Mick McGuane analyses Saturday night’s semi final between Collingwood and GWS
AS brave as Collingwood was against West Coast, they didn’t raise the bar in and around the contest when it was there for the taking. Pie legend Mick McGuane says being brave won’t be enough against GWS. FULL ANALYSIS
AS brave as Collingwood was against West Coast, they didn’t raise the bar in and around the contest when it was there for the taking.
COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Saturday night’s semi final between the Pies and GWS and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost
CONTROL V CHAOS: MCGUANE ON HAWKS-DEES
HOWE: GOLDY’S RETURN LIFTED MAGPIES
WHAT TO EXPECT
COLLINGWOOD
I’m expecting an intense and committed outfit from the first bounce. The Pies let their first final slip and as brave as they were for much of the game, they didn’t raise the bar in and around the contest when it was there for the taking. The Eagles won the clearance count 10-8 in the last quarter, winning contested ball by 13 and ground-ball gets by five. That was the reason for the final term turnaround. That’s not good enough from Collingwood when the game was on the line. I’m certain this will fuel the motivation this week for the likes of Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar, to ensure they lead the way next Saturday.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
You know you will get a fierce stoppage team. That’s a given. The Giants’ midfield group of Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio and Tim Taranto were outstanding against Sydney, not only winning their shares of stoppages, but by applying a high number of pressure acts on the opposition when they won the ball. Their capacity to quickly apply pressure on an opponent’s first possession is a real highlight of their play. Winning the clearances by seven against the Swans was a positive, but to score 43 points to two from stoppages was an absolute smashing. Be aware of that, Collingwood.
COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY
Winning the midfield battle. If they don’t do that, it’s going to be hard work against the Giants, even if Josh Kelly (knee) doesn’t come up for the game as expected. Controlling Shiel, Ward, Coniglio, Taranto, Lachie Whitfield and Jacob Hopper is easier said than done. So it needs to involve a shared responsibility in and around the contest. If the Magpies don’t break even at stoppages, or at the very least, equalise contested possessions, it will equate to losing the territory battle. Collingwood possesses a strong forward-half game, so they must get the cause right rather than the outcome, to get the ball where they are most efficient. Win it in and around the coal face.
THE CHALLENGE
They must win the territory battle. I would look to get a higher kick-to-handball ratio against GWS this Saturday night. It might sound simplistic but a forward mentality, thinking ‘kick’ more so than chaining handballs will increase the team’s inside 50 opportunities. It is no coincidence that teams playing a ‘get the ball forward at all costs’ style — or a long-kicking game — had high I50 differentials in Week One of the finals — Richmond had +29, Melbourne +16 and GWS +24. Yet Collingwood broke even — 51 each — and I just felt the handball was too often invented when a long kick to advantage would have been a better option. It creates predictability, turns opposition players inside out, and forces them to run away from their own goals. It would also give Collingwood the chance to come in behind their attack and set up the ground to squeeze/’bubble’ the opposition. That controls field position.
THE THEME
It’s time to assault the opposition with a barrage of pressure — 80-plus tackles MUST be the benchmark. Collingwood’s power at the opposition ball carrier is generally very good. But reading the cues as to what the ball carrier is going to do next is the critical thing the Magpies need to get right against the Giants. If they fail to shut-out the Giants’ next option, Leon Cameron’s team will be super dangerous on the spread. So the concentration and applications to the defensive pressure phases is critical. I would say the D2 phase (to shut down the next option) is every bit as important as the D1 phase (power at the ball carrier). It’s a delicate balance they need to get right.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
THE KEY
For the Giants, it will be about winning contested possession and clearances signalling their intentions in a cutthroat final. They humiliated the Swans on Saturday, winning the contested possession count by 39 — the 8th best differential in a final. Collingwood will pose a different challenge as it ranks second in contested possession differential and first in clearance differential. Both teams would regard the midfield as their assets, so for the Giants to win, their on-ballers and players in and around the contest must master the dangerous Magpies in Sidebottom, Adams, Pendlebury and Treloar. Depriving the Magpies of one of their best assets will be a key to winning.
THE CHALLENGE
The Giants’ coaching staff will be urging the players to defend and pressure as strongly as they have done all season. Collingwood is a high volume possession team with an emphasis on multiple handball, which invites teams to pressure. The Giants must be up for the fight in this regard. If they aren’t, Collingwood will dominate contested and uncontested possessions, and will be allowed to play the brand of footy they love to. GWS can ill afford to allow the Magpies to win the territory game, as they are ranked first for points scored in the forward half. Pressure at the source is paramount.
THE THEME
‘Play Our Way’. Three simple words, but important ones. The Giants will look to kick the ball more than Collingwood to gain metreage. They will use the boundary and will be intent on turning this game into a stoppage-type contest to play to their strengths. GWS have the second most stoppages whereas Collingwood is ranked 15th, and they also handball their way out of stoppages the seventh least of any team. This might surprise a few, but it is the way they play.
MAGNET BOARD
IF I WAS COLLINGWOOD …
I’d be putting plenty of time into Toby Greene. Look at his stats against the Swans — he’s had 27 disposals, kicked 3.3, had nine marks, and had 612 metres gained, which was the most on the ground. He’s done that in 85 minutes of play. Only five Giants had fewer minutes, and one of them was the injured Kelly, who was gone in the first quarter. Greene’s influence must be diminished. There could be a good opportunity for Brayden Maynard here, and possibly Levi Greenwood and Jack Crisp. They can go hot and cold on him. I’d give them a creative licence to force him to defend (run off him if you can), but also plenty of time to spend completely in his shadow. He is the Giants’ barometer and must be kept in check. Stop Greene, and you go a long way to stopping the Giants. If I was Nathan Buckley, I would tell Brodie Grundy to push forward at every opportunity to force Rory Lobb to defend and also take F50 stoppages where his strength can be used in an area of threat. Tyson Goldsack, who was remarkable in his first game back from a knee reconstruction, will likely get the job on Jeremy Cameron.
IF I WAS GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY …
I would reserve Stephen Coniglio for Collingwood’s most creative, in-form midfielder Steele Sidebottom. It was no coincidence that when Collingwood fought their way back into the contest with West Coast, it was through a brilliant second term from Sidebottom. When he faded out of the game late — which was probably because of fatigue as much as anything else — that’s when the Eagles got the upper hand. That shows how important Sidebottom is to the Collingwood group. Phil Davis, fresh from his superb job on Buddy Franklin, will take either Brody Mihocek or Mason Cox.
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 15 points.
Originally published as Mick McGuane analyses Saturday night’s semi final between Collingwood and GWS
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