Gunslingers v shutdown specialists: burning questions ahead of the Grand Final

WHO will best absorb the pressure and who will cash in on their chances? The team that does walks away with a premiership.

Jarryd Roughead

WHO will best absorb the pressure and who will cash in on their chances?

They are the burning questions which are likely to decide Saturday’s AFL Grand Final between the best attacking team (Hawthorn) and the best defensive side (Fremantle).

One factor is almost certain - the attack-minded, potent Hawks will have more inside-50s.

But can they make them count?

Hawthorn lost last year’s grand final to Sydney by 10 points despite dominating inside-50s 61-43.

It had no trouble getting the ball inside its attacking arc but it just couldn’t kick it through the big white uprights, finishing with a modest 11.15 (81).

In contrast, the Swans took their chances, kicking 14.7 (91). Crucially, half of their inside-50s resulted in scores.

Dominating the inside numbers in a grand final is fast becoming a curse.

Apart from the Hawks’ demise, Collingwood failed to win the drawn 2010 grand final despite finishing with 27 more inside-50s than St Kilda.

The Saints lost the 2009 decider to the Cats while finishing with a +16 inside 50 differential while in 2008 Geelong fell to Hawthorn despite winning inside-50s by a hefty 19.

The stats show there is no point getting the ball inside your attacking zone if it’s going to be rebounded.

The AFL could not have asked for a more intriguing grand final match-up between two more contrasting teams.

Hawthorn’s star power is in attack where Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli and sharpshooter Jack Gunston loom large.

It has averaged 113.6 points a game this season – 7.2 more than any other team.

Cyril Rioli

The Hawks average 56.1 inside-50s a game – ranked second.

Once inside they score a goal 29.9 per cent of the time, also ranked second.

In contrast, Fremantle ranks 11th in points scored at 92.5 a game.

But its defence is watertight.

The Dockers have conceded an average of just 69.4 points – 9.4 fewer points per game than any other team.

They concede just 44.4 inside-50s a game – ranked No.1.

And once the opposition gets the footy inside its 50m defensive zone they are the equal hardest to score a goal against, conceding a major just 22.2 per cent of the time.

What the stats highlight is that even if the Hawks dominate the midfield battle like they did against Sydney last year, Fremantle is best equipped to hold on and stay in the game.

Its defensive success is built from playing an extra man or two behind the ball and maniacal forward line pressure which means the majority of ball which lands in its defensive 50 is rushed and not pinpointed to a target.

“It’s a manic pressure we’ve never seen applied, with or without the ball, by any team in the history of the game,” said four-times premiership coach David Parkin.

“They’re exceptionally well-coached.

“I’ve never seen another coach be able to get a team so completely committed to the method of play.”

Chris Mayne laid a record 13 tackles for a forward last week, including 10 inside his attacking arc, highlighting how tough it is for opposition defenders to move the ball crisply from their back half.

“I think what makes the team work really well is that everyone knows their role within the team,’’ veteran midfielder David Mundy said.

In contrast, if Freo wins the battle in the middle the Hawks are a little more vulnerable.

Hawthorn conceded 83.5 points a game – ranked fifth in the competition.

It conceded a goal once inside 50 25.8 per cent of the time – ranked ninth.

But in last week’s thrilling five-point preliminary final win, Alastair Clarkson’s outfit conceded a goal from 35.7 per cent of Geelong’s forward entries, showing it can be vulnerable down back.

It sets up an intriguing game of cat and mouse.