Leading bookie tips Brownlow winner to poll close to 30 votes on Monday night

A LEADING bookmaker expects Cat Joel Selwood to poll close to 30 Brownlow votes on Monday night.

IN WHAT is shaping to be an ultra-high vote-winning count, a leading bookmaker expects Geelong captain Joel Selwood to poll close to 30 Brownlow votes on Monday night.

But will that be enough to stop Gary Ablett from winning the medal for a second time?

Betstar's Alan Eskander said Ablett will start a deserved favourite.

But he said questions still remain over the Gold Coast skipper's vote-getting ability in a lowly team.

"Ablett is a good risk at $1.85," Eskander said.

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"He's easily our worst result at Betstar and we’re going to go on with him ahead of Monday night.

"He’s has had a fantastic year, but the question remains, can he poll enough three votes given his side only won eight games for the season?

"It's very rare that a player from a team outside the top eight wins the Brownlow. Since 1990 there have only been three in, Jobe Watson last year, Shane Crawford and Paul Kelly.

"Joel Selwood will be on fire early in the count, we have him polling plenty of three-vote games and think he will end up with around 27 or 28 votes.

"That could be enough to take 'Charlie' home."

Former Hawthorn captain Sam Mitchell has been the big market mover in recent days.

The Hawks midfielder opened at $17 then drifted out to $26, but has been backed into $9.50 over the past week.

"He started to shorten a fortnight ago, but punters were in a frenzy for him on Thursday and Friday," Eskander said.

"He's a proven vote-getter but he's into a silly price now. We have to take him on at single figure odds."