But on the back of a second pre-season, I wouldn’t hesitate to put Wilson into centre bounces and go up against bigger bodies in the thick of the action this year.
The fact is Wilson is a better runner than Brad Hill and he can bring the speed and two-way running that the Saints desperately need in their onball brigade. He’s a line breaker and a goalkicker, having booted 15 majors last season. Even if he’s only used onball periodically this year, it is time to release the shackles. Get him around the action, Ross. He won’t let you down.
SYDNEY – MATTY ROBERTS
SuperCoach price: $434,800 (DEF)
This 21-year-old looks a ready-made, 200-plus game player. You only have to go back and look at some of his performances in the second half of last year to see where he is headed. Roberts logged 36 disposals in a round 20 match against the Western Bulldogs and had 31 touches against Adelaide in round 24. Big games like that in the back end of the year provide confidence heading into pre-season and Roberts has worked extremely hard to improve.
His ball use by foot coming out of the back half is elite and he is a high-kick-to-low-handball ratio player. It’s like he wants the responsibility to be the team’s best distributor, in the same mould of players like Bailey Dale and Lachie Whitfield. If opposition clubs don’t put work into Roberts and to try to take away his lethal left foot, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
WEST COAST – ELIJAH HEWETT
SuperCoach price: $122,800 (FWD/MID)
The No. 14 draft pick in 2022, Hewett is a bit forgotten. A foot injury wiped out his 2024 campaign after he had featured in 14 games on debut in 2023. But if he gets his body right, watch out. New Eagles coach Andrew McQualter needs to bolster his onball brigade and Hewett has power and strength which will allow him to complement Tim Kelly, Elliot Yeo and Harley Reid nicely.
With Yeo set to miss the start of the season through injury, I’d be shocked if Hewett was not in the thick of the action early. His preparation has been solid and most importantly there has been continuity. This season might be the making of him.
WESTERN BULLDOGS – RYLEY SANDERS
SuperCoach price: $339,100 (FWD/MID)
Sam Darcy has had a strong summer and could kick 50 goals this year. But for what the Bulldogs need it’s hard to go past Sanders as a legitimate breakout contender. He featured in 14 senior games on debut last year, averaging 16.5 disposals from 66 per cent game time. The Bulldogs need to get Sanders into their starting midfield this year, especially early due to Adam Treloar’s injury.
Sanders looks ready to step up. He has slimmed down over the off-season and is showing an even greater ability to work from contest-to-contest. He wins first possession and is also a sound decision maker and good ball user who can hit a target inside-50 and kick goals on the run. Coach Luke Beveridge must play him every week, providing he stays fit.
Originally published as Mick McGuane picks your club’s 2025 breakout contender
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