History is against Panthers as they face AFL-rich Crows side
SOUTH Adelaide must defy recent SANFL history when it takes on an Adelaide side packed with AFL talent at Noarlunga on Saturday.
SOUTH Adelaide must defy recent SANFL history when it takes on an Adelaide side packed with AFL talent at Noarlunga on Saturday.
The Panthers will face an Crows side featuring 17 AFL-listed players which, statistically, is beyond the critical threshold of professional level talent with which a state league team can contend.
Adelaide has been winless in the SANFL this season when it has fielded less than 14 AFL listed players.
It has played just one match with either 14 or 15 players — for a win against struggling Sturt.
Once the Crows have 16 or more professional players they became frighteningly formidable, having won all four matches by an average of 53 points.
The numbers show the challenge the SANFL faces in ensuring the AFL sides do not compromise the integrity of the local league.
For example, Central District — South Adelaide’s main challenger for fifth position — has banked two wins against Crows sides featuring only 11 and 12 AFL listed players.
The roulette nature of when teams play the AFL sides is a known bone of contention with some state league officials and staff.
Eagles coach Michael Godden and his men have a 2-1 record against the AFL reserves sides this year and he says he enjoys the challenge of playing them.
In his opinion, 16 AFL-listed is about the tipping point between a good and an “elite” SANFL side but he said personnel was a factor.
Adelaide’s side which has won three matches on the trot in recent weeks has featured big-bodied midfielders such as Cameron Ellis-Yolmen, Nathan Van Berlo and Sam Kerridge, and their ability to force clean exits from stoppages has been noticeable.
“I think we all acknowledge that when they have 16 or more AFL-listed players they are at an elite SANFL standard,’’ Godden said.
“Once they slip under 16 players it can start to affect the quality of their performance.”
Godden said the ability of AFL sides to transition the ball with minimal turnovers made them challenging.
“A state league side might give you 10 unforced turnovers in a quarter where as an AFL side might give you five,’’ he said.
Port Adelaide’s AFL contingent has only slipped below 16 once this year.
The Magpies have five times been beaten with a side featuring 17 AFL players, showing their critical threshold is different to Adelaide’s.
The age profile of the Magpies became younger when the Power delisted mature players such as Lewis Stevenson and Campbell Heath last year.
THE AFL FACTOR
Number of state league players — win-loss record
Adelaide Crows
13 or less AFL listed players — 0-8
14-15 AFL listed players — 1-0
16 or more AFL listed players 4-0
Port Adelaide
16+ — 7-5
14-15 — 2-0
SANFL SATURDAY
Central District v Sturt
Playford Alive Oval, 2.10pm
North Adelaide v Port Adelaide
Prospect Oval, 2.10pm
Radio: 5RPH
South Adelaide v Adelaide
Hickinbotham Oval, 2.10pm
Radio: Life FM