Garry Lyon: Examining the succession plans of Sydney and Hawthorn

If Sydney’s was a “conscious uncoupling”, Hawthorn’s succession plan was more War of the Roses. As GARRY LYON writes, the Hawks have finally emerged from Alastair Clarkson’s shadow.

“Breaking up is never easy, I know, but I have to go, knowing me, knowing you, it’s the best I can do”.

— ABBA, Knowing Me, Knowing You

I doubt Sam Mitchell will be reciting lines from the classic ABBA song if he crosses paths with new Sydney coach Dean Cox on Friday night, but the sentiment remains true.

Mitchell assumed the head-coaching role after legendary four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson read the room, leaving after 17 mostly glorious years.

Cox will coach game No. 1 after the 14-year reign of John Longmire ended last year with a premiership in the cabinet, five trips to the grand final and the universal love and respect of the broader football community, but in particular, the Sydney Swans Football Club.

And, yes, breaking up with your club is never easy, but that’s where the similarities between these two handovers end.

Alastair Clarkson and Sam Mitchell at the press conference to announce their coaching handover. Picture: Tony Gough

If Longmire-to-Cox was footy’s version of an amicable “conscious uncoupling”, the Clarkson-to-Mitchell succession was more War of the Roses.

Regardless, the challenges are inherent, and as Mitchell has demonstrated in quick time, be it rocky or smooth, it’s what happens next that matters most.

Eight wins in his first year, seven the next and then 15 on the way to his first finals series in 2024.

In the space of three seasons we witnessed different incarnations of Mitchell’s Hawthorn side that suggested he was prepared to tinker with the way he wanted to play, finetuning a game plan that from round 8 onwards last year had them as just about the benchmark team in the competition in so many different areas.

In that three-year period they have variously been poor at the clearance game – and scoring from clearance – but exceptional in the post-clearance game.

In 2022, they were extremely efficient with the ball when they had it, they just didn’t get it enough.

Mitchell led a resurgence from the Hawks after a 0-5 start to 2024.

In 2023, they found plenty of the ball, second for disposals per game, but their scoring efficiency fell away.

That brings us to 2024 and a one win-six loss scoreline. This is where the mettle of the coach is tested. Mitchell knew he had a capable list, he was steadfast in his support and defiant in his optimism. He had the evidence, it just hadn’t all presented itself at the one time.

What happened next was every bit as exciting and precocious, fun and carefree, naively and gloriously arrogant as any football we’ve seen from a side in quite some time.

They went on a 14-win-and-four-loss wild ride that catapulted football into its TikTok era, dragging the older generation of supporters kicking and screaming, along for the ride.

In that period they were the No. 1 scoring team in the competition, No. 1 for converting an inside-50 to a goal and No. 2 for moving the ball from the back half.

They also got their hands dirty, No. 1 for centre-bounce differential and No. 4 for contested ball differential.

Isaac Heeney flies against the Hawks last year. Picture: Michael Klein

And they didn’t sleep on the defensive aspects. They conceded the fewest points of any side in this period and they were the hardest team to score against from a defensive half-chain.

It was exhilarating and it was a profile that promises to serve them well.

The additions of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle undeniably make them stronger. Mitchell now has, at his disposal, five of the top 11 defenders in the competition, as per Champion Data’s 100x measurement (rating points earned per 100 minutes playing in each position).

Jack Scrimshaw, James Sicily and Josh Weddle will welcome Barrass and Battle with open arms. It affords Mitchell the luxury of deploying the sublimely talented Sicily and Weddle wherever they may be needed most. One suspects, in the opening month, that may be forward as they await the return of Calsher Dear and eventually Mitch Lewis.

They are the spruik team of the competition for good reason. The break-up with Clarkson was a tough period to negotiate for the Hawks. It was always going to be for a man of his standing. But life is returning to normal at Hawthorn. And normal for Hawthorn is finals, and in time, flags. You wouldn’t bet against them.

Dean Cox has a big job to lift Sydney back into premiership contention after its Grand Final disaster.

Cox’s ascension to the head coaching role has been far more conciliatory, but not without its trauma. Longmire is a loved and revered figure in the game, and to see vision of him post the devastating destruction in last year’s grand final at the hands of the Lions was heartbreaking. To know that the 60-point slaughter came after an 81-point annihilation just two years earlier against Geelong was to appreciate the toll the game inflicts even more acutely.

Longmire wasn’t pushed, he wasn’t pressured into making his call, he just knew it was time.

It affords Cox a smooth and seamless handover. However, it affords him no easy ride.

The Swans did most things brilliantly last year. Their start to the season had them 13-and-1 at the bye. That Richmond was the one loss remains the mystifying tale of 2024.

The drop-off in the back half of the year was almost predictable. The Swans’ hunt and pressure disappeared, and so did the wins.

Maintaining that level of intensity for the entirety of the season is becoming increasingly unlikely. Opposition clubs began to deny them the ball via uncontested marks, with the Lions ramming that home on grand final day, taking a staggering 145, the most conceded by Sydney in three years.

Dean Cox and John Longmire’s handover was amicable. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

The positives for Cox is the offensive outlook, based on 2024, is in such good order – No. 1 for points, scores per inside 50, points from turnover and points from forward half, and No. 2 for points from stoppages and points from defensive half, which is not to say it’s perfect.

Can Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean be part of a premiership forward six? Tom McCartin has trialled as a key forward during the pre-season, which can be seen as cover for McDonald or a sign that Cox has some misgivings about his big forward set-up.

What he does have at his disposal – after 14 years of Longmire – is the uncertainty that a new voice and presence brings to the role. Cox is well-known, of course, given his eight years as an assistant, but this is different.

The environment changes immediately after the new coach is announced.

I loved the story of the early time trial, with players pushing themselves to exhaustion, no doubt wanting to impress the new coach. As they collectively struggled for breath at the completion, the Cox called for them to the starting line for another round.

It just sent a message early on in the piece: “You might think you know me, you might think you can anticipate what the year will bring with a new voice at the helm, but be prepared to be challenged in a whole different way.”

It was subtle, it was demanding, it was, maybe, confronting and it removed the comfort zone from the equation.

The Cox era begins Friday night. Bring it on.

Originally published as Garry Lyon: Examining the succession plans of Sydney and Hawthorn