‘I trust Collingwood; I don’t trust the Giants’: Mick McGuane’s expert analysis of Friday night’s massive game
Collingwood blew it against GWS in last year’s preliminary final. Ahead of their rematch, Mick McGuane reveals why he has more faith in the Magpies after the Giants’ ‘BS bravado’ last week.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
If I was a Collingwood midfielder I would have had last year‘s preliminary final loss to Greater Western Sydney on high rotation this week.
It was the one that got away.
You never get games back, but if that four-point finals loss doesn’t provide a competitive trigger for Friday night’s clash against the Giants, nothing will.
Put simply, the Magpies blew it.
The pivotal reason was the failure of the Pies’ midfield-to-ruck connection.
It seemed as if every hitout Brodie Grundy won that day – he had 73 of the Magpies’ 78 – the Giants more often than not won control of the ball.
The Magpie midfielders – including stars Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams – couldn’t change the narrative.
Collingwood had 78 hit-outs to 16. Yet the Magpies’ clearance differential was -19, with 35 to 54 clearances in wet conditions.
Kayo is your ticket to the 2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Watch every match of every round Live & On-Demand. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly
To give up 4.5 from stoppages to 1.2 (a 21-point deficit) was unforgivable. It cost Collingwood a Grand Final berth against Richmond.
Nathan Buckley said on Thursday he was reluctant to dwell on the past.
That’s fine from a team perspective, but the pride in me as an individual would make me revisit it to see what went wrong and to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
A review of all the preliminary final stoppages, positioning of the midfielders and Grundy‘s reluctance to hit the ball on the outside of congestion should have been a massive focus.
Don’t be fooled twice.
TRUST V DOUBT IN 2020
I can trust Collingwood‘s brand; I’ve got serious doubt about the Giants at the moment.
The Magpies’ turnover and stoppage game looks healthy.
In contrast, the Giants have lost two strengths – their stoppage dominance and their ball movement is now slow and boring.
They lost the clearances to the Kangaroos and the Bulldogs. As a consequence, they are playing the game in the back half.
The Giants had 270 disposals last week – 197 in the defensive half. No wonder they only had 29 inside 50s.
They conceded 80 per cent of their turnover scores out of the back half and couldn’t get their offensive game going.
What sort of shift is required by Leon Cameron to get the Giants’ attacking mojo back?
They need to run-and-gun more with hands, which would generate more run and overlap, but more importantly, they change the angles with more corridor risks.
BALL V ‘BS BRAVADO’
Collingwood’s focus will be on the footy. But who knows about the Giants?
The Giants tried to manufacture a bulls--t bravado last week, in an effort to assault Marcus Bontempelli and others, which meant they were second to the ball.
Take a look at that first goal kicked by Josh Dunkley.
Jacob Hopper hit Dunkley on the back of the head. Clearly, it was a free kick. Then Giants captain Stephen Coniglio remonstrated and gave away a 50m penalty.
Wrong focus, skipper!
It was dumb footy and the gift-wrapped goal one minute and 19 seconds into the game.
The Giants will target Pendlebury or Sidebottom on Friday night, but must do so wisely.
Tackle with intent but within the rules.
The Giants tackled like turnstiles last week. You could walk through their spaghetti arms.
Being first to the ball must be a non-negotiable.
They failed the defensive test with only 39 tackles last week.
Experience is a hard teacher. It gives the test first and the lesson afterwards. Let’s see if the GWS players are quick and observant learners to get back their mojo.
WORKING CLASS MAN V MILLION DOLLAR MAN
Collingwood has a blue-collar no-name forward in Brody Mihocek; the Giants have million dollar man Jeremy Cameron.
Their current output doesn’t match their pay cheques right now.
Mihocek’s assault on the footy last week was his team’s barometer.
There is nothing better than seeing a key forward approach a marking contest with venom, leaving those in the contest shaken and stirred.
I can’t say the same for Cameron, who played bruise-free footy against the Dogs.
He lacked presence and competitiveness.
As a key forward, it’s imperative if you don’t mark it, you CANNOT get out marked.
Too often Tim English sat in the hole and impacted the air with no consequences last week.
If Cameron or Jeremy Finlayson or Harry Himmelberg allow Grundy to do that, it will be game over.
RUCK BATTLE
With the Giants having brought in Shane Mumford, we get the same ruck battle we did in last year’s preliminary final with ‘Mummy’ up against Brodie Grundy.
In that game, Grundy had 73 hitouts (13 to advantage) to Mumford’s 14 (four to advantage).
Grundy also had 25 disposals and 10 clearances to Mumford’s eight disposals and three clearances.
While Mumford might bring a harder edge around the contest for the Giants, there will be question marks over his match fitness and Grundy should be able to once again dominate hitouts to advantage.
In general play, I’d urge Grundy to test Mumford’s mobility by pushing hard forward to be an attacking weapon as an extra marking target in the forward 50m.
This is a chance for Grundy to again present his case as being the best ruckman in the competition and the most important player at Collingwood.
CHANGE YOUR TECHNIQUE, LACHIE
If there was a loose ball with Taylor Adams and Lachie Whitfield charging towards it, who goes the hardest?
The universal opinion would be Adams.
Whitfield needs to change that perception.
Don’t give me that he has a reason not to go this week because he was concussed last week.
If Whitfield had bodylined the ball against Aaron Naughton last week instead of trying to pluck it into his possession, he wouldn’t have been subbed out.
It doesn’t matter who you are! You must ‘Take your turn to go when you have to.’
The respect you get for going where angels fear to tread outweighs the pain of a physical bump.
Just ask Jonathan Brown or Nick Riewoldt!
We don’t want to see you concussed, Lachie, so change your technique. Be harder and stronger at a loose footy.
MORE AFL
AFL fixture: Rounds 6 and 7 revealed, tough rules for Collingwood and Geelong in WA hub
Hall of Fame Legend and Hawthorn icon John Kennedy Sr passes away
Conor McKenna and James Stewart must complete quarantine despite testing negative for COVID-19
THE INTERCEPT KINGS
Everyone quite rightly raves about Jeremy Howe’s aerial supremacy, but Nick Haynes flies under the radar and their numbers are not dissimilar.
Haynes is a star of the competition.
Collingwood has to be conscious of how they enter their forward 50m to take away Phil Davis and Haynes‘ intercept supremacy.
Irrespective of history or recent events, tonight’s game will be all about the contest.
Originally published as ‘I trust Collingwood; I don’t trust the Giants’: Mick McGuane’s expert analysis of Friday night’s massive game