Melbourne’s No.3 the best pick in this year’s AFL draft, history shows
Gold Coast might hold the prized pick 1 at this year’s draft, but another selection has proven even more valuable over the past decade. See the best and worst draft picks — and where your club is placed.
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Melbourne holds the best pick in this year’s AFL draft according to recent history, with pick 3 proving a more successful selection over the past decade than the two picks ahead of it.
A Herald Sun analysis of the first 60 selections at each of the past 10 national drafts shows that players selected at pick 3 have played more games than those selected at any other number.
Richmond star and Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin was taken at pick 3 in 2009 and has played 224 games – more than any other player in his draft pool.
Other players selected at No.3 include Melbourne’s Angus Brayshaw, St Kilda’s Jack Billings, Sydney’s Callum Mills and Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage.
Overall, players selected at pick 3 in the draft have played 914 games over the past decade.
Players taken at pick 5 – including Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey, Essendon’s Jake Stringer and North Melbourne’s Ben Cunnington – rank second for total games played with 851.
Pick 14 – held by Geelong this year – has surprisingly proven to be the third-best pick with 846 games. Players recruited there including West Coast’s Lewis Jetta, Adelaide’s Brodie Smith, Melbourne’s Jake Lever and Brisbane’s Eric Hipwood.
The No.1 selection ranks fourth with 838 games and includes Hawthorn’s Tom Scully, Gold Coast’s David Swallow, Giant Lachie Whitfield and Carlton’s Sam Walsh. But unfortunate setbacks to No.1 picks Paddy McCartin, Tom Boyd and Jonathon Patton have impacted the average.
Overall, players taken inside the top 30 at the draft have played more than twice as many games on average as those taken between picks 31 and 60.
“The first two rounds are important to get picks right for a club because that’s where the talent is,” former Hawthorn recruiter Gary Buckenara said.
“The depth in this draft is pretty good and goes into the third round but after that, that’s where the eye for talent comes in.
“You’ve just got to look at where the upside might be with players. You’ve got to look into the crystal ball and see what they might look like in an AFL system in two or three years’ time.”
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Pick 26 – held by North Melbourne this year – has proven to be one of the best bang-for-buck selections for clubs, ranking ninth for games played.
Melbourne’s Jack Viney, Essendon’s Zach Merrett and West Coast’s Jack Darling were all taken at pick 26.
Clubs have also found some diamonds in the rough at pick 58, which punches above its weight ranking 33rd overall and includes players like Brisbane’s Lachie Neale, Giant Matt De Boer and Collingwood’s Tom Phillips.
Of the first-round selections, No.12 has proven the biggest bust, ranking 40th for games played.
Players taken at pick 12 include former Melbourne-listed forward Lucas Cook (0 game), former Greater Western Sydney and Carlton forward Kristian Jaksch (14 games) and former Richmond forward Ben Lennon (21 games).
Port Adelaide has pick 12 this year.
BEST 5 DRAFT PICKS (2009-18)
Pick 3 – 914 AFL games played
Pick 5 – 851 AFL games played
Pick 14 – 846 AFL games played
Pick 1 – 838 AFL games played
Pick 7 – 837 AFL games played
WORST 5 DRAFT PICKS (2009-18)
Pick 50 – 96 AFL games played
Pick 51 – 129 AFL games played
Pick 39 – 132 AFL games played
Pick 59 – 159 AFL games played
Pick 36 – 177 AFL games played
BEST VALUE DRAFT PICKS (2009-18)
Pick 58 – ranked 33rd for games played
Pick 40 – ranked 22nd for games played
Pick 53 – ranked 35th for games played
Pick 26 – ranked 9th for games played
Pick 37 – ranked 20th for games played
Originally published as Melbourne’s No.3 the best pick in this year’s AFL draft, history shows