Jon Ralph’s ladder and predictions for the first six rounds of 2024
It’s set to be the tighest AFL ladder in years, but whic non-finalist from 2023 will get the early jump on a finals chance next year? Jon Ralph predicts how the ladder could look early next season.
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Seventeen years ago Anthony Hudson thundered his approval that the sequel to the epic 2005 Grand Final had been just as good as the original.
‘Huddo’ better spend the next 12 months coming up with something special because nothing will eclipse the 2023 grand final.
We surely aren’t getting Godfather II or The Empire Strikes Back.
It was an impossible-to-top grand final with insanely good goals and momentum shifts in a season full of shock upsets, a Rising Star battle with twists and turns and a jaw-dropping Brownlow Medal finish.
And yet if Andrew Dillon will have a hard task in many ways following Gillon McLachlan – oozing charisma and keen to steal all the legacy moments as he departed – the new boss has a secret weapon.
If West Coast and North Melbourne can get their act together and win 10 games between them this might be as close a season as we have seen in the modern era.
SCROLL DOWN FOR RALPHY’S PREDICTED WINNERS AND LADDER
Tasked with the unenviable job of picking the ladder order and winners of the first six rounds the previous November – talk about a tough act – two things become clear.
Good luck predicting which of eight legitimate finals contenders which missed finals this year will squeeze into the last spot in the eight.
And watch out for some recent flag contenders to fight hard to stay out of the bottom four considering the extraordinary evenness of the competition.
As recently as 2018, the bottom four teams after 23 rounds were Brisbane (15th with a 5-17 win-loss tally), St Kilda (16th and 4-17), Gold Coast (17th and 4-18) and Carlton (2-20).
Brisbane and Carlton were easybeats, Gold Coast was an embarrassment, St Kilda was stuck in another rebuild.
Six years on the Blues and Brisbane have come off a classic preliminary final encounter, Gold Coast is as progressed as it ever has been and the Saints will be at the heart of that finals logjam.
Last year Gold Coast finished fourth-last and yet they won nine games, with Hawthorn finishing 16th despite a 7-16 win-loss record.
So the competition is tightening up.
Fewer teams on interminable 6-8 year rebuilds, fewer premiership winners driving at full speed off a list cliff in sake of one more flag, more teams using all the list allowances at their disposals to build elite lists with finals-worthy talent.
Every one of this year’s top eight on paper have grounds to improve – even Melbourne despite the question marks over their 2023 season.
And the teams in 9th-15th all have legitimate finals claims even if Richmond and Geelong will go into 2024 aware many are labelling them old and washed up after so much premiership glory.
Port Adelaide will be disappointed if it does not explode into the 2024 season given the first six rounds hand the Power four Adelaide Oval clashes – West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle – plus a winnable MCG clash against Richmond.
Round 6 brings the premiers at the MCG but the Power would hope to be unbeaten by then – and with a round 7 home clash against St Kilda.
Melbourne will believe it is a premiership force if it can put a summer of dramas behind it.
But the first six weeks are so tough – Sydney away, the Dogs and Hawks, then Port Adelaide AND Adelaide away, then Brisbane at the MCG.
Turn anything less than 3-3 and the jungle drums will start beating early.
And Adem Yze’s bid to replicate the GWS march up the ladder as a first-year coach faces early challenges.
Gold Coast away, then finals contenders Carlton Sydney and Port Adelaide before 2023 finalists St Kilda and then West Coast.
Hawthorn? They are a legitimate question mark given their 2023 season was such a rollercoaster – amazing upsets over St Kilda, Collingwood and the Dogs yet nine losses by six goals and three more by over four goals.
Yet in adding Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and premiership star Jack Gunston with 12 more months of development no one would be surprised if they won 10 games.
So often we have gone into a season with four to six teams in full-blown rebuild mode.
This year everyone knew the Eagles and Roos would be an embarrassment, the Hawks would finish bottom four and believed GWS and Essendon would struggle given the time it would take for new coaches to acclimatise.
Instead Essendon and the Giants were revelations – at least until the Dons’ late capitulation.
And a year on those teams in the chasing pack should all believe they are finals bound.
Essendon, having fixed its defence with Ben McKay and added key talent across every line.
Adelaide, aware it must combine natural improvement from the 19-23 year old brigade (Josh Rachele, Max Michalanney, Riley Thilthorpe, Luke Pedlar, Jake Soligo) AND eke another monster year from Tex Walker.
The Western Bulldogs, who to be blunt will surely remove their senior coach if he misses finals in back-to-back seasons with the list of talent they have at their disposal.
And Gold Coast.
If we are honest, this club has dished up a decade of excuses with some of them valid and some of them lame.
Too young, unlucky with injuries (Gary Ablett), then salary cap too overburdened, then the wrong coach (Guy McKenna, then Rodney Eade then Stuart Dew).
Then unfairly raided by heartland clubs as the twin captains departed in one year.
Now that Damien Hardwick is on board and the list is absolutely stacked the excuses have to stop.
Put up or shut up.
So Dillon and his fixturing team have put together a season with wall-to-wall Thursday nights until round 15 and two gimmicks in Gather Round and “Opening Round”.
But it might be the evenness of the season which is the league’s greatest weapon as Dillon attempts to continue the game’s remarkable hot stream post-Covid.
Originally published as Jon Ralph’s ladder and predictions for the first six rounds of 2024
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